May 19, 2008 • Vol. 13, No. 34
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Le Bourget
The 47th running of the biennial Paris Air Show closed as it always does. Huge crowds on the public days of the last weekend, an air display of fighter and commercial aircraft, and dozens of vendors hawking baseball caps, t-shirts, jackets, refrigerator magnets, and plush toys with the air show’s logo plastered on them.
This year’s air show motif was a sign of how the industry views itself in the present day. Instead of going for some ultra-modern looking, space age logo that looks like the trademark of some hi-tech corporate behemoth, the show used a set of simple drawings that looked like cartoon aeroplanes and rocketships from a pre-schooler’s coloring book.
It is appropriate because in the aftermath of up and down fuel costs, the ripple effects on the commercial airline industry following 9/11, and the troubles at Europe’s Airbus the overall attitude of the industry is almost that of childlike optimism. “I have never seen the aerospace industry in general so upbeat,” said one executive from France’s Dassault Aviation. “It is as if people believe all of these troubles are now behind us.”
Many of the difficulties that the last few years have brought to aerospace firms worldwide may now be finished, but there are a number of potential pitfalls ahead.
 Saab J39 Gripen at Le Bourget 2003 taxiing before takeoff. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is one of the most ambitious programs of its kind and involves numerous foreign partners. If it proceeds according to schedule and without overshooting its cost numbers too far it will be the most successful program in the history of modern military aviation. However, if delivery dates slip to the right or costs rise too high there could be defections.
And there are plenty of firms out there willing to step in to provide a cheaper and more readily available solution. Already Sweden’s Saab Aerospace has offered their JAS-39 Gripen fighter to Norway and Denmark to try and woo them away from the JSF. The Royal Australian Air Force opted to buy a batch of Boeing F/A-18Fs instead of waiting for its JSF’s to be delivered. The RAAF are still in the JSF program, but any further delays could see them decide to go with more F/A-18s instead.
In Europe much depends on the mammoth A380 double-decker super jumbo airliner. That program is behind schedule because of production delays and most of the companies (i.e. DHL, UPS) that had originally planned to buy a cargo version of the aircraft have cancelled their orders in favor of other options. Any hiccups here and Europe’s aerospace industry could be significantly damaged by forced layoffs and drops in share prices.
The defense business in the west has also become somewhat precarious due to its reliance on so many international alliances and interlocking companies. One of the major partners on JSF is the UK’s BAE Systems, which--it was announced today--will now be investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice in relation to continuing stories about kickbacks and other payoffs to former Saudi ambassador to the United States Prince Bandar bin-Sultan and other officials in Riyahd.
Continue reading "Last Dispatch From Paris" »
 At the Musee de l’Air et de l'Espace.
A Spitfire from the 340 Squadron of the Free French Air Force. The French really know how to put together a great museum. And I’m not referring to the Louvre. France’s Musee de l’Air et de l'Espace, that country's equivalent to the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, is tucked away in a corner of Le Bourget airfield and it’s a shame that it goes unnoticed when the Air Show is in full swing. It's a hidden treasure, worthy of the short trip from Paris even when Le Bourget's bi-annual mega-event isn’t going on next door. But eclipsed by the monstrous corporate chalets, exhibition halls, static displays, and the actual flying itself, the museum was virtually empty as I took my time to wander among the displays.
Unlike its Washington, D.C. counterpart, this museum is cluttered with replicas and original aircraft spanning more than a century of aviation history. The faddish “interactive” displays that plague so many modern museums have been avoided, allowing the planes alone to steal the show. Even the obligatory special exhibit on the “female pioneers” of aviation was tasteful insofar as it was small and off to the side.
The museum is organized into several different halls, each with its own theme--aviation’s early history, the French Air Force, space exploration, etc. The best displays by far featured vintage aircraft from the two World Wars. Living in America, it’s easy to forget how important the American P-51 Mustang and RAF Spitfire were to protecting life and property, or how a dog-fight or fleet of long-range bombers could provide a grim sort of entertainment in the skies.
My only complaint is the lack of English on most of the museum signage, but after overcoming a compulsive desire to read and learn about each interesting display, simply admiring the planes was a more than satisfactory experience. Given the choice of watching F-16s and MiG-29s dance artistically overhead or spending time walking the museum’s halls, paying tribute to the planes and innovators that have brought aviation to its present state is worth the sacrifice.
With the traditional Boeing-Airbus foodfight dominating the news coverage of the biennial Paris Air Show, one of the stand-out companies that receives less attention than it deserves is Brazil’s Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A., or Embraer, as it is more commonly known.
Embraer jet and propeller-driven aircraft are in use all over the world, although many people do not realize they are flying on a Brazilian product. As a corporation it is the jewel in Brazil’s industrial crown, employing a workforce of 19,265 people, and enjoying a backlog of firm orders totaling $14.8 billion.
Currently Embraer has the third largest yearly delivery of commercial aircraft (behind Boeing and Airbus) and the fourth largest workforce (behind Boeing, Airbus and Bombardier). One of the largest users of Embraer aircraft is the American carrier JetBlue.
Embraer's headquarters, main production facilities, and engineering/design offices are in São José dos Campos, in the Brazilian state of São Paulo. (Embraer employees from São Paulo state are known as Paulistas. They tend to look down on the Cariocas from Rio de Janeiro--saying that they do not know how to work. Cariocas return the favour by accusing those from São Paulo state of being too “up tight.”) The company also manufactures major components and conducts flight testing at a production plant in Gavião Peixoto, São Paulo state. This facility has some of the most modern tooling available from Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Japan and includes a 16,400 foot runway.
The company has an interesting history. It first started producing commercial planes in the early 1970s. “At the time,” said one Embraer executive, “a lot of people laughed at us or asked what the hell we were thinking about. They would say ‘how can they even think of trying to build aircraft in this third--maybe even fifth-world country’ and predicted we would never last.”
But the Brazilan planemaker did last, surviving near-death in the economic crisis of the 1990s in Brazil, when they went down to about 3,000 employees. Today they are one of the best aerospace companies in the business, and their 190 model commuter airliner is only slightly smaller than--and just as popular as--the Boeing 737.
