May 19, 2008 • Vol. 13, No. 34
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The new Pakistani government has wasted no time in kicking off negotiations with the Taliban. Just two months after taking office, the government has cut a deal with a radical Taliban group in the Malakand Division of the Northwest Frontier Province. This Monday, a peace deal was struck with the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law, a group that sent more than 10,000 fighters to attack U.S. troops during the opening phase of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001 and 2002. The government, which had declared this Taliban group illegal, has openly negotiated with it and freed its leader, Sufi Mohmammed, who was captured while attempting to lead fighters into Afghanistan to attack U.S. forces.
Yesterday, the government announced it was negotiating with none other than Baitullah Mehsud, the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Baitullah has also led a suicide and military campaign against the military and government over the past two years. Al Qaeda’s senior leadership is believed to shelter in South Waziristan, where Baitullah rules. Al Qaeda maintains terror camps in the region.
The US State Department has weighed in on the negotiations. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said the department is "supportive"" of the negotiations. "You have to talk to people," said Boucher. "The Pakistani government is engaged in discussion designed to stop violence. It's got to be done in a way that produces results, that reduces violence."
The Pakistani government cut similar deals with the Taliban in North and South Waziristan in 2006 and in Bajaur, Mohmand, and Swat in 2007. The Taliban consolidated control in these regions and expanded their power base into many settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province. The Taliban never lived up to the terms of the agreements, instead they established Islamic emirates, enforced sharia law, and used their new safe havens to strike inside Pakistan and at Afghanistan, India, and the West.
The Maoist-controlled assembly in Nepal intends to dethrone King Gyanendra if he will not step down "gracefully." Grace is not a trait one generally associates with Maoist party members let alone the Nepalese royal family. Do recall King Gyanendra ascended to the throne after the Crown Prince of Nepal killed his entire family, and then committed suicide. Unlike your garden variety monarch, King Gyanendra is considered a living God—an incarnation of Vishnu, to be precise. Like all living Gods, he was educated at Eton where boyhood friends described him as "moody." Well, heaven no doubt awaits this moody, living God. If he can get out of his country alive, it will just take the slightly less literal form of winters in Gstaad and summers in the French Riviera. Poor God.
The "habit" being the Indian Armed Forces' addiction to Russian military gear. I'd love to see the West drive a wedge between India and the Russia-China defense partnership, this seems to be a start:
India is likely to make a formal announcement on the awarding of a one-billion dollar contract to Lockheed Martin for six Hercules transport planes in the biggest military aircraft deal with the U.S. in five decades, defense officials said.
U.S.-based Lockheed is also in the race for a 10-billion dollar contract to sell 126 fighter jets to the Indian air force and the tenders will be handed out next month.
India is also in talks with BAE Systems for 40 Hawk trainer jets worth 872 million dollars in addition to 66 aircraft it purchased for 1.45 billion dollars in 2004 from the British company.
India may also announce a two-billion-dollar contract with U.S.-based Boeing for eight long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft during the event besides forging several tie-ups between the Indian private sector and global companies.
Russia is still learning the ins-and-outs of capitalism, in that it appears that some of the most obvious rules of the free market still escape them. Rule No. 1: if you push an inferior product, customers will look elsewhere.
| | Red agencies/ districts controlled by the Taliban; purple is defacto control; yellow is under threat |
Pakistan has finally admitted what many of us have been saying for years: the country is fighting a counterinsurgency campaign on its own soil. The Musharraf government recognizes “that they had a growing issue in FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Agency] that could be described correctly as an insurgency and they seem now to be cueing up to take it on,” said General Dan McNeill, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, after a recent meeting with Musharraf and Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai. “I think they also know that they need a maximum adjustment in their force perhaps in training and equipping to be able to prosecute this fight the right way.”
That Musharraf is finally able to admit he is fighting a counterinsurgency campaign in the tribal areas is a good start, but the truth is the Taliban has branched out far beyond that area and into the greater Northwest Frontier Province. Peshawar, the provincial capital, has been buffeted by suicide attacks and a host of Taliban inspired violence and intimidation since late 2006. The Taliban have been active in Tank, Khyber, and Peshawar since early 2006. A government report stated that settled districts of Bannu, Lakki Marwat, and Swat were falling into a state of "Talibanisation, lawlessness and terrorism" in April 2007.
The Taliban overran Swat and Shangla in the fall of 2007 after signing a peace accord in the spring, and the Pakistani military has been waging intense battles since late November to dislodge the terrorists. Just yesterday in Bannu, "militants" took more than 250 children hostage. A Beslan-like situation was narrowly averted when a tribal committee stepped forward and secured free passage for the terrorists. The military recently fought a pitched three-day battle with the Taliban in Darra Adam Khel and Kohat, where the Taliban took over a tunnel on the Indus Highway.
This list is hardly comprehensive. Fighting is ongoing in Swat, Orakzai, and South Waziristan. Bajaur remains an al Qaeda command and control center. And the government is looking to cut yet another "peace accord" with the Taliban in North Waziristan. So while the Pakistani government is just now coming to terms with the insurgency in the tribal areas, the problem has already extended far beyond that. Until the government becomes serious about waging an intensive counterinsurgency campaign, the problem will only continue to grow.
In what can be best described as an opinion piece published on its website, CJTF-82, the U.S. military command for eastern Afghanistan, has taken Dutch politician and filmmaker Geert Wilders to task for announcing the production of a short film on the Koran. CJTF-82 begins its piece, provocatively titled "Stirring the Hate," by questioning Wilder's motivations:
Ostensibly an exercise in the Party for Freedom’s right to free speech, Dutch politician Geert Wilders prepares to release a new anti-Islam film. Wilders will not comment on details of the movie but says it will show that Islam’s Holy Book, the Quran "is an inspiration for intolerance, murder and terror".
