January 5, 2009 -
January 12, 2009 • Vol. 14, No. 16
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Friday, November 07, 2008
Undecided House Races

MD-1:
Democrat Frank Kratovil leads Republican Andy Harris by 2,003 votes in this district that includes all of Maryland's Eastern Shore and parts of three counties west of the bay. Harris's campaign thinks there are about 10,000 outstanding provisional and absentee ballots. In order to win, the remaining ballots need to go 3-2 for Harris. Earlier today, the Associated Press and CNN called the race for Kratovil. Harris hasn't conceded, and Kratovil cautioned against premature celebration.

CA-4:
Tom McClintock netted another 118 votes over Democrat Charlie Brown in their nail-biting race to represent California's Fourth District, stretching from the Sacramento suburbs to Lake Tahoe and up to the Oregon border. McClintock now leads by 827 votes, but up to 40,000 ballots absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted. County elections offices have until December 2 to finish their canvassing, so the winner likely won't be known until then.

AK-AL:
Republican incumbent Don Young maintains an eight percentage point lead over his Democratic opponent, Ethan Berkowitz. However, nearly 63,000 absentee and early ballots remain uncounted as of Thursday night. About 18,000 additional questioned ballots also require review. Alaska's deadline for finishing the vote count is November 19, with final certification on November 25.

WA-8:
Republican incumbent Dave Reichert leads Democratic challenger Darcy Burner in his suburban Seattle district by 6,403 votes with 77 percent of precincts reporting.

OH-15:
With thousands of provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots still uncounted, Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 149 votes. The two are each hoping to replace retiring Republican Deborah Pryce, whom Kilroy nearly defeated in 2006.

VA-5:
Republican incumbent Virgil Goode trails Tom Perriello in southern Virginia's Fifth District by 745 votes. Nearly all votes have been counted, leading Perriello to declare victory. Goode hasn't conceded, and is unlikely to concede until vote certification on November 24. Barring vote-counting errors, Rep. Goode will probably need to rely on absentee ballots from overseas that were postmarked by the date of the election in order to keep his seat.

LA-4:
In northwest Louisiana, Republican physician John Fleming and Democratic district attorney Paul Carmouche won their respective primaries on Tuesday. On December 6, they will face off to replace retiring Republican representative Jim McCrery. Despite this district's conservative bent, it is likely to be competitive given Carmouche's popularity.




Wednesday, November 05, 2008
House Update

Four of the eight Republican-held House seats that were undecided late last night now have a clear winner:

Republicans will hold on to retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce's seat in OH-15, with Republican Steve Stivers leading Democrat Mary Kilroy by five percent and only one precinct outstanding.

Michigan state senator Mark Schauer defeated Republican Congressman Tim Walberg in Michigan's Seventh District, 49 to 46 percent.

Alaska's embattled Rep. Don Young (R) holds a healthy eight percent lead against Ethan Berkowitz (D) with only three precincts left to report.

Western Idaho Rep. Bill Sali (R) narrowly lost to businessman Walt Minnick (D) in a conservative district.

One seat is a likely Democratic pick-up:

In Maryland's Eastern Shore-based First District, Andy Harris (R) trails Frank Kratovil (D) by about 1,000 votes with all precincts reporting. Harris defeated GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the Republican primary.

Three seats are still toss-ups:

In Northeast California's Fourth District, conservative state senator Tom McClintock leads Democrat Charles Brown by 400 votes, with all precincts reporting. Provisional and late absentee ballots have not been counted.

In VA-5, Rep. Virgil Goode (R) and Tom Perriello (D) are within one or two hundred votes, depending on the source. There will almost certainly be a recount. Maybe this explains why this race became unexpectedly close.

With only 41 percent reporting, GOP Rep. Dave Reichert is leading Democrat Darcy Burner (D) by a slim margin in WA-8.

This will give the Democrats a net gain of between 20 and 23 seats in the House, with a partisan breakdown of between 256/179 and 259/176 in the next Congress.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Vets for Freedom Against Murtha

Vets for Freedom will run this ad throughout the week in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district, where Congressman Murtha is facing a serious challenge from Bill Russell:

From the VFF press release:

"Representative Murtha has said time and again that our Marines ‘killed innocent civilians in cold blood'[Murtha, May 17th news conference, Murtha May 19th, Reuters], and it is appalling. Seven of the eight Marines involved have been exonerated, but Rep. Murtha has not issued an apology. It's time Representative Murtha accept responsibility for his reckless statements and actions," said Pete Hegseth, Chairman of VFF.

VFF Vice Chairman David Bellavia added, "In November 2005, Representative Murtha said in a television interview, 'The soldiers can't speak for themselves.' We are here to tell Rep. Murtha that, yes, we can, and we will speak out in defense of the truth. Vets for Freedom's 40,000 members will not rest until Americans know that our troops are succeeding and doing so with honor and integrity."