Even less noticed is the company’s defense division, which at times has kept the Brazilian Air Force’s older model Northrop F-5s up to date and has designed a series of airborne early warning and surveillance platforms. Without Embraer’s product line the Brazilian Air Force would be unable to patrol and keep drug traffickers from slipping across into the Amazonia.
 The Embraer Super Tucano. Most interesting of all, this Brazilian powerhouse may be the key to the U.S. being able to gain the upper hand against the insurgency in Iraq. U.S. fighter aircraft makers produce primarily jets--too fast for the close-in fighting that counterinsurgency demands. Helicopters can get in low and fly slow, but they have limited range and cannot get up to speed to move from one spot on the battlefield to another. Embraer’s answer is the Super Tucano, a street-tough, two-seat propeller-driven fighter that looks like a cross between the World War II P-51 Mustang and the Douglas A-1 Skyraiders that were used as search-and-rescue “Sandies” in Vietnam to extract downed pilots. But unlike these aeroplanes of old the Super Tucano is stuffed full of the most modern displays and avionics. It can drop a precision-guided bomb down an air shaft as easily as one of the jet-propelled fast movers can, and it can datalink to any number of sensor platforms to be guided in to a target. It is Brazilian know-how at its best and most innovative.
Continue reading "America Embraces Embraer" »
 Georgia governor Sonny Perdue gets a look inside the Super Hornet. The U.S. military presence at the Paris Air Show this year is larger than at any other time during the Bush administration. A Navy LT who preferred not to reveal his name spoke with me about this and more while we walked the DoD's static display of U.S. aircraft. An F/A-18 Super Hornet pilot based in Oceana, Virginia, the LT was frequently interrupted by the demands of high-profile visitors curious to see the inside of the aircraft's cockpit. After Georgia governor Sonny Perdue was satisfied, a former Soviet MiG pilot and Moldovan minister of defense now serving as that country's ambassador to NATO carefully examined the F/A-18 Super Hornet's components. I didn't detect a spy-camera, but I did ask his Boeing chaperone if Moldova is in the market for fighter jets. The well-meaning exec chuckled as he motioned to a nearby HARM air-to-ground missile. "They can't even afford one of those," he said, let alone a strike fighter like the Super Hornet.
After the VIPs took off, the pilot explained that he was pulling double duty in France--in addition to the standard DoD role, he also claimed a responsibility to help Boeing, the F/A-18's manufacturer, sell airplanes. But the LT had one more self-assigned, unofficial mission: to elevate the sagging reputation of the United States here in France. And he also offered a stunning defense of the French people, who he claimed are completely misrepresented back in the States. According to him, the French are friendly, speak more English than they used to--which he said is a shame and evidence of the destructive power of our pervasive culture--and have been much better war-time allies than we give them credit for. We say the LT's entitled to his opinion on this matter, but his wife, a WEEKLY STANDARD subscriber he confides, might disagree.
Getting back to the aircraft, the LT--perhaps in his capacity as a flack for the F/A-18--said the manufacturers are responsive to the concerns and demands of the pilots who have to fly their planes. When another Oceana-based squadron experienced an ejection mishap, Boeing was quick to help rectify the potentially-fatal problem. And when the F-14 was about to be decommissioned by the U.S. Navy, Northrop still put out "100 percent effort," making repairs to the bitter end.
The Paris Air Show was graced today with the presence of international superstar John Travolta, who appeared to draw a far larger crowd than the show's other star, the Airbus A380--and he certainly drew a larger crowd of photographers. To be honest, after I took out my binoculars to see what all the fuss was about, I still had no idea who he was and just assumed he drove Formula One cars or some other such thing. Well, now we know who he is, and here's the picture taken by WEEKLY STANDARD deputy editor/paparazzi photographer Richard Starr.
 Thursday Afternoon Fever
The crowds at Le Bourget are overwhelming, as is the traffic inside the show, which is almost entirely comprised of high-end model Mercedes-Benzes. Here you can see the crush in between two rows of corporate chalets just off the main runway.
The French Mirage 2000 is seen here landing after putting on an exciting aerial display.
There are probably upwards of five thousand models on display at the Paris Air Show across the air field's six exhibition halls--the event is a model-builders dream.
Finally, our daily dose of the babes of Le Bourget. This installment comes straight from the Far East--on a jet airplane we presume.
Truth is stranger than fiction--or so the saying goes. Nothing illustrates this more than the intersection of arms salesmen, government spokesmen, press reporting and a series of mysterious events leading up to the Paris Air Show at Le Bourget.
In the first week of March, Ivan Safranov, a retired Russian colonel and correspondent for the last decade at the Moscow newspaper Kommersant, was found dead outside of his apartment building. Questions raised about several aspects of his death still remain unanswered.
 Putin's next big customer? Safranov lived on the third floor of his building, but he had for some reason fallen from the fifth floor. He was fully clothed and wearing an overcoat, as if he had just returned from a trip to the market. A bag of mandarins was found scattered on the ground near his body. When he landed on the ground he had hit headfirst, which one tends not to do unless they are already unconscious at the time of their fall. Needless to say, if he was unconscious he could not have jumped from the window of the fifth floor without having been “assisted” in the process.
Not surprisingly, the Russian prosecutors assigned to the case wanted to rule his death a suicide, despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
Safranov had made a name for himself by investigating stories related to arms sales and the defense industrial complex in Russia. In the past he had been visited by officers from the Federal Security Service (FSB) demanding to know how he had come to have possession of the information contained in his articles.
Just prior to his death he had been working on a story about how Russia intended to sell advanced military aircraft and other weapon systems to Iran. In order to avoid any unpleasantness, the plan was to ship these aircraft through a third country--either Belarus or Syria--so that Russia’s arms export agency monopoly, Rosoboronexport (ROE), could claim plausible deniability for the sale.
Fast forward to this week’s show at Le Bourget. Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reported on Tuesday that ROE were preparing to deliver five Mikoyan MiG-31E fighter aircraft to Syria, as well as an undetermined number of MiG-29M/M2 fighters, in a deal worth more than $1 billion. The MiG-29M/M2 aircraft would be new production models, but the MiG-31Es would be used Russian air force aircraft refurbished and upgraded at the Sokol plant in Nizhni-Novgorod, Russia.