Wilders close political association with Ayaan Hirsi Ali and film maker Theo Van Gogh, sent Wilders into hiding after Van Gogh’s assassination by a Muslim extremist following the release of “Submission”, a film which criticized the treatment of women in Islamic society. The publication of the “Muhammad Cartoons” in September of 2005 caused protests and riots as over 200 people were killed by violence around the world. In Afghanistan there were protests in Maymana, Bagram, Kandahar, Mehtar-Lam and Kabul Violence in neighboring Pakistan was even worse. Wilders website was one of several that re-published the cartoons after the initial violent demonstrations had begun, citing a defense of freedom of speech and igniting further violence. Polls immediately following the Van Gogh assassination predicted the possibility of the Party for Freedom winning as many as 29 seats (of 150) in upcoming Dutch parliamentary elections. By October of 2005 the number had slipped to one, rising again to three following the “Muhammad Cartoons” controversy. While his party does favor immigration restrictions, especially from non-western countries; the corresponding surge in popularity provides a suspicious motive for his latest “exercise in free speech.” resulting in at least 5 deaths.
Leaving aside Wilders's motivation for making the film, one wonders why CJTF-82 posted this article on its website in the first place. Should CJTF-82, which is engaged in the fight in Afghanistan, be injecting itself into a debate over free speech in Holland, an allied nation with troops currently deployed in Afghanistan? Is it appropriate for the U.S. military to criticize the actions of a leader of a foreign political party? And has CJTF-82 officially determined that Wilders is responsible for "igniting further violence" by publishing the Muhammad cartoons?
We suspect the answers are no, no, and no. Fewer movie reviews and more like this, please.
| | Click image to view the slideshow of the Taliban Leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan. |
The Taliban Leadership presentation looks at the major players in the Taliban movement in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban movement spans the Pashtun tribal areas from western Pakistan to eastern and southern Afghanistan. Taliban leaders in Pakistan, such as Baitullah Mehsud, have sworn fealty to Mullah Omar and provide active support for attacks against NATO and Afghan security forces. Many of the Taliban leaders are closely associated with al Qaeda's Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, or other al Qaeda leaders.
Note: Bajaur's Taliban leaders, Sufi Mohammed and Faqir Mohammed of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM - the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law), are not pictured as images of these men are not available. The presentation will be updated if photos become available.
The mystery of the dismissal of two European diplomats from Afghanistan appears to have been solved. The Times of London reports the UN and European Union diplomats were expelled by the Afghan government for negotiating with none other than Mullah Mansoor Dadullah, the Taliban's southern commander.
They held secret meetings with Mansoor Dadullah--a thorn in the side of British military in Helmand province--to try to persuade him to break with the Taliban and form his own political party and militia, according to Afghan government sources.
If they had succeeded it would have been a coup for the western allies shoring up the government of Hamid Karzai in Kabul. Instead, Mervyn Patterson, a high-ranking UN official, and Michael Semple, the acting head of the EU mission to Afghanistan, were expelled after an Afghan national “confessed” to Afghan intelligence that he had accompanied the two to a secret meeting with Dadullah in Musa Qala.
The choice of Mansoor Dadullah as a potential candidate to be split for the Taliban was a poor one. Mansoor follows in the footsteps of his brother, Mullah Dadullah Ahkund, a legendary and brutal Taliban commander who was killed by British forces. Mansoor has continued his brother's legacy, and conducted vicious attacks against NATO and Afghan forces. Dadullah has ordered the suicide campaign to continue against military and civilian targets.
Back in December a report in This is London, a British newspaper, indicated the British government believes the Taliban is made up of a small core of ideological zealots, no more than several hundred leaders, with the rest of the organization being comprised of foot soldiers.
This poor assessment of the nature of the Taliban led to negotiations with the likes of Mansoor Dadullah. There was no chance Mansoor could be bought off to turn on Mullah Omar and the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, as he and his fighters are committed to the Taliban cause.
On the bright side, negotiations with Mansoor led to his dismissal by Mullah Omar.
| | Osama bin Laden escorted by the Black Guard. Click image to view. |
A senior al Qaeda commander has been reported to have been captured in the Pakistani city of Lahore, according to a Pakistani newspaper. Dr. Amin al Haq, the security coordinator of Osama bin Laden’s Black Guard, “was apprehended from Lahore couple of days back,” the Nation reported, citing “credible Afghan sources.” Al Haq is said to be “under interrogation” at an undisclosed location.
The report of al Haq’s capture has not been confirmed, according to a senior intelligence official. U.S. intelligence agencies are aware of the report.
Al Haq has a long pedigree with both the Taliban and al Qaeda. He was born in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province, was educated as a doctor, and practiced medicine in Pakistan. “He was associated with Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan headed by late Maulvi Younas Khalis, which joined the Taliban Movement in 1996,” the Nation reported. He “was also part of the Afghan delegation flown to Sudan in 1996 to bring Osama bin Laden to Afghanistan.”
On December 19, 2000, al Haq was identified as a senior member of al Qaeda per United Nations resolution 1267. He accompanied Osama bin Laden during the 2001 battle at Tora Bora in Nangarhar province, and helped senior al Qaeda leaders escape the U.S. and Afghan militia assault on the cave complex. During renewed fighting at Tora Bora in the summer of 2007, al Haq was reported to have been wounded and fled across the border into Pakistan's Kurram tribal agency.
As security coordinator for the Black Guard, it is believed al Haq would be in close proximity to Osama bin Laden. U.S. intelligence believes Osama bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan’s tribal agencies, a claim the Pakistani government has denied. Many of the senior al Qaeda leader captured in Pakistan since September 11, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Musab al-Suri, have been detained in Pakistan’s major cities.
Several senior al Qaeda leaders--such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Saif al Adel, and Walid bin Attash--rose through the ranks in al Qaeda by serving in the Black Guard. A Special Forces raid against the Black Guard camp in Danda Saidgai in North Waziristan, Pakistan, in March 2006 resulted in the death of Imam Asad and several dozen members of the Black Guard. Asad was the camp commander, a senior Chechen al Qaeda commander, and associate of Shamil Basayev, the Chechen al Qaeda leader killed by Russian security forces in July 2006.
