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Can Stupak Kill Obamacare in the House?

7:03 AM, Dec 20, 2009 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
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Are there enough votes in the House to pass a health care bill very close to the one the Senate is preparing to pass? Bart Stupak says the Senate bill's abortion language is "unacceptable" and has pledged to lead a group of pro-life Democrats to vote against final passage if the issue isn't resolved. How many votes can Stupak bring with him?

In November, House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said that the Stupak amendment got them "10 votes" for the bill.

"Without that language, we were around 212, 214," Clyburn said in November (if that's true, the Stupak amendment actually only got 6 or 8 votes for the bill). The House bill originally passed 220 to 215.

Republican Joseph Cao will certainly vote against a bill without the Stupak language. And there are 11 Democrats who voted for the House bill in November who are most likely to vote against final passage because of abortion--they wrote a letter to Pelosi all the way back in June promising that they "cannot support any health care reform proposal unless it explicitly excludes abortion from the scope of any government-defined or subsidized health insurance plan"

Bart Stupak
Kathy Dahlkemper
Brad Ellsworth
Daniel Lipinski
Steve Driehaus
Paul Kanjorski
Marcy Kaptur
Dale Kildee
Solomon Ortiz
John Murtha
James Oberstar

Courtesy of Phil Klein, here are the other pro-Stupak pro-House bill votes from November (whom I expect to be fine with the Senate's language, though there could be a couple who aren't):

Jim Langevin
Marion Berry
Joe Baca
Sanford Bishop
Dennis Cardoza
Chris Carney
Jim Cooper
Jim Costa
Jerry Costello
Henry Cuellar
Joe Donnelly
Mike Doyle
Bob Etheridge
Baron Hill
Stephen Lynch
Michael Michaud
Alan Mollohan
Richard Neal
David Obey
Tom Perriello
Earl Pomeroy
Nick Rahall
Silvestre Reyes
Ciro Rodriguez
Tim Ryan
John Salazar
Vic Synder
Zack Space
John Spratt
Charles Wilson

And here are the 39 Democrats who voted No on the House bill in November (I've bolded the names of 11 members who are unlikely to vote for final passage over abortion, which is by no means the only reason to vote against the Senate bill monstrosity).

1. Rep. John Adler (NJ)

2. Rep. Jason Altmire (PA)

3. Rep. Brian Baird (WA)

4. Rep. John Barrow (GA)

5. Rep. John Boccieri (OH)

6. Rep. Dan Boren (OK)

7. Rep. Rick Boucher (VA)

8. Rep. Allen Boyd (FL)

9. Rep. Bobby Bright (AL)

10. Rep. Ben Chandler (KT)

11. Rep. Travis Childers (MS)

12. Rep. Artur Davis (AL)

13. Rep. Lincoln Davis (TN)

14. Rep. Chet Edwards (TX)

15. Rep. Bart Gordon (TN)

16. Rep. Parker Griffith (AL)

17. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD)

18. Rep. Tim Holden (PA)

19. Rep. Larry Kissell (NC)

20. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL)

21. Rep. Frank Kratovil (MD)

22. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)

23. Rep. Jim Marshall (GA)

24. Rep. Betsy Markey (CO)

25. Rep. Eric Massa (NY)

26. Rep. Jim Matheson(UT)

27. Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC)

28. Rep. Michael McMahon (NY)

29. Rep. Charlie Melancon (LA)

30. Rep. Walt Minnick (ID)

31. Rep. Scott Murphy (NY)

32. Rep. Glenn Nye (VA)

33. Rep. Collin Peterson (MN)

34. Rep. Mike Ross (AR)

35. Rep. Heath Shuler (NC)

36. Rep. Ike Skelton (MO)

37. Rep. John Tanner (TN)

38. Rep. Gene Taylor (MS)

39. Rep. Harry Teague (NM)

So bottom line: you subtract 10 from 220, you need to add 8 from this list.

Of course, this doesn't even take into account the 60 House liberals (list after the jump) who pledged to vote against any bill lacking a public option. How many of them have the courage of their convictions?

Lynn Woolsey
Raul Grijalva
Carolyn Kilpatrick
Jerry Nadler
Phil Hare
Lucille Roybal-Allard
Keith Ellison
Earl Blumenauer
Mel Watts
Donna Edwards
John Olver
Dennis Kucinich
Laura Richardson
Maxine Waters
John Conyers
Judy Chu
Maurice Hinchey
Hank Johnson
Diane Watson
Jackie Speier
Bill Pascrell
Lloyd Doggett
Marcy Kaptur
Mazie Hirono
Bob Filner
Linda Sanchez
Marcia Fudge
Barbara Lee
Andre Carson
Sheila Jackson Lee
Michael Honda
Jim McDermott
William Lacy Clay
Jim McGovern
Yvette Clarke
Eric Massa
Chellie Pingree
Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Elijah Cummings
Bennie Thompson
Gwen Moore
Donald Payne
Fortney "Pete" Stark
Ed Towns
Corrine Brown
Alcee Hastings
Nydia Valezquez
Luis Gutierrez
Grace Napolitano
Albio Sires
John Tierney
Mike Capuano
Chaka Fattah
Jose Serrano
SamFarr
Bill Delahunt
Eddie Bernice Johnson
Robert Wexler
Emanuel Cleaver
Gregorio Sablan