Continue reading "A Russian Murder Mystery" »
The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter is by all accounts an awesome aircraft. Stealthy, speedy, and offered in three variants to satisfy the varied requirements of the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, it represents the future of fixed-wing aircraft for the U.S. military. As the Lockheed spokespersons emphasized at today's briefing on the plane, the F-35 will also be a major force in the international market. Understandably, we looked forward to learning some new information at today's "special event." And though my hopes for a juicy announcement went unfulfilled, Lockheed did manage to provide a surprising and alternative form of entertainment--as the saying goes, no plan survives initial contact with the enemy, or in this case, the public affairs staff.
 The best art we've seen in Paris. As we waited for the event to begin, the industry reps put on a short documentary chronicling the JSF's maiden flight. The dramatic music and camera-work was intended to tug at the heart strings--indeed, seeing this superb fighter airborne and performing basic maneuvers triggered thoughts of how not too long from now we might be watching the JSF perform at Le Bourget. A Lockheed executive said the video gave him chills. But this emotional roller coaster was far from over.
The JSF is stunning, and apparently so much so that Lockheed commissioned nine paintings for each of the nine countries participating in the project. The paintings each depict "the role of the F-35 Lightning II JSF for that sovereign nation." When a Lockheed executive issued the command for "each artist to stand by their painting in preparation for a simultaneous unveiling," it didn't quite achieve the desired effect. Another blunder was the decision to have each artist shuffle out the door with his painting before proceeding with Air Force Brigadier General Charles Davis' remarks--the lengthy delay was awkward, but Davis took it in stride.
The amusing antics over-with, General Davis presented a boiler-plate power point brief, basically informing us that the program is on track after a very successful year. One of the JSF's more impressive components that we heard about is the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, which according to General Davis is "performing flawlessly." (Pratt & Whitney is sponsoring our coverage of the Paris Air Show.) But during the Q&A session, the press was focused on a single issue: the rising cost of the JSF program. General Davis explained that an annual 3-4 percent increase in the price of metals was largely responsible for the increase, but cynics were left wondering how component price volatility wasn't budgeted from the get-go, and others were dubious that the "affordability team" had any chance at keeping the situation under control. We were just happy this was the only art show we'd have to see in Paris.
Bruce Lemkin, the deputy undersecretary of the Air Force for International Affairs, has no counterpart in the Army or Navy, but Lemkin says "[his] job is not selling airplanes, [his] job is building relationships between the U.S. Air Force and other air forces around the world." His goal is to build "interoperability," which at its most basic level means getting U.S. and allied air forces "training together, operating together, flying together, so if we have to, we can fight together." But...his job is kind of about selling airplanes: "When I talk to a foreign air chief about [interoperability], their eyes open up--gee, this guy can help me--cause it's not just about buying the equipment, but the airplane is important, because flying the same plane that the U.S. Air Force flies becomes the centerpiece of that relationship."
And that is certainly true in the case of fighters like the F-16, which is flown by 24 allied air forces, but the newest jet in the U.S. inventory, the F-22, has the potential to do more than help the United States build relationships. The F-22 has unmatched capabilities as an air-to-air fighter, and if the United States were to export that aircraft--speculation about a sale has centered on two of the countries closest allies, Japan and Israel--it would represent a huge leap forward in capability for the recipient. But Lemkin was quick to point out that "by U.S. law, we cannot export the F-22." Is the Air Force working to change that law so as to allow export to Japan? It's a move favored by many, as it would effectively drive down program costs by increasing the number of units produced, as well as giving Japan a more credible deterrent vis-a-vis North Korea and China, but Lemkin said that "[his] personal view, and it's our Air Force view, we want to see Japan flying the Joint Strike Fighter--it's a capability that will be very appropriate to them."
 Lemkin says the F-35 has technologies that are 15 years beyond what's available in F-22. But the Japanese have an urgent need for a next-generation fighter, and F-22 is available now, while the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is still in development. But Lemkin says there would be "huge costs" associated with developing an exportable version of F-22, and that doing so would take considerable time--"by the time they got that," Lemkin said, "they could have an F-35." Lemkin said the Air Force might be able to provide the Japanese with JSF as early as 2013. According to Lemkin, JSF is "the right choice for Israel, it's the right choice for Japan." Still, one industry source familiar with the program told me today that he believed Israel would likely get access to F-22 in the not too distant future. And there seems to be considerable support on the Hill and in the White House--and, of course, at lead contractor Lockheed Martin--for changing the export laws governing sales of the F-22 in order to allow both Japan and Israel access to the world's most advanced operational fighter.
Moving on to other matters...Lemkin got himself in a bit of hot water in March when, on a trip to India to promote U.S. aircraft in a major competition to supply that country's air force with a new fleet of fighters, he told reporters that "I am not here to sell airplanes, but I can tell you that the F-16 is the best there is as we attempt interoperability between our air forces in the global fight against terror." There are two U.S. airplanes competing for that contract: the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and the Lockheed Martin F-16. The American government is not supposed to favor one aircraft, or company, over another in promoting the interests of U.S. business. Lemkin's explanation for the alleged misconduct: "that was mischaracterized...[I said] the F-18 is a wonderful fighter...but I'm the deputy undersecretary of the U.S. Air Force, I want the Indian air force to fly the F-16 because we [the U.S. Air Force] don't fly the F-18. I want them to fly the same airplane we fly--to be the centerpiece of an air force to air force relationship."
Asked whether he thought there was a real chance the Indians might purchase the F-16, Lemkin was diplomatic, insisting that that was a decision for the Indians, but he did say that he thought "the message of the relationship between the air forces is very powerful." And American industry should hope that's true--as WWS contributor Reuben Johnson wrote here yesterday, that contract is the "Powerball lotto jackpot of defense sales."
To call Bell-Boeing's tilt-rotor V-22 Osprey a controversial military acquisition would be an enormous understatement. Yet the press corps, long dubious of the aircraft's capabilities and survivability, seemed to hold its collective tongue during yesterday's briefing at the Boeing chalet--there were no questions asked about the aircraft's reliability, instead the focus was on the Osprey's upcoming deployment to Iraq. In September, the Marine Corps's VMM-263 squadron will deploy with ten Ospreys to Al-Asad Air Base in Anbar province.