Fighting between the Taliban and the Pakistani military has been reported in the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan and the settled district of Swat. In South Waziristan, the military is attacking Baitullah Mehsud's Taliban after the kidnapping of four soldiers, while in Swat, the army continues its slow advance through the former vacation spot.
Forces from Baitullah Mehsud's Taliban kidnapped four paramilitary soldiers in the town of Makeen on New Years Day, which has sparked the recent round of fighting in the Taliban sanctuary. The Pakistani military immediate launched artillery and helicopter gunship assaults on Taliban positions in the town of Makeen after their soldiers were captured, and claimed to have killed 25 Taliban fighters and captured another 20 during the strikes. Today, helicopters struck at Taliban positions "in three different areas of [the] Mehsud tribe," KUNA reported. Up to 10 "tribesmen" were reported killed.
Makeen is the last known location of Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan, or Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. Baitullah was appointed leader of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan after a gathering of local Taliban leaders throughout the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province in mid-December. Pakistani intelligence intercepted a communication where Baitullah took credit for Benazir Bhutto's assassination and stated he was in the tow near the Afghan border.
Continue reading "Taliban, Military Clash in South Waziristan, Swat" »
Within one day of the Bhutto assassination in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi, there are multiple contradictory reports on how Benazir Bhutto was killed. The Pakistani government has changed its portrayal of her death three times in the 24 hours since her death. First she was reported to have been shot in the head and chest with AK-47 gunfire, then she was reported to have been killed by ball bearings from a suicide blast, and finally she died after suffering a skull fracture from hitting her head on the sunroof after the suicide bomber detonated.
The Daily Times, one of Pakistan's most reliable newspapers, reported that Bhutto was killed by gunfire after she poked through the sunroof to great her supporters.
*Benazir Bhutto was leaving Liaquat Bagh after addressing the rally when her vehicle, a Black Lexus bulletproof vehicle, stopped near the venue's gate where PPP workers were shouting party slogans.
* Benazir came out from the sunroof of her vehicle to respond to her supporters' slogans when a motorcyclist opened Kalashnikov fire on her.
* Benazir fell inside her vehicle after receiving bullet injuries on her head and neck.
* The attacker blew himself up after firing the shots.
This report is consistent with statements from two Bhutto aides, who said Bhutto was shot and bleeding once she got back inside the car. "Rescuers found Bhutto lying in pool of blood on the back seat. A senior party official, Amin Fahim, who had been sitting beside her, said he heard 'between three and five shots,'" the Guardian reported. "Amir Qureshi, a bodyguard from Bhutto's youth wing who had been jogging alongside her vehicle, said she was shot first in the neck, then in the head... Doctors administered open heart massage but Bhutto died from a bullet that severed her spinal cord, one medic at the Rawalpindi hospital said."
"She was hit in the neck and slumped back in the vehicle," the Herald Sun reported. "Blood poured from her head, and she never regained consciousness." A Pakistan Peoples Party spokesman also stated Bhutto "fell inside the vehicle after receiving bullets in her head and neck."
This account matches that of multiple police officers and eyewitnesses on the scene, including John Moore, a photographer from Getty Images, who was 20 yards from Bhutto during the attack. Moore clearly states that Bhutto went through the sunroof prior to the explosion:
"I ran up, got as close as I got, made a few pictures of her waving to the crowd," Getty Images senior staff photographer John Moore told CNN's online streaming news service, CNN.com Live, in a phone interview Thursday from Islamabad, Pakistan.
"And then suddenly, there were a few gunshots that rang out, and she went down, she went down through the sunroof," he said. "And just at that moment I raised my camera up and the blast happened. ... And then, of course, there was chaos."
Last evening, the Pakistani government changed the story. News reports indicated that nvestigators told a top-level meeting, led by President Pervez Musharraf, that Bhutto was killed by shrapnel from the suicide bombing. "The initial report that was submitted to the high-level meeting disclosed that Benazir Bhutto was hit by the ball bearings of the suicide bomber's jacket that hit and cut her jugular vain," the paper stated. "It caused her excessive internal and external bleeding. As a result, she died in no time. The report was submitted before the post-mortem was performed on her body. The exact nature of the wounds would be determined by the post-mortem report."
Continue reading "Bhutto's Death: Gunshot, Shrapnel, or Fracture?" »
The Pakistani government has directly implicated the commander of the newly created Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema claimed the government intercepted a phone conversation between none other than Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and Maulvi Sahib, one of Mehsud's underlings.
The Telegraph has the transcript of the alleged recording. Baitullah congratulates Sahib, who explains the attack was carried out by three of their own operatives.
Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations, I just got back during the night.
Baitullah Mehsud: Congratulations to you, were they our men?
Maulvi Sahib: Yes they were ours.
Baitullah Mehsud: Who were they?
Maulvi Sahib: There was Saeed, there was Bilal from Badar and Ikramullah.
Baitullah Mehsud: The three of them did it?
Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.
Baitullah Mehsud: Then congratulations.
Yesterday, Mustafa Abu al Yazid, al Qaeda's commander in Afghanistan, boasted to a Pakistani journalist that al Qaeda was behind the attack. "We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen," Yazid said in a phone call to Syed Saleem Shahzad.
The Pakistan government's claim that Baitullah Mehsud is behind the attack and al Qaeda's claim of credit for the strike are not mutually exclusive. The Bhutto assassination also was very likely carried out with support from inside the police, military, and intelligence agencies.
Continue reading "Pakistan Implicates Baitullah Mehsud in Bhutto Assassination" »
Arianna Huffington has posted a rather moving elegy for her late and long-time friend Benazir Bhutto:
The world is debating the political fallout from Benazir Bhutto's assassination -- from fear of chaos in Pakistan to the impact of her death in Iowa. There is already no shortage of analysis about the national security implications of her death, but I want to write about the young woman I met in England before she became a player on the world stage.
