The independents who provided the lift for the Democrats' soaring political fortunes in 2006 and 2008 are abandoning the Democratic party. The new Pew poll has Obama's job approval rating at 51 percent, and finds that "Independents, who approved of Obama’s job performance by nearly two-to-one in June (56 percent to 29 percent) are now about evenly divided: 45 percent approve while 43 percent disapprove."

Nationally, the Republicans have not benefited fully from the independent out-migration. But at the state level, the shift is helping the GOP's fortunes. Republicans lead in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, and Tom Bevan notes at the RCP blog that Bill McCollum, a Republican candidate to replace Gov. Charlie Crist in 2010, leads Democrat Alex Sink by 4 points, "due almost exclusively to a big swing among Independents."

Why the change? It must have something to do with Obama's governance to date. My guess: the man who campaigned as an advocate for a "new" bipartisan politics has proven to be a partisan, liberal Democrat. People still like Obama, they just don't like his policies.

Independents still support Obama, but they are headed in a direction that no doubt worries the White House. Maybe Obama will reassert his connection with these voters; maybe not. But their exodus serves as a reminder that American politics is determined by people who do not identify with a concrete set of partisan and ideological commitments.

Rasmussen released results of a new national poll yesterday showing Americans put more faith in the concept of free market capitalism than they do in our national leaders’ ability to apply it. According to the poll:

Forty-four percent (44%) of Americans agree with President Bush’s declaration last week that "free-market capitalism is far more than an economic theory. It is the engine of social mobility - the highway to the American Dream."

The same survey found that just 22 percent disagree with that sentiment, while 33 percent are undecided.

As a pollster I know it’s sometimes hard to separate the “message” from the “messenger.” So in this case, given President Bush’s low approval ratings and the economic meltdown over the past two months, I’m surprised the number of free market supporters isn’t even lower.

The news gets worse when voters are asked about their confidence in our national leaders’ ability to handle current economic problems. Republicans as well as Democrats seem equally unsure. Rasmussen writes this:

In a finding rare to Rasmussen Reports’ recent surveys on the economy, there is virtually no partisan divide when voters are asked about their confidence in policymakers. Only 27% of Republicans are somewhat confident in U.S. policymakers, as are just 30% of Democrats. Twenty-one percent (21%) of unaffiliateds agree.

Voters are also pretty cynical when it comes to the economic rescue plan recently passed by Congress:

Adding to this perception is the further finding that 48% of voters think Congress’ passage of a $700-billion economic rescue plan last month was bad for the country. Just 25% think the plan, first proposed by the Bush administration, was good for the country, and 26% are undecided.

Read the full Rasmussen report here.

While the U.S. economy’s declining, national polling is a growth industry. Karl Rove noted on last week’s Fox News Sunday that the number of national polls released in October 2008 compared to the same month in 2004 grew by 300 percent (55 national polls were release October 1-23, 2004, compared to 177 during the same period this year).

Examinations into the accuracy of these surveys have already started. This paper paper by professors Leonard Adelman and Mark Schilling argues that broadcast and cable network polling (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox) all tilt more pro-Obama in their results than Gallup and Rasmussen. Adelman and Shilling write this:

We compared polls produced by major television networks with those produced by Gallup and Rasmussen. We found that, taken as a whole, polls produced by the networks were significantly to the left of those produced by Gallup and Rasmussen.

We used the available data to provide a tentative ordering of the major television networks’ polls from right to left. Our order (right to left) was: FOX, CNN, NBC (which partners with the Wall Street Journal), ABC (which partners with the Washington Post), CBS (which partners with the New York Times). These results appear to comport well with the commonly held informal perceptions of the political leanings of these agencies.

It’s important to note the authors make no claims about which polls are more accurate. They simply observe--based on surveys from different outlets that come out the same day--the networks consistently show a more pro-Obama bias (with FOX showing the least Obama tilt and CBS showing the most) compared to Gallup and Rasmussen.

No one from the networks has responded yet. I assume they will wait until after the election. If the networks were right, they’ll claim vindication. If wrong? You probably won’t hear much about it.

HT: Andrew Gelman

I found this article by Shailagh Murray in the Sunday Washington Post curious. It argues the number of people who say they want the same party to control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue has reached “new highs.” Murray writes:

The percentage of Americans saying they preferred that the same party control the White House and Congress has reached new highs in the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. On Thursday and Friday, the poll showed that 50 percent of likely voters wanted one party to control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and that 30 percent preferred split-party rule.

The article suggests that one of McCain’s closing arguments--unified Democratic control is dangerous--receives minimal support from likely voters. But looking at the overall numbers masks the preferences of McCain’s real audience in the final week of the campaign--independents.

No surprise, the bulk of support for unified control comes from self-identified Democrats. Republicans also prefer unified control. But as ABC News polling director Gary Langer points out independents (McCain’s real target group) lean toward divided government.

On the question of whether divided or single-party control is better in general, 50 percent overall side with single-party control--Democrats most [63 percent], independents least [34 percent]. Thirty percent favor divided government--independents and Republicans most. And 14 percent have no preference either way.

You can read Langer’s analysis here.

Early voting has been on the rise. Gallup released a new report today that notes 11% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, with another 19% saying they still plan to vote before Election Day. If 30% vote early it will represent a 7-point increase over the 22% who cast early ballots in 2004.

Early voting as of late October 2008 nearly matches what it was at the same time in 2004. But Gallup also notes a higher percentage of registered voters expressing intent to vote early compared to 2004. Here’s Gallup’s finding:

The pace of early voting so far appears to be roughly on par with 2004. At about this time before that year's election -- Oct. 22-24 -- 9% of registered voters said they had already voted. However, in that 2004 poll, only an additional 13% said they intended to vote early, lower than the 19% who say so in the current Oct. 20-22 average. Thus, early voting this year may end up being higher than it was in 2004. (In Gallup's final poll before the election that year, conducted Oct. 29-31, 17% said they had voted early, and another 4% claimed they were still going to vote before Election Day.) As noted above, projections from this year's data are that as many as 30% of voters could end up voting early.

Gallup also notes that nearly the same proportion of McCain and Obama supporters have cast early ballots. But because Obama leads in the polls, he also has the edge in early voting results:

Obama has been ahead in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted while these data were being gathered. Thus, while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample.

This, of course, is not great news for John McCain because even if he surges in the last 10 days, the lead Obama currently enjoys would be locked in among the early voters.

Read the full Gallup report here.