 The V-22 did not appear at Le Bourget, an absence that
was explained by the need for all available aircraft and
crews to focus on training for potential deployment. Whether or not the program has the full support of defense analysts and U.S. Marines has become a non-issue in the face of the Marine Corps's unwavering commitment to keep the program moving forward. Though this obstinacy may have deterred the press from asking hard-hitting questions, our colleagues have not lost their penchant for sarcasm and cynicism--one lamented the "obligatory" coverage of the Osprey only hours before squeezing into Boeing's packed media room with 60 or so fellow journalists.
The Marine Corps's V-22 program director, Colonel Matthew Mulhern, must have been equally surprised by the softballs being lobbed at him. The press asked nothing about the reported instability the Osprey experiences when it tilts its rotors. There was no reference to a potentially fatal fluid mechanics defect known as Vortex Ring State, which some experts maintain still poses a serious threat to the Osprey, and there was no follow-up when the colonel said they're "still looking at ideas" for providing defensive fire in all directions--a huge issue for a platform expected to be in the thick of it just three months from now and with nothing more than a single M240 machine gun mounted on the tail ramp for self-defense.
On the plus side, Colonel Mulhern was frank about his expectations for the Osprey on deployment. His honesty and confidence were reassuring. He warned of the danger of taking enemy fire, and the high probability the Marines "are gonna lose some" of the birds as a result. He cited the unavoidable effects of incessant sand wearing on engines and rotors, which is his primary fear for the success of the deployment. He didn't obscure the fact that only as a result of this maiden combat deployment will the true tactical capabilities of the "multi-mission" Osprey become clear. And he said that even as an F/A-18 pilot who knows the meaning of speed, the Osprey offers an impressive acceleration and the real ability to surprise an enemy that's likely to spot the bird only after it's too late.
Some of my buddies who may actually be flying into combat on the Osprey within the next year will wait and see what happens before passing judgment--though they admit they wouldn't volunteer for the first combat op. This mindset seems reasonable. Nobody really knows how the Osprey will perform and whether it truly demonstrates a new capability deserving of the lives that have already been lost over the course of the program. The colonel's requirement for calling the program a success is the first wounded Marine airlifted faster and further in the back of an Osprey to receive vital medical treatment saving life or limb. Perhaps the subdued journalists yesterday were similarly holding their breath.
Senator James Inhofe arrived at the Paris Air Show early Monday morning. As "the last active commercial pilot in the United States Senate," Inhofe makes a point of never missing the show, and I had the chance to sit down with him just a few hours after the show kicked off to discuss a wide range of defense issues.
On Joint Strike Fighter: "How could there be anything better than that?"
Inhofe stopped himself as he was about to say that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter would allow the United States to maintain its air superiority, instead saying that "a lot of people don't realize, but during the 1990s--the drawdown during the Clinton administration--we cut back on modernization. In fact, I was so proud of [former Air Force chief of staff] General Jumper, who had the courage to stand up in 1998 and admit that the Su series that the Russians were making were superior to our best strike fighters in some ways...so the F-22 and the Joint Strike Fighter are going to put us back [on top], unquestionably.
On F-22: "I think we need to get the numbers up."
Inhofe said that "we do need to have the F-22 [production numbers] enhanced, as well as the Joint Strike Fighter, as well as the C-17--our lift capabilities are more strained than they have been [at any time] in the history of the United States...[when the C-17 program got first started] we never dreamed we'd have Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and all the lift needs that we have today. So our deficiency isn't only in strike vehicles."
On missile defense: "What the House did in their mark-up was not acceptable at all."
Inhofe was none too pleased with recently proposed legislation in the House that would see deep cuts to the missile defense program, including cuts to funding for the deployment of interceptors in Eastern Europe and Boeing's Airborne Laser program. Inhofe said that he and his Republican colleagues were committed to restoring that funding in conference, and he added that proposed cuts to the Future Combat System would also face stiff resistance in the Senate.
To all these questions, Inhofe said "the only answer is that we have to have the best of everything, artillery, strike vehicles, lift capacity, everything has to be the best if we're going to meet what I consider to be the minimum expectations of the American people."
And how are we going to pay for the best of everything? Inhofe said that American defense spending in the 20th century averaged more than 5.5 percent of GDP, dropped to 2.8 percent during the Clinton administration, and was now "hovering at around 4 percent." But Inhofe says that's not enough--"we need to be really close to where we've been in the 20th century...it's going to have to be at 5-5.5 percent of GDP." As for how we might get back to a number like that, Inhofe said "it won't be long before I'm chairing the Armed Services committee again, and I look forward to rebuilding these programs."
During the Cold War, defense procurement was a fairly straightforward proposition. The Soviet Union would produce a new weapon, and the United States would respond with something bigger and better. The Russians would then respond with some weapon that challenged the American military. And so it went for many years.
When the Berlin Wall came down and the U.S.S.R. disintegrated, the tit-for-tat move and countermove in defense spending came to an end. It was obvious there was never going to be a war in Central Europe--the primary justification and presumed battleground for a good deal of America’s arsenal--and the Russian defense industry was in danger of vanishing altogether.
 The Russian MiG-35 is competing against the U.S. F-16 for
an Indian defense deal estimated at more than $8 billion. At this point Russian and American defense business stopped being a one-on-one game, and the two industries went off in different directions. U.S. defense contractors starting thinking about different places they might need to deploy in the post-cold war world--and what type of a military machine you would need to be victorious in the brave new conflicts they envisioned.
And Russian companies became primarily concerned with what their export customers wanted, with barely a care as to what their own military establishment wanted or needed. The question became what could be sold to India, China, and others in large enough numbers to make up for the practically nonexistent funding being disbursed Ministry of Defense in Moscow.
Despite $70 a barrel oil and all of the other economic windfalls the Russians have lately begun to enjoy, they still are not providing much in the way of funding to their own defense industry. When asked here at Le Bourget how much his firm depends to this day on export sales for income, one Russian defense executive answered “about 90 percent.”
Continue reading "The New Arms Race" »
Since I first saw Israel's massive exhibition complex, I've been intrigued to find out what our New Jersey-sized ally has to offer and why in the world they would need so much space to display it. Unfortunately for the Israelis, my curiosity put me in the minority at Le Bourget. At their "first-ever" super-duper, invite-only press tour, only seven reporters, including myself, turned out to see what the fuss was about.