She was at Oxford. I was at Cambridge. And by a strange coincidence I became president of the Cambridge Union and she became president of the Oxford Union. The anomaly of two foreign women heading the two unions meant that we ended up debating each other around England on topics ranging from British politics to broad generalities about the impact of technological advance on mankind.
I'm struck by how many Americans have offered these kind of personal anecdotes as a testament to Bhutto's character. She had written a diary at Slate, a blog at the Huffington Post, and apparently kept a correspondence with Mark Siegel--and this is the tip of the iceberg I'm sure. Christopher Hitchens offers a more even account, but he's no less troubled by her death (he, too, had personal history with Bhutto). Of course, not everyone is sad to see her go, but for all her faults, she was right on what mattered most--she was an ally in the war against Islamic extremism.
According to the US Census Bureau, approximately 35,000 New Yorkers (out of a total population of slightly more than 8 million) claimed Pakistani ancestry in the 2000 Census. That amounts to about 0.4 percent of the entire population of the city.
So why is New York City Mayor Bloomberg so fast to issue a statement on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto?
"Today all New Yorkers, including the more than 100,000 who can trace their heritage to Pakistan, are saddened to learn about the assassination of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Hers was a voice for democracy, and the silencing of it — by such brutal means — is a shock to us all. Ms. Bhutto's death — and the deaths of the many other Pakistanis who were killed today simply for expressing their views — is a great loss for friends of democracy and for everyone who is united in the fight against terror. It's also a grim reminder that many people consider the freedoms we cherish a threat. The perpetrators of this violent act must be brought to justice, and it is my hope that President Musharraf will follow through on free and fair elections in January as a testament to Ms. Bhutto's legacy."
Obviously there's no overriding reason for the Mayor not to react, but this all sounds a little outside the purview of the mayor, vaguely presidential even.
NRO has just posted a forum titled "After Bhutto" with some good analysis.
Jonathan Foreman writes that Musharraf is likely to be "badly damaged at least in the short term," and that "this could easily grow into widespread civil unrest, especially in the wake of her funeral tomorrow." He holds out some hope that the assassination will have the effect of forcing the country's political and military elite to take the threat from Islamic extremism more seriously--though one would think that the nine attempts on Musharraf's life, the complete loss of control in the tribal areas, and the frequent attacks on Pakistani military installations would have already done as much.
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross says this will give a boost to Nawaz Sharif, as he is, by default, now Pakistan's top opposition figure. And Victor Davis Hanson writes:
Our relations were always based on the flawed idea its Islamic and autocratic essence made it a good bulwark against communist Russia and socialist India. But the world has changed, and we should too. It is long past time to smile and curtail aid — and quit arming it with weapons that are more likely to be used against our friend India as bin Laden.
More there from Roggio, Henry Sokolski, Stanley Kurtz, and others.
 Mustafa Abu al Yazid Al Qaeda's central command is taking credit for today's successful assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. A senior al Qaeda military leader in Afghanistan has contacted Syed Saleem Shahzad, a Pakistani journalist for the Asia Times and Adnkronos International with close connections to the Taliban and al Qaeda, and bragged about killing Bhutto.
"We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen," Mustafa Abu al Yazid, al Qaeda's commander in Afghanistan, told Shahzad.
"It is believed that the decision to kill Bhutto, who is the leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP), was made by al-Qaeda No. 2, the Egyptian doctor, Ayman al-Zawahiri in October," Shahzad als reported. "Death squads were allegedly constituted for the mission and ultimately one cell comprising a defunct Lashkar-i-Jhangvi’s Punjabi volunteer succeeded in killing Bhutto."
Mustafa Abu al Yazid has long been the leader of al Qaeda in Afghanistan. In May, Yazid was officially appointed al Qaeda's military commander in Afghanistan.
The Lashkar-e-Jhangavi and other indigenous Pakistani terror groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammned and Lashkar-e-Taiba (which is now Jamaatud Dawa) essentially serve as muscle for al Qaeda in Pakistan. Based on the sophistication of the Bhutto assassination, al Qaeda and the Taliban were very likely assisted by infiltrators and sympathizers in the Pakistani military and Inter Services Intelligence agency.
Over at Hot Air, Bryan writes:
What does “justice” mean in the context of jihad, if jihadists perpetrated this attack? When they’re caught, tried and imprisoned in some countries, they remain unapologetic enemies of the rest of the world and they tend to get early parole. If they’re not allowed to escape by allies in strategic government positions. When we capture them and hold them at Guantanamo, “human rights” groups agitate for them and the ACLU goes to bat for them while the MSM reports their fabricated accusations against our personnel as truth, all while the political opposition works to grant them full habeas corpus rights. So what does “justice” mean when these assassins, whoever they may turn out to be, could well have touched off a civil war in a nuclear country?
It should be emphasized that Pakistan has become the main front for al Qaeda not only because of the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the compromises of Musharraf with the radicals, but because al Qaeda in Iraq is being beaten and they are seeking a more vulnerable front. Pakistan has been the second bloodiest theater in the GWOT after Iraq for years now. So while it's all well and good to say that the perpetrators, almost certainly members of al Qaeda, must be brought to justice, as Bryan points out, there is no justice for terrorists. The only good terrorist is a dead terrorist.
Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistani People's party, has been assassinated while campaigning in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi. Bhutto, who was a favorite to be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, was killed along with at least 20 of her supporters and security detail in a shooting attack and suicide bombing as she was exiting the campaign procession in her vehicle.
The first accounts of the assassination indicate the shooter and the suicide bomber were the same person. "Party supporter Chaudry Mohammed Nazir said that two gunshots rang out when Bhutto's vehicle pulled into the main street and then there was a big blast next to her car," the AP reported. "The man first fired at Bhutto's vehicle," Rawalpindi police officer Mohammad Shahid told Reuters. "She ducked and then he blew himself up."
