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Poll of Polls and Other Polls

3:59 PM, Aug 26, 2009 • By MICHAEL GOLDFARB
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Obama's public approval has, according to Pollster.com's Poll of Polls, for the first time slipped across that magical 50 percent line (see the graph below). It's not a good sign for the president, and it's not a good sign for Democrats looking at midterm elections last year. Presumably Dem numbers will rebound this fall from where they are now (Rasmussen has Republicans up 5 in the generic ballot and as noted below, Obamacare is at a pathetic 25 percent approval according to POS), but if they don't, this PPP poll out of Arkansas could be the shape of things to come:

The wind is blowing against Democrats nationally right now and Public Policy Polling's newest survey finds that's having a pretty significant impact on Blanche Lincoln's prospects for reelection in Arkansas. Lincoln's approval rating is now just 36%, with 44% of voters in the state disapproving of the job she's doing.

When PPP surveyed the state in March it was a positive 45/40 spread for the second term Senator. 62% of Democrats, 27% of independents, and 14% of Republicans give her good marks. The Republicans eyeing a run against her are not very well known. Gilbert Baker is viewed favorably by 7% of voters in the state, Curtis Coleman by 6%, and Tom Cotton by just 4%.

That doesn't stop them from polling within the margin of error against Lincoln though. Baker leads her 42-40, Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Cotton trails the incumbent 40-39. "You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

The boss offered some warm words for Republican hopeful Tom Cotton on the Bill Bennett show last night, prompting this exchange with Arkansas blogger Jason Tolbert.