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Hennessey's Health Care Reform Projections

9:13 AM, Dec 17, 2009 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI
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Superwonk Keith Hennessey has updated his health care reform projections. "I am lowering from 50 percent to 35 percent my prediction for the success of comprehensive health care reform," he writes. "I now think the most likely outcome is a much more limited bill becomes law."

That probably won't happen until 2010, however. A CBO score is expected today, but Reid still has a lot to accomplish before filing for cloture on Saturday to get to a final vote before Christmas. Moreover, it's unlikely Reid will proceed to a cloture vote if he isn't absolutely sure he has all 60 votes necessary. Which he doesn't have, at the moment.

And remember: Even if Reid gets his 60 votes for cloture and 51 votes for passage (a few liberals and a few moderate Democrats will vote for cloture but not for the final bill), health care reform still has to go to conference, where the House left-wingers will be much more vocal. The debate over health care reform is far from over.