Bhutto was taken to Rawalpindi General Hospital and was treated for "serious head injuries besides bullet injuries in the neck region," Safdar Abbasi, Bhutto's aide said. She was reported shot in the neck and chest, but Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Cheema said "It may have been pellets packed into the suicide bomber's vest that hit her."
The mode of attack suggests a level of training, discipline, and expertise of a military organization. If bullets penetrated Bhutto's vehicle windshield, which no doubt was bullet proof, the shooter was using armor-piercing rounds and had good aim. There is the possibility a sniper was placed elsewhere and aided the assault, although this has not been confirmed. The shooter also had the discipline to detonate his suicide vest after the confusion of firing into her vehicle.
Today's attack occurred in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi, which the Pakistani military presumably controls. This was was the fifth bombing targeting military and political leaders in Rawalpindi since July.
This was the second strike against Bhutto since her return to Pakistan in mid-October. The first attack also showed a level of sophistication, training, and discipline typical of a military operation. In the October attack on Bhutto's return processional in Karachi, snipers, suicide bombers, and a car bomb were coordinated among a blanket of security. The attack came close to killing Bhutto. Over 132 Pakistanis were killed and upwards of 500 wounded.
Bhutto supporters have begun to blame President Pervez Musharraf for her death. The sophistication of the attack, the governments reported refusal to provide adequate security, as well as the location of the bombing, have created distrust among Bhutto supporters.
But this attack was most likely carried out by the Taliban and al Qaeda. Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the newly united Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, threatened to kill Bhutto upon her return in October. The Taliban and al Qaeda manage training camps in Pakistan's tribal areas and have trainers and recruits from the Pakistani military in their ranks.
"My men will welcome Bhutto on her return," Baitullah told a former senator. "We don’t accept President General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto because they only protect the US interest and see things through its glasses. They’re only acceptable if they wear the Pakistani glasses."
Bhutto was believed to be the frontrunner as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. She returned to Pakistan after significant pressure on the Musharraf government was applied by the United States. Bhutto promised to rid the tribal regions of the Taliban and al Qaeda. Elections are to be held on January 8, 2007.
Not content to pull out of Basrah before the security situation there could be settled, it seems the British have again sought to conduct negotiations with the Taliban, the group that sheltered al Qaeda prior to and after September 11.
On December 11, This is London reported that Prime Minister Gordon Brown was set to tell Parliament that "negotiation [with the Taliban] is the only way to bring peace to the war torn country." This report was not substantiated by the major British news outlets, and in fact the next day Prime Minister Brown stated there would be no negotiations with the Taliban.
But it appears the British have already conducted negotiations with the Taliban. The Telegraph reports:
Agents from MI6 entered secret talks with Taliban leaders despite Gordon Brown's pledge that Britain would not negotiate with terrorists, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
Officers from the Secret Intelligence Service staged discussions, known as "jirgas", with senior insurgents on several occasions over the summer.
An intelligence source said: "The SIS officers were understood to have sought peace directly with the Taliban with them coming across as some sort of armed militia. The British would also provide 'mentoring' for the Taliban." ...
MI6's meetings with the Taliban took place up to half a dozen times at houses on the outskirts of Lashkah Gah and in villages in the Upper Gereshk valley, to the north-east of Helmand's main town.
The compounds were surrounded by a force of British infantry providing a security cordon.To maintain the stance that President Hamid Karzai's government was leading the negotiations the clandestine meetings took place in the presence of Afghan officials.
"These meetings were with up to a dozen Taliban or with Taliban who had only recently laid down their arms," an intelligence source said. "The impression was that these were important motivating figures inside the Taliban."
According to the paper, the Tory opposition is now looking into the report to determine if Prime Minister Brown misled them during the December 12 question and answer session in the House of Commons.
It should not be surprising that the British are willing to sit down with the Taliban to conduct direct talks. The source for the This is London report [which is no longer available online] stated that the British government does not view the Taliban as "united force," but a "disparate group of tribesmen infiltrated by foreign fighters." The same source held up Musa Qala as a success story:
"Musa Qala was a good example of what we are planning - once the town was stabilized people were ready to appoint judges, local police chiefs, start laying on service and start putting in power lines. But the Afghan government has got to demonstrate they can deliver and alternative strategy."
The British view of Musa Qala is quite different from what really occurred in the district over the past year. In October of 2006, the British withdrew from their small outpost in the district center after negotiating with who they claimed were "tribal elders" not aligned with the Taliban. Within days, the Taliban ran up the al rayah, the black banner of the terror group, in the district center.
Continue reading "Brits Negotiate With the Taliban, Again" »
The Pakistani Taliban continues their terror campaign in the Northwest Frontier province. The latest suicide attack targeted former Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao while he conducted Eid prayers at a mosque in the town of Aftab Sherpao in the settled district of Charsadda in the Northwest Frontier Province. Sherpao survived the assassination attempt, but over 50 Pakistanis were killed and over 200 wounded in the blast. Sherpao's son and nephew were among the wounded.
This is the second attempt against Sherpao this year. The Taliban targeted Sherpao while he was addressing his political party, the Pakistan Peoples Party (Sherpao Group) on April 28. Over 28 were killed in the suicide attack and scores more wounded, including Sherpao, his son, who was a minister in the NWFP assembly, and several other lawmakers and security officials. Taliban commander Abdullah Mehsud was behind the assassination attempt. Abdullah was killed by Pakistani security forces in July.
Sherpao has been a target of the Taliban and al Qaeda due to his stand against the rise in extremism in the Northwest Frontier Province and beyond. As Interior Minister, Sherpao led one of the few institutions the consistently stood up to the Taliban and al Qaeda. He was on the forefront in warning about the rise of the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province. Sherpao was a lone voice in the Pakistani government detailing the fall of the settled districts and tribal agencies to the Taliban in 2006.
This is the fourth suicide bombing in the Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan since December 13. Twelve soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in Kohat on December 17. A suicide bomber killed five and wounded 11 in an attack on a military check post in Nowshera on December 15. Two suicide bombers killed 16, including 11 police in Quetta in Baluchistan province on December 13.
