Consensus Cut in Half

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5:53 PM, May 14, 2009 • By MICHAEL GOLDFARB

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I know we're supposed to have great confidence in the effects of global warming as conveyed to us by our betters in the scientific community, but it appears that the consensus view of how much sea levels would rise were Antarctica's western ice sheet to melt has just been cut in half:

A new analysis halves longstanding projections of how much sea levels could rise if Antarctica's massive western ice sheets fully disintegrated as a result of global warming.

The flow of ice into the sea would probably raise sea levels about 10 feet rather than 20 feet, according to the analysis, published in the May 15 issue of the journal Science.

Maybe it's possible that the "scientific consensus" of how quickly surface temperatures will rise is also wrong? Or can science now accurately predict climate in 100 years even as meteorologists struggle to predict the weather in 100 hours?

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