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Obama's public approval has, according to Pollster.com's Poll of Polls, for the first time slipped across that magical 50 percent line (see the graph below). It's not a good sign for the president, and it's not a good sign for Democrats looking at midterm elections last year. Presumably Dem numbers will rebound this fall from where they are now (Rasmussen has Republicans up 5 in the generic ballot and as noted below, Obamacare is at a pathetic 25 percent approval according to POS), but if they don't, this PPP poll out of Arkansas could be the shape of things to come:
The wind is blowing against Democrats nationally right now and Public Policy Polling's newest survey finds that's having a pretty significant impact on Blanche Lincoln's prospects for reelection in Arkansas. Lincoln's approval rating is now just 36%, with 44% of voters in the state disapproving of the job she's doing.
When PPP surveyed the state in March it was a positive 45/40 spread for the second term Senator. 62% of Democrats, 27% of independents, and 14% of Republicans give her good marks. The Republicans eyeing a run against her are not very well known. Gilbert Baker is viewed favorably by 7% of voters in the state, Curtis Coleman by 6%, and Tom Cotton by just 4%.
That doesn't stop them from polling within the margin of error against Lincoln though. Baker leads her 42-40, Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Cotton trails the incumbent 40-39. "You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.