 Israeli Aerospace Industries contributes to the carnival atmosphere by
hosting events in what appears to be a Gravitron. So, while the vast majority of my colleagues were outside watching the show, I set off on a tour with "Israel's leading defense expert," Dr. Ehud Ganini, that featured the products of some eleven Israeli defense companies. I learned that Bental Industries makes very small UAVs, Star Defense Systems manufactures night vision goggles and flight suits, SGD makes reconnaissance and countermeasure pods for the F-16, and on and on. A handful of companies did exhibit more interesting and innovative products. For example, Aeronautics Defense Systems had on display a model of their unmanned surface warfare vessel, the SeaStar, which can use lethal and non-lethal means (think water cannon) to eliminate threats. Plasan Sasa was happy to announce a deal signed just two weeks ago to supply the Marine Corps with 1,200 armor kits new MRAPs by February 2008--though it's unclear to us why the Marine Corps is buying MRAPs without armor, and the company spokesperson was unwilling to reveal any specifics as to the thickness of the armor or its survivability against threats like explosively formed projectiles (EFP).
The most exciting display of all was also the most incomprehensible. Elbit Systems put on an impressive 3-D video production that included a helicopter, UAV, fixed wing jet and infantry forces collaborating to accomplish a fictitious combat operation. They even hired refined British actors, snubbing one of their own employees who confessed to me that his mild Israeli accent disqualified him. Thanks to catch-phrases like "operational success with ease" and liberal use of the word "synergy," I was utterly lost by the end but happy enough to have rested my legs watching Elbit's show.
One last interesting tidbit I discovered before ditching the happy hour for the press center is that as of July 2005, Israel's exports of military technology exceed her imports--though it is unclear whether this statistic takes into account the considerable military assistance given to Israel by the United States each year. Also unclear is whether any of the fancy Israeli technology on display at Le Bourget will be useful in countering the low-tech threat posed by Hezbollah and Hamas. Still, the Israelis put on a good show, even if attendance was somewhat less than expected.
Yesterday the U.S. Air Force's RQ-1 Predator caught my eye. Unlike the myriad UAVs on display at the air show, the Predator has seen plenty of combat in the war on terror. If robots could win medals, the Predator would have fruit salad. Built by General Atomics, the Predator has a wingspan of 48.7 ft, a maximum speed of 135 mph, a range of 454 miles, and a ceiling of 25,000 feet. The Air Force officially describes its primary mission as "interdiction...and armed reconnaissance against critical, perishable targets." A secondary mission is "reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition." The Predator also has obvious and probably underexploited potential as a tool for securing American borders.
 The Predator RQ-1, armed and dangerous. By no means obsolete, the Predator's success has also the set the stage for the next generation of combat-effective unmanned vehicles, including Boeing's A-160 Hummingbird and Israel Aerospace Industry's new behemoth, the Heron II. But with price tags for new UAVs sky-rocketing as the designs grow in complexity, commanders must now be more cautious in using the aircraft, which are ever less expendable. Still, if new UAVs aren't pushed to the brink, they may not fulfill their implicit mission--to prevent American pilots from being killed or captured. There's been much griping, some of it legitimate, about the current limits of UAV technology, and thus the barrage of new models. The Predator, for example, can't take off without a runway and requires significant manpower both to operate and maintain. Perhaps as a result, the military is showing more and more interest in vertical takeoff UAVs and mini-UAVs. But to most observers, every Predator shot down in the course of supporting our troops and killing our enemies means potentially another American pilot saved from the same fate. Judging by the looks of things here at the show, though, despite the rising popularity of the UAV, we won't have a glut of unemployed pilots on our hands anytime soon.
I also had the chance to speak with two Airmen who work maintaining the Predator. Senior Airman Terrance Mose and Staff Sergeant Angelo Munoz, based out of Nellis AFB in Nevada, are having a fantastic time in a fancy hotel in Paris--the Air Force lives up to its sterling reputation, again. Enlisting out of Mobile, Alabama and Chicago respectively, these Airmen are big fans of the relatively trouble-free Predator. Senior Airman Mose described Predator maintenance as a "piece of cake" compared to his old job as an A-10 crew chief. And Staff Sgt Munoz says the most frequent work done on the aircraft is a simple oil change, though as a comm guy his responsibility is to make sure the Predator responds to whatever commands the control operators give it.
Airman Mose enjoyed his two deployments as part of Operation Enduring Freedom, getting into a routine of "wake-up, work, gym, sleep" that made life easier, while Staff Sergeant Munoz has deployed once as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Both mentioned the girls back home as the thing they missed most, and both were enthusiastic about redeploying. Finally, I asked the most important question--how are they spending their nights in Paris? Answer: go to bars "as long as you can stay up and still make it to work in the morning."
The V-22 Osprey isn't at Le Bourget, but its civilian cousin, the Bell Agusta 609 Tiltrotor is. The BA 609 is being marketed to that executive who already has everything else and just can't stand having to take a helicopter to his private jet, and why not...Here you can see the tiltrotor coming in for a vertical landing.
All anybody at this show talks about is the MiG-29OVT, but there's something to be said for the grace and elegance of the F-16. I've been a huge fan of this plane since I was a kid, and as far as commercial success, nothing else really comes close. The F-16 serves in some 24 air forces around the world and more than 4,000 have been produced in five different countries. It may not put on quite the same acrobatic display as the MiG, but there's no other aircraft at the show that looks as good.
 A U.S. Air Force F-16B (Lockheed) makes a pass over the runway.
The Super Hornet, on the other hand, looks like a real pig on the ground. It's a lot bigger than the F-16, and it has two engines to the F-16's one, but once that thing gets up in the air, it appears highly maneuverable--a real pleasure to watch from the ground.
 The belly of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet (Boeing).
The F-35 II is the future of American military aviation, with plans for a purchase of nearly 2,500 of the stealthy plans in three variations--450 short take-off, vertical land (STOVL) copies for the Marine Corps, 260 of a more durable variant capable of carrier landings for the Navy, and 1,783 of a standard model for the U.S. Air Force. Those numbers might fall, but the Joint Strike Fighter, as it is otherwise known, is certain to play a major role in American air operations once production begins in earnest a few years from now. It's also a beautiful aircraft in its own right. The aircraft will be produced and financed by a coalition of American allies, the flags of which are painted below the cockpit.