A host of attacks have also occurred throughout the Northwest Frontier Province over the past week. The largest attacks include a series of Taliban ambushes in North Waziristan which resulted in 15 soldiers killed and 38 wounded, the kidnapping of two army captains and two soldiers while traveling from Dera Ismail Khan, and the beheading of a soldier in Khar in Bajaur agency. Numerous military patrols were ambushed and bases were rocketed, while music, Internet, and computer shops were bombed up and down the Northwest Frontier Province.
The Pakistani Taliban recently united to coordinate operations inside Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. On December 14, a shura, or council, of 40 senior Taliban leaders established the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan -- the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan -- and appointed powerful South Waziristan Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud its leader. Baitullah has been directly implicated in a series of suicide attacks on military and government officials throughout the course of 2007. The Taliban declared a ceasefire for Eid but clearly are not abiding by it.
The Taliban and al Qaeda continue their relentless attacks against the Pakistani security forces. Since December 13, Taliban and al Qaeda suicide bombings and conventional attacks have claimed the lives of 43 soldiers, paramilitary soldiers, and policemen.
The numbers obtained are from open source reporting from Pakistani news outlets. The Pakistani military has proven to be unreliable with casualty numbers, and has repeatedly under reported the numbers of those killed, wounded, or captured during operations.
Twelve soldiers were killed in a suicide bombing that targeted trainees at a soccer match in Kohat on December 17. Also, the Taliban beheaded a soldier in Khar, Bajaur. Four soldiers were killed during a suicide attack at a military base in Nowshera on December 16. A suicide bomber killed eleven security personnel at a checkpoint in Quetta on December 13. Fifteen soldiers were killed and 38 wounded in a series of Taliban ambushes on military convoys in North Waziristan.
Many of these attacks are occurring inside or along the border of the Northwest Frontier Province. The Pakistani military has much of its nuclear weapons infrastructure in this region.
The Pakistani military is fighting an insurgency that is far more effective and violent than that being waged in Iraq. The Pakistani military is losing more troops in a single week than the U.S. military will lose in Iraq for the entire month, or more.
The Taliban have united under the command of Baitullah Mehsud, the able Pakistani Taliban leader from South Waziristan. Mehsud has beat off multiple military incursions into South Waziristan, most recently at Mir Ali this fall. Called the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan--the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan--this new organization unites the Taliban of the seven tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan, Khyber, Orakazi, Bajaur, Mohmand, and Kurram, as well as the settled districts of Swat, Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohistan, Buner, and the Malakand division.
U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan have killed the second senior member of Taliban commander Siraj Haqqani's powerful network. Combined Joint Task Force-82 (CJTF-82) has confirmed that Mullah Sangeen, Siraj's deputy, was killed in an unspecified raid on December 11.
"Sangeen was responsible for attacks on Afghan forces and improvised explosive device bombings," the CJTF-82 press release stated. The details and location of the raid have not been made public. CJTF-82 placed a $20,000 reward for information on his capture or death.
In late October the U.S. military singled out Siraj Haqqani and his network as a major threat in eastern Afghanistan. Siraj Haqqani, the son of the influential Taliban leader and former defense minister Jalaluddin Haqqani, was described as "one of the most influential insurgent commanders in eastern Afghanistan" who has "vied for the lead role as the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s prime antagonist."
Siraj is believed to be the new breed of Taliban leadership in Afghanistan: dangerous not only for his connections with the Afghan Taliban, but with al Qaeda's central leadership. The younger Haqqani's "extended reach brings foreign fighters from places like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, Turkey and Middle Eastern countries into Afghanistan," said Major Chris Belcher, a spokesman for CJTF-82, in October.
U.S. and Afghan forces are now actively working to dismantle the Haqqani Network, which is active in Khost, Paktia, Paktika, Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, and Kabul provinces and provides support to Taliban networks in Kunar, Nangarhar, Helmand, and Kandahar provinces. Mullah Manan, another senior member of the Haqqani Network, was killed in early Novmber.
CJTF-82 is clearly focusing on the Haqqani network and is working to cleave Siraj from his influential father, Jalaluddin. CJTF-82 is partially conducting this information operation via its press releases. Prior statements from CJTF-82 noted Siraj was usurping command of the senior Taliban leadership, including that of his father. The current press release insinuates both Mullah Manan and Sangeen were betrayed.
"That we would get two Haqqani sub-commanders so close together certainly raises an eyebrow and begins to make me wonder if Haqqani isn’t looking to get rid of those sub-commanders he doesn’t trust," Lieutenant Colonel Dave Anders, the operations officer for CJTF-82 stated. "Certainly, that’s all speculative, but it does make one wonder.”
Anders also noted that Siraj operates from across the border in Pakistan. "Siraj remains in Pakistan in relative safety and puts his subordinates in grave danger," said Anders. "It’s a different kind of leadership."
Continue reading "Siraj Haqqani's Deputy Killed in Afghanistan" »
The Pakistani military continues to underreport its casualties in the tribal areas and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. The latest misrepresentation occurred in the Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan, which, along with other tribal agencies, the government has ceded to the Taliban.
On Wednesday, the Pakistani military claimed six soldiers were killed and 20 wounded after an ambush near Mir Ali. But Dawn reports the results of the ambush and other attacks in the tribal agency resulted in 15 soldiers killed and 38 wounded. The U.S. military has yet to take such casualties during a single day of combat in Iraq.
Fifteen soldiers were killed and 38 others injured in several attacks in different areas of North Waziristan on the border of Afghanistan on Wednesday...
According to the Pakistani daily, Dawn, the government's Inter Services Public Relations said in a statement that six soldiers had been killed and 25 injured in a roadside ambush. It said militants had suffered 15 casualties in a counter-attack.
