Super-wonk Keith Hennessy has released a new outlook for health care reform. Read it!
Here's a sample:
It is highly likely the legislative process will continue at least into January.
I am still projecting a 60% chance that a comprehensive bill becomes law this year, but I have shifted some of that 60% from the regular order path to the reconciliation path. By itself I'd never expect the Senate to shift to a reconciliation path after failing to get 60 - Senate-only logic says heck no, and the strain on Reid's caucus would be too great. But if Democratic leaders are forced to shift away from regular order on a comprehensive bill, I would guess that Speaker Pelosi would push hard for the Senate to use reconciliation to produce a bill more compatible with the House-passed bill rather than dialing back expectations. This puts me at 40% regular order success, 20% reconciliation success, 20% fall back to a narrower bill, and a 20% chance the whole thing implodes. It's the slow pace and the two intervening recesses that give me hope.
More where that came from here.