 The F-35 Lightning II (Lockheed) sits just across from the Lockheed Martin chalet.
And finally, a scene from right outside the press chalet that had photographers from around the world scrambling their own jets.
 From Russia with love.
Journalists camped out at the press chalet fall for some old fashioned marketing from the East Bloc.
Last September the U.S. Air Force flight tested a B-52 using a 50-50 mix of synthetic jet fuel and conventional JP-8. Of the B-52's eight engines, only two were burning the mix, while the other six ran on conventional JP-8, but the Air Force has been hyping the test as evidence of the potential of alternative fuels.
 Inside the C-17, Secretary Wynne chats with the crew. Today at Le Bourget, Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne and FAA Administrator Marion C. Blakey gave a briefing inside a Mississippi Air National Guard C-17 Globemaster III that's on display here at the show, and which is the next aircraft slated for testing with a synthetic blend. The aircraft was impressive...the briefing, not so much. The Air Force has plenty of reason to search for an alternative to JP-8--as the federal government's largest consumer of petroleum products, for every $10 rise in the cost of a barrel of oil the Air Force sees its own fuel bills rise some $600 million.
Unfortunately, it seems like the Air Force is moving towards alternative fuels for all the wrong reasons, i.e. a heavy on the P.R. pedal goal of reduced carbon emissions. Wynne said that the Air Force is moving "aggressively" to certify its entire fleet by 2010--including the service's most advanced fighter jets--with the aim of reducing volatility in the cost of fuel. And two weeks ago the Air Force awarded a $1.1 million contract to Shell Oil to deliver the blend to several Air Force locations and NASA. The synthetic fuel is created using the Fischer-Trope process, which is an interesting technology, but nothing new.
Wynne also said that the Air Force is working with the Department of Energy "to test the use of biomass with coal as a feedstock to reduce the carbon emissions...to move to a reduced carbon philosophy." Wynne says the Air Force is "committed to being good environmental stewards." And Wynne said that the Air Force will only buy fuel from companies that have "either carbon capture or carbon usage technology," but added that, "of course we're going to continue to use petroleum fuels for decades to come."
In response to a question from Jane's reporter Caitlin Harrington about using coal as a feedstock, the secretary added that the Air Force "would have to partner with some of the more exotic algae or biomass that actually consumes carbon." At this point we couldn't help but feel a little sorry for the secretary, who's been reduced to talking algae instead of air-to-air combat. Also, one wonders if the Air Force isn't closing in on the dangerous precedent of requiring the federal government to offset its carbon emissions. At the end of the day, we'd have much preferred that the secretary spent his afternoon discussing how the U.S. Air Force might play a vital role in counterinsurgency operations in Iraq...but, c'est la vie.
DAY ONE OF Le Bourget is like being at the biggest Macy's store you can imagine on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Only it is around 90 degrees, you are fighting a crowd all day long and running to get from one place to the next--all the while perspiring through your coat and tie. At the end of the day you are loaded down with overstuffed heavy duty plastic bags. Only instead of being full of Polo, Prada, Levis and the Gap you are dragging around the world's biggest pile of aerospace brochures, CDs, calendars, pen sets, lapel badges and magazines.
 The MiG-29OVT The combined sums spent by all the firms at the air show producing promotional materials and distributing them to the press and official delegations is probably larger than the budgets of most small countries, and it gets larger all the time. Whereas the average press kit used to contain color brochures and a CD with images of a company's products, the norm now is to distribute memory sticks and other sophisticated paraphernalia.
A look at the first day's events shows just how much the business of aerospace has shifted into the commercial sector. The air show has always been thought of as a place where people go to watch fighter jets strut their stuff across the sky--a spectacle of military muscle-flexing that brings out the crowds. But the military business does not seem to be where the action is in the present day.
Of the approximately 100 press conferences and other announcements taking place on the first day, roughly 60 per cent of them are related to commercial aviation. The big deals that are announced at Paris are no longer record sales of fighter jets or military helicopters, but contracts for airliners and business jets. The European Airbus consortium alone announced $46.7 billion worth of orders today. Defense contractors are still well-represented and have a major profile, but the real money is in airliners, commercial satellites, and services--what one large company refers to as "global sustainment"--and the sales are nothing like these type of numbers.
The one country that still is pushing its defense business and not much else is Russia. Le Bourget has always been an event where the Russians try to show a large presence--a holdover from the Soviet period where being at the Paris show was always seen as a sign of prestige and importance. By far the biggest crowd pleaser is the Mikoyan MiG-29OVT that performs the most acrobatic display of any fighter ever made. The defense business remains Russia's only real money-maker.
At a press conference on day one, the general designer for Mikoyan was discussing MiG's prospects for a sale on the Indian Air Force's M-MRCA fighter aircraft tender. The Indian sale is for 126 aircraft plus follow-ons, which could be well over 200 fighters at the end of the program, making it the Powerball lotto jackpot of defense sales. No country has purchased this many aircraft at one time for over 30 years.
When asked what the company's chances were in India, the MiG official, Vladimir Barkovsky, said that "we work at MiG and not in a casino, so we cannot talk about the chances for success as if we were gambling." But gambling is exactly what the increased Russian reliance on defense sales to keep their aerospace industry alive is. Defense sales can only sustain them for so long, and without a sizeable piece of the commercial market, Russia will end up a small-time player in the world market. As one Russian colleague told me "Italy used to have a fairly robust aircraft-building industry and look where they are today. This can be our future as well."
But the real sleeper this year is the announcement by Brazil's Embraer of its Phenom-series of mini-jets. Small, seating only a few persons, the Phenom models are specifically designed for the executive trying to escape from airline hell or the well-heeled soccer mom who has had enough of the absurd experience of having TSA confiscate your toddler's sippy cup on grounds of national security.
A day at the show is exhausting and dehydrating, but an eye-opener in terms of how much aerospace means in the modern world--how much it affects much of what we do in daily life and how technology is making our flying machines, better, faster and more efficient.
Tomorrow: What the defense business is like 17 years after the cold war.