Sources said a military convoy, travelling from Miramshah to Razmak, came under intense firing by militants after it had hit an improvised explosive device in the Dosali area. The assailants reportedly used heavy machine-guns and rockets and three army trucks were damaged in the attack.
While the Pakistani military is showcasing its offensive against Maulana Fazlullah's local Taliban in Swat (which the military has failed to fully secure after nearly two months of combat operations), the military was roundly defeated in a series of intense battles in North and neighboring South Waziristan in September and October. The Taliban fought the Pakistani military to a standstill, while hundreds of Pakistani paramilitary and regular soldiers were captured and scores killed during the bloody battles.
In South Waziristan, the Pakistani government caved to the demands of Taliban chieftain Baitullah Mehsud. Twenty-five senior Taliban leaders were released, including Afghan Taliban commanders such as Mullah Obaidullah and Amir Khan Haqqani. The government also reinstated the 2005 Sara Rogha accord, which gave the Taliban legal control over the agency which they commanded militarily.
The Pakistani military may be touting its limited success against the B team of Fazlullah's Taliban in Swat, but the A teams in Bajuar, North and South Waziristan, and throughout the tribal agencies and several settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province remain unchallenged.
Michael brings up some excellent points about the problems with the Afghanistan campaign. The lack of unity in the military command and the absence of a central political force to direct a coherent counterinsurgency campaign harm our efforts. These problems are compounded by a major shortage of troops and the fact that many of the nations that contribute soldiers restrict their activities via "caveats."
NATO was created to deter, and if needed, fight a conventional conflict against the Soviet Union on the plains of central Europe. NATO was not conceived with the idea of fighting a protracted, low intensity campaign in the backwaters of central Asia. While coalition warfare can provide domestic and international political cover to fight protracted and unpopular conflicts, it severely restricts any individual nation's efforts to fight a counterinsurgency campaign.
Afghanistan provides a series of challenges that make the problems of Iraq seem simple. Afghanistan is landlocked, with Iran, Pakistan, and the 'Stans of the former Soviet Union hemming it in. Logistical support to Coalition forces in Afghanistan requires the West to over rely on Pakistan, which, like it or not, is one of our prime allies in the Afghan war.
Yet significant support flows from both Iran and Pakistan to the Taliban and al Qaeda. Iran has supplied weapons, aid, and training, according to military officials. The Taliban has the ability to recruit, train, arm, rest, and refit in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan. It is unclear that the perfect counterinsurgency campaign could significantly decrease the problems in Afghanistan. A significant percentage of the Taliban insurgency is based out of Pakistan.
Michael succinctly makes a point I've made repeatedly when discussing the situation in Afghanistan. "The situation in Afghanistan is not critical--there is no sign that the effort there is on the verge of some kind of collapse--but in a counterinsurgency campaign, if you're not winning, you're losing. And we are not winning."
In the past I've stated that Afghanistan is doomed to a sort of impasse--but not wholly because of failures in our counterinsurgency campaign. Until some meaningful progress is made to rout the Taliban and al Qaeda in the northwest and southern regions of Pakistan, Afghanistan will remain mired in fighting, no matter how good our counterinsurgency strategy is.
We should work to create a unified political command in Afghanistan, eliminate the harmful caveats, and improve our counterinsurgency strategy. But we must also seek a realistic solution to deal with the rising tide of Taliban and al Qaeda across the border in Pakistan.
| | Pakistani Air Force bases, including the nuclear sites of Kamra and Sargodha.
Click to view. |
Yesterday's suicide bombing at the Kamra Air Force Base in Punjab was not the first strike at a nuclear weapons storage facility. After a closer look at the bases struck inside Pakistan since August, at least two others occurred either on or near nuclear weapons storage facilities, based on open source information on Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs. Since August 2007, there have been two suicide attacks at or near the Sargodha Air Force Base, a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab province. Other attacks in Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province may be aimed at facilities providing regional security for Pakistan's nuclear program.
On August 2, Pakistani police prevented a suicide bomber from attacking a parade at a police training facility in the city of Sargodha in eastern Punjab province. Police shot and killed the suicide bomber after he climbed the wall of the police academy, fired on a security detail, and ran towards the parade grounds where over 900 recruits were assembled. One police officer was killed and another wounded in the exchange.
On November 1, a suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into a bus carrying military and intelligence officers at the air base in Sargodha. Eight were killed and 27 wounded in the strike.
The Sargodha Air Force Base serves as the "headquarters of the Pakistan Air Force's Central Air Command and home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft, and Hatf-III/Ghaznavi/M-11 ballistic missiles," NTI reports. "Analysts believe that the F-16s have been most likely modified for nuclear delivery. Some analysts believe that components or partially assembled air-deliverable nuclear devices might be stored at an ammunition depot at the Sargodha air base."
The Sargodha Air Force Base also houses "Pakistan's nuclear-capable, short-range, solid-fueled Hatf III/Ghaznavi/M-11 (total number estimated at 34-80) ballistic missiles," which are thought to be stored "at facilities near the Central Ammunition Depot on Kirana Hills at Sargodha. The evidence captured on US satellite imagery includes missile crates; storage sheds for transporter-erector launch vehicles; missile maintenance facilities; and housing for missile crews."
The Taliban and al Qaeda have hit several military and police bases near Pakistani nuclear facilities in northern Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province over the past year. A suicide bomber killed 45 army recruits as they trained outside the military base in Dargai in the Northwest Frontier Province in November 2006. The Dargai base “serves as the headquarters of a Pakistan's army corps," the New York Times reported. "Mechanized infantry, armor and artillery are stationed in the garrison."
Continue reading "Al Qaeda, Taliban targeting Pakistani nuclear sites" »
As the Pakistani military continues the slow push to regain control of the settled district of Swat, suicide bombers struck in two locations, one of which was a sensitive weapons facility near Islamabad. The most deadly attack occurred in Swat in the Northwest Frontier Province after a suicide bomber hit a police checkpoint near Matta, where the Pakistani Army just established a presence. Ten were killed, including two children and three police.
