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Wednesday, August 19, 2009
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| The Great Migration |
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The independents who provided the lift for the Democrats' soaring political fortunes in 2006 and 2008 are abandoning the Democratic party. The new Pew poll has Obama's job approval rating at 51 percent, and finds that "Independents, who approved of Obama’s job performance by nearly two-to-one in June (56 percent to 29 percent) are now about evenly divided: 45 percent approve while 43 percent disapprove." Nationally, the Republicans have not benefited fully from the independent out-migration. But at the state level, the shift is helping the GOP's fortunes. Republicans lead in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, and Tom Bevan notes at the RCP blog that Bill McCollum, a Republican candidate to replace Gov. Charlie Crist in 2010, leads Democrat Alex Sink by 4 points, "due almost exclusively to a big swing among Independents." Why the change? It must have something to do with Obama's governance to date. My guess: the man who campaigned as an advocate for a "new" bipartisan politics has proven to be a partisan, liberal Democrat. People still like Obama, they just don't like his policies. Independents still support Obama, but they are headed in a direction that no doubt worries the White House. Maybe Obama will reassert his connection with these voters; maybe not. But their exodus serves as a reminder that American politics is determined by people who do not identify with a concrete set of partisan and ideological commitments. ![]()
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Wednesday, November 19, 2008
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| Faith in Free Markets |
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Rasmussen released results of a new national poll yesterday showing Americans put more faith in the concept of free market capitalism than they do in our national leaders’ ability to apply it. According to the poll:
The same survey found that just 22 percent disagree with that sentiment, while 33 percent are undecided. As a pollster I know it’s sometimes hard to separate the “message” from the “messenger.” So in this case, given President Bush’s low approval ratings and the economic meltdown over the past two months, I’m surprised the number of free market supporters isn’t even lower. The news gets worse when voters are asked about their confidence in our national leaders’ ability to handle current economic problems. Republicans as well as Democrats seem equally unsure. Rasmussen writes this:
Voters are also pretty cynical when it comes to the economic rescue plan recently passed by Congress:
Read the full Rasmussen report here.
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Friday, October 31, 2008
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| Bias in Network Polling? |
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While the U.S. economy’s declining, national polling is a growth industry. Karl Rove noted on last week’s Fox News Sunday that the number of national polls released in October 2008 compared to the same month in 2004 grew by 300 percent (55 national polls were release October 1-23, 2004, compared to 177 during the same period this year). Examinations into the accuracy of these surveys have already started. This paper paper by professors Leonard Adelman and Mark Schilling argues that broadcast and cable network polling (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox) all tilt more pro-Obama in their results than Gallup and Rasmussen. Adelman and Shilling write this:
It’s important to note the authors make no claims about which polls are more accurate. They simply observe--based on surveys from different outlets that come out the same day--the networks consistently show a more pro-Obama bias (with FOX showing the least Obama tilt and CBS showing the most) compared to Gallup and Rasmussen. No one from the networks has responded yet. I assume they will wait until after the election. If the networks were right, they’ll claim vindication. If wrong? You probably won’t hear much about it. HT: Andrew Gelman
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Monday, October 27, 2008
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| Is the Divided Government Argument Effective? |
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I found this article by Shailagh Murray in the Sunday Washington Post curious. It argues the number of people who say they want the same party to control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue has reached “new highs.” Murray writes:
The article suggests that one of McCain’s closing arguments--unified Democratic control is dangerous--receives minimal support from likely voters. But looking at the overall numbers masks the preferences of McCain’s real audience in the final week of the campaign--independents. No surprise, the bulk of support for unified control comes from self-identified Democrats. Republicans also prefer unified control. But as ABC News polling director Gary Langer points out independents (McCain’s real target group) lean toward divided government.
You can read Langer’s analysis here.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
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| Gallup: 1 Out of 3 Could Vote Before Election Day |
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Early voting has been on the rise. Gallup released a new report today that notes 11% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, with another 19% saying they still plan to vote before Election Day. If 30% vote early it will represent a 7-point increase over the 22% who cast early ballots in 2004. Early voting as of late October 2008 nearly matches what it was at the same time in 2004. But Gallup also notes a higher percentage of registered voters expressing intent to vote early compared to 2004. Here’s Gallup’s finding:
Gallup also notes that nearly the same proportion of McCain and Obama supporters have cast early ballots. But because Obama leads in the polls, he also has the edge in early voting results:
This, of course, is not great news for John McCain because even if he surges in the last 10 days, the lead Obama currently enjoys would be locked in among the early voters. Read the full Gallup report here. ![]()
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