 Northrop Grumman's MQ-8B Fire Scout A new unmanned helicopter could revolutionize the way special operations forces working in hard-to-reach environments are resupplied with beans, bullets, and band aids. But while Northrop Grumman's MQ-8B Fire Scout might someday serve in a close air support role and offer the Navy a platform for destroying enemy submarines and surface vessels, that type of capability is still a long way off. In fact, Fire Scout is only one of many new UAV programs that are keeping defense contractors busy and tempting the military with the prospect of war without (friendly) casualties. To be fair, the Fire Scout is one of the more interesting UAVs on display in Paris--unlike many of its competitors, it is capable of vertical takeoff and landing. Still, it's unclear that this unmanned helicopter would offer the U.S. military a capability not already available. According to Northrop, the Fire Scout is already in late stage development for the U.S. Army and Navy and is generating interest in 13 foreign markets.
The Fire Scout's specs seem impressive: 125+ knot airspeed, a flight ceiling of 20,000 feet, and a 600 lb maximum payload. But Lockheed Martin's manned/unmanned K-MAX helicopter, although slightly slower, can carry 6,000 lbs at sea level and 5,000 lbs at 9,500 feet, with a ceiling of 29,000 feet. Similarly, some of the Fire Scout's gizmos and gadgets--like a harpoon on its underbelly that anchors it to the flight deck and its modular payload system--don't seem to offer much in the way of new capability. But there are a lot of skeptics out there, including WWS pal Christian Lowe, who wrote last month that,
It seems like a classic case of a Pentagon project on life support, bouncing from the Navy to the Marine Corps and now as part of the Army's (potentially doomed) FCS program.
Another potential problem is Northrop's emphasis on interfacing the Fire Scout with the Littoral Combat Ship, a program that seemed at one point to embody the Navy's future but is now on the brink of collapse. Still, Dave Fuqua, Northrop's Business Development Manager for the Fire Scout, says he's not worried because of the Fire Scout's versatile ability that "qualifies it to land on all air capable ships."
The Fire Scout does have the potential to wreak havoc on the enemy, as demonstrated by a successful rocket test in Yuma, AZ in July of 2005, but first it will need a radar--a hurdle that the company has yet to overcome despite the fact that many other UAVs have already achieved weaponization. But the real issue may simply be that the Fire Scout is trying to fill a role that's already been ably filled by other platforms. Three Fire Scouts with rotor blades folded have the same footprint as one Navy H-60 Seahawk, but it's unclear as to whether there's any mission that three Fire Scouts can carry out as well as one workhorse H-60. The Fire Scout is a "complement, not replacement" to current helicopters and weapons systems, the program manager said. But in the meantime, the Navy is more than capable of defeating whatever subs, ships, and air assets with which it comes into contact.
At a lecture hosted by Sikorsky Aircraft, the company that bears his late father Igor's name, Sergei Sikorsky today recalled attending the air show in the early 1950s, when it was first held at Le Bourget field, here in the northern suburbs of Paris. The show featured an appearance by Charles Lindbergh, who had made the airfield famous by landing at it in 1927, completing his historic trans-Atlantic flight. (Lindbergh and Igor Sikorsky had a long professional collaboration, beginning when Lindbergh was the first pilot of Sikorsky’s pathbreaking S-40 "flying boat.")
 Sergei Sikorsky As Sergei tells the story, Lindbergh was interviewed at the show by a young reporter who was aware he was a famous man. But not quite recalling the source of Lindbergh’s celebrity, she asked the following immortal question: "Is this your first trip to Paris, Mr. Lindbergh?" Ah, yes, a reporter’s worst nightmare: when enthusiasm outstrips knowledge, resulting in public humiliation.
Sergei Sikorsky’s affecting presentation could not have been better timed, coming the day after Father’s Day. He described that "moment of transition" at age 16 when he realized that the man he knew as a father was known to the world as an immortal aviation pioneer: the inventor, among many other innovative aircraft, of the single-rotor helicopter—"considered impossible by all the reputable engineers of the time," Sergei said, putting deliciously ironic emphasis on the word "reputable."
His father, Sergei said, was most proud of the fact that the helicopter had become "a unique instrument for the saving of human lives." He estimated that "two millions lives have been saved by the helicopter." This is a testament to the ability of the helicopter to land in remote locations beyond the reach of roads and runways, thus making it the vehicle of choice to deal with natural disasters. Not to mention its well known ability to ferry the injured to medical care from battlefields and accident scenes. One of the slides he displayed showed the first public demonstration of a rescue hoist raising someone up into a hovering helicopter. The "someone" in the hoist? That was the young Sergei Sikorsky.
According to Sergei, his father was a great admirer of the Wright brothers, and not just for their inventiveness. He said that the brothers had figured out that aviation pioneers needed to know two things--the first being how to design and build aircraft, the second being how “to stay alive.” In what Sergei called three miraculous years, his father "taught himself how to design airplanes, taught himself how to build airplanes, and taught himself how to fly airplanes." Nowadays, of course, the species of self-taught pilots is vanishingly rare. On second thought, it always was a rare breed. Igor Sikorsky’s first five airplanes, his son said, lasted an average of five minutes in the air before they crashed. But his father was a survivor, and then some, dying in 1972 at the age of 83.
 Commandant of the Marine Corps
General James Conway. In the recent past, the American presence at the Paris Air Show was distinctly subdued, a casualty of what you might call the Chirac-Rumsfeld era of Franco-American relations. This year the place is crawling with Americans.
On my way to see the introductory address from the American ambassador, I am instead swept away in a sea of green uniforms. It's the entourage of the Commandant of the Marine Corps, General James Conway, comprising at least two colonels, one brigadier general, the Sgt Major of the Marine Corps Carlton Kent, and the first lady of the Marine Corps Mrs. Conway. I manage to compliment the charming Mrs. Conway for her beautiful home at the Marine Barracks at 8th and I in Washington, D.C. (which I was lucky enough to have toured a week ago). It's the oldest continually inhabited house in the capital, chock full of portraits of former Commandants and priceless antiques. She receives me warmly and advises me to come back any time.
Alas, I've now missed the ambassador's press conference, but at the Paris Air Show it's impossible to find yourself with nothing to do. I only make it about 10 yards when I am surrounded by more military brass than I have ever seen in my life (including the just-departed contingent of Marines). The glare off the stars on these top-ranking officers is almost blinding. In front of me are at least five Chinese generals who don't look too upset at being subjected to my flash photography.