But the attack at a Pakistani Air Force base in Kamra, while only injuring seven, has far more serious implications. The Kamra complex is a likely location for Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. The suicide bomber targeted a bus filled with 35 children of Pakistani Air Force officers. The driver, a conductor, and five children were wounded in the strike.
Global Security notes the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra is one of the Air Force sites likely associated with Pakistan's nuclear weapons development.
The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex consists of three nearby armament facilities in Wah (Pakistan Ordnance Factories - POF), Kamra (Air Weapon Complex - AWC), and Taxilia (Heavy Industries Taxila -HIT). One or more of these facilities is probably associated with the weaponization of Pakistan's nuclear devices. According to some reports, the main storage and maintenance site of the Pakistani nuclear weapons, particularly the weapons at a 'screwdriver level', is located at the 'ordnance complex' in Wah...
The Air Weapon Complex at Kamra is devoted to air-to-surface munitions, among other activities, and would probably have at least some connection with the development of air-delivered nuclear weapons... The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) was almost certainly responsible for the modification of Pakistani aircraft, probably including F-16 fighters, to a configuration capable of delivering air-dropped nuclear weapons.
It is unclear if the suicide attack was a target of opportunity or a demonstration of the groups' capacity to penetrate security at sensitive locations. Taliban and al Qaeda suicide bombers have targeted secure military facilities over the past year.
On November 1 a suicide bomber killed eight at a Pakistani airbase in Sargodha in the province of Punjab. Two days prior, an al Qaeda suicide bomber killed eight in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. A pair of suicide bombing in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi on September 4th killed 25 and wounded 68. Pakistani military and intelligence officers were the direct target of twin bombings. A series of other attacks targeted military, intelligence, and police targets throughout the country as the Taliban and al Qaeda attempted to gain control of the Northwest Frontier Province and beyond.
The largest suicide attack so far targeted former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Karachi on the day she returned from exile. The sophisticated, multi-pronged ambush included suicide bombers, roadside bombers, and snipers. Over 136 were killed and more than 500 wounded. The Taliban and al Qaeda also conducted suicide attacks against Prime Minister Aziz and Interior Minister Sherpao. The Taliban also attempted to shoot down President Musharraf's airplane as he departed the airport in Rawalpindi. Musharraf has been the target of several assassination attempts since 2003.
In July, al Qaeda spokesman Abu Yahya al Libi called for the Pakistani people and the military to rise up against the Musharraf regime. Al Libi was later reinforced by both al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his second in command Ayman al Zawahiri. Al Qaeda is clearly looking to overthrow President Musharraf, with the ultimate prize being the state of Pakistan and its nuclear weapons stocks.
Last Friday, U.S., British, and Afghani forces started chipping away at the new Taliban stronghold of Musa Qala (see Bill Roggio's coverage here). The battle has turned into a real bar fight, though--after a three days of intense combat--it's looking like the bad guys are starting to knuckle under.
THOUSANDS of NATO and Afghan troops were last night engaged in "fierce fighting" to take the last remaining major town controlled by the Taleban in Afghanistan.
The three-pronged attack on Musa Qala, a key strategic town in the heart of Helmand province's poppy belt, is the biggest UK operation in Afghanistan since 2001 with about 2,000 British troops involved, including elements of the Scots Guards.
A battalion of US airborne infantry, a Danish battlegroup, Estonian and Afghan troops were also taking part, under the command of Scots Brigadier Andrew Mackay.
The NATO-Afghan forces have encircled Musa Qala which has been turned into a fortress by Taleban fighters who have been digging in to resist the expected assault since they took control in February.
A network of trenches, landmines, machinegun nests and sniper positions has been created in the town, which has been used by al-Qaeda terrorists and other foreign fighters as a base to launch suicide attacks and ambushes on international forces.
Dozens of Taleban were reported to have been killed as the American 82nd Airborne Division pushed into the town.
The British forces spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Richard Eaton said: "This is a deliberate defence. The Americans encountered small-arms and rifle fire from prepared positions."
He added the operation would carry on after nightfall, saying: "We own the night. We will continue to advance."
Danish, Estonian, and Afghani troops, all fighting under the banner of the Scots Guards. Strange little war, Afghanistan.
And although this sounds messy:
A network of trenches, landmines, machinegun nests and sniper positions has been created in the town, which has been used by al-Qaeda terrorists and other foreign fighters as a base to launch suicide attacks and ambushes on international forces.
. . . the wisdom of George S. Patton rings eternal: "Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man. . . . "
That's particularly true when precision guided munitions are part of the equation.
The Taliban have abandoned their former stronghold of Musa Qala in northern Helmand province. Despite boasts of over 2,000 fighters in the ranks and claims the "it will be very easy for us to resist the attack," the Taliban chose to bug out. A Taliban spokesman claimed they fled to protect the residents of Musa Qala, while a resident of the town said they pulled out in an organized fashion.
A Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousef Ahmadi, said the insurgents made a strategic decision to flee Musa Qala to avoid further destruction to the town.
"Because of the massive bombings this morning, the Taliban didn't want to cause more casualties, so this afternoon all the Taliban left Musa Qala,'' Ahmadi told The Associated Press by satellite phone.
A resident of Musa Qala, Haji Mohammad Rauf, said he saw Taliban fighters leave the town in trucks and motorbikes around noon. Two hours later, hundreds of Afghan soldiers streamed into town and establish security checkpoints, he said.
"I was standing on my roof and saw hundreds of Afghan soldiers drive into town," Rauf said. "All the shops are closed and families are staying inside their homes."
The Taliban have repeatedly been beaten in open combat when fighting Afghan and NATO forces. Arrayed against the Taliban in Musa Qala was an Afghan Army brigade, a battalion of U.S. soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division, elements from the British 40 Commando Royal Marines Regiment, the 2nd Battalion of the Yorkshire Regiment, the Scots Guards, and Danish forces.
Fighting has been reported to be ongoing at the outskirts | | | |