 Red brass.
Behind them I find some of our NATO friends from the Italian navy. A short walk further on are the first U.S. Army officers I've seen. When I ask a colonel what the Army is doing here I find out this group is actually on the staff of the Joint Chiefs and thus unable to answer my question. With him is U.S. Air Force Lt General Jeffrey B. Kohler, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (they oversee U.S. foreign military sales). The list goes on, and with so many countries and services present, identifying uniforms and testing foreign military officers' language skills quickly becomes a game of trivial pursuit.
But one last group of officers catches my eye. I observe a group of Italian pilots in flight suits browsing a gift stand. They affirm the universal reputation of pilots and bring it to an entirely new level with side-burns longer than Elvis and stylish designer sunglasses, while one even sports a "soul patch" under his lip. I can't say I'm a big fan of the soul patch, but perhaps I should take a fashion cue from the cream of the Italian air force before an upcoming trip to Rome. Then again, the Marines looked much sharper...but again my train of thought is interrupted--my shoulder is aching, time for another croissant break.
 The stylish airmen of the Italian Air Force.
There's a fairly large delegation from the United States Senate at the show. Led by Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, the crew seems to be having a pretty good time. Kansas City, or the "Paris of the Plains" as it is being called here, has set up a booth featuring a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. Here you can see Colorado Senator Wayne Allard enjoying the photo-op.
After the opening ceremony, the senators moved on to the the Honeywell exhibition space to check out that company's 3-D Flight Deck. Here we see Senators Mikulski, Allard, and Stevens (from right to left) wearing their 3-D glasses in what has to be one of the funniest images of the day.
Finally, my personal favorite from this morning. I have no idea what these girls are promoting--if you can't make out the writing on the lycra, here's the link--but whatever it is, I'm sure we need three of them.
The flying demonstrations have been underway for about an hour now, and your correspondent is stuck in the press "chalet"--so that's all for now. But I was able to sit down with Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe for about a half hour this morning and will have more to report on that conversation in a little while.
 Senators Stevens (R-Alaska) and Mikulski (D-Maryland) cut the ribbon inside the American exhibition space.
The U.S. pavilion kicked off the air show in grand fashion, with a ribbon-cutting ceremony, speeches by industry officials, and a few words from Senator Ted Stevens, who is attending the show on behalf of President Bush. In the audience were Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition Claude Bolton, Marine Corps Commandant General James Conway, and NASA Administrator Michael Griffin.
Everyone rolls their eyes when you tell them it's your first time attending the Paris Air Show. At a press dinner last night hosted by Lockheed Martin, a succession of executives smiled when I said it was my first air show and said, "prepared to be overwhelmed." The numbers are staggering: Almost 2,000 exhibitors, 400,000 visitors expected over the course of the next week. The scale is vast: walking at a reasonable clip from one end of the show to the other takes the better part of an hour. The variety of the flying machines is extraordinary, from the Airbus A380 double-decker jumbo jet, to unmanned aircraft that are barely larger than the model planes one flew as a child.
And it's striking just how many unmanned aircraft are on display here, from small, tactical UAVs that can be launched by hand, to large, stealthy UCAVs--unmanned combat aerial vehicles. The snapshot below is the Dassault UCAV technology demonstrator, and above right you can see the small Skylark UAV, produced by the Israeli firm Elbit.
The Israelis in particular have a wide array of UAVs on display at the show, including the massive Heron, which is making its debut today (click here for a hi-res image).
More to follow soon.
Paris, France
The City of Lights is several times more expensive than it was back in the late eighties, it is even more overrun with pickpockets, but a 12-year reign by one of the more contrarian European heads of state has come to an end. Everyone asks now if France can restore its former glory, patch up its relations with Washington, and address the social dislocations that cause increasing strains with its Muslim population.
But most of these developments pale in comparison to how much the Le Bourget air show has changed since I first saw it twenty years ago. Called simply “the Paris Air Show” by most of those who attend it, the biennial aerospace extravaganza (officially, the Salon international de l'aéronautique et de l'espace de Paris-Le Bourget) symbolizes the long, distinguished history of aviation in France by being held at the same Le Bourget aerodrome where Charles Lindbergh landed after his 1927 solo flight across the Atlantic in the Spirit of St. Louis.
(There is a small brass plaque set flush with the surface of the tarmac that is inlaid on the far end of the huge aerodrome--marking the spot where Lindbergh first stepped out of his aircraft and onto French soil. Good luck finding it. France has always considered itself to be the birthplace of modern aviation and they have never recovered from the multiple embarrassments that the first man to fly a dirigible from the Parc Saint Cloud and circle around the Eiffel tower in less than 30 minutes in 1901 was a Brazilian--Alberto Santos-Dumont--and that the first aeroplane flight and the first solo flight across the Atlantic were accomplished by Americans--the Wright Brothers and Lindbergh. So this plaque is not properly sign-posted as a landmark. You practically have to stumble across it.)
The contrasts with Le Bourget of the late 1980s are startling. In 1989, the then-Soviet Union was opening up to the West. For only the second time since the 1930s a Soviet fighter aircraft appeared at an international air show. It was the debut appearance abroad for the Sukhoi Su-27. The crowd was expecting something out of this world, and they were not disappointed.
 The Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker. Sukhoi test pilot Viktor Pugachev put the aircraft through a series of acrobatic twists and turns that seemed to defy gravity. Flight routines like his famous “Cobra Maneuver” and the “Tail Slide” that then-Mikoyan test pilot Anatoliy Kvochur made famous in the MiG-29 have become almost blasé in the present day. Watch this year’s flight by the MiG-29OVT thrust vectoring testbed aircraft and you can see the difference.
Kvochur also became well-known in a way that he would rather not have at the 1989 show by crashing his MiG-29 fighter following the low-speed, high angle-of-attack portion of his flight routine. It was the first crash of a Soviet aircraft at Paris since the Tupolev Tu-144 “Concordski” went down at the 1973 show. That year the Soviets indignantly packed up and went home, but in 1989 they stayed to the end and tried to put a positive spin on the reasons for the crash. They knew there was also a crash of their own way of life coming, and they couldn't just walk away from either one of them and pretend that they did not exist.
Continue reading "The Paris Air Show, Twenty Years On" »
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