Yesterday’s hijacking of the U.S. owned and manned cargo ship in the Indian Ocean has created quite a stir. Somali pirates overtook the ship and its crew of 20 Americans about 400 miles off the coast of Somalia. The crew regained control of the ship, although the ship's captain is being held by the pirates after they reneged on an agreement to exchange him for three of their own captured by the crew.

A U.S. Navy warship is en route to the scene of the hijacking, and then things may really get interesting. The U.S. may attempt to free the captain if negotiations fail as we’re not big on paying ransoms like most European countries. The pirates are currently holding the captain on a lifeboat which is thought to have run out of fuel.

Today’s hijacking is not an isolated incident. Piracy has been rampant off of the East African coast for years. But pirates have stepped up their activities the past several weeks. And in just the past four days, seven international ships have been hijacked in the region.

Over at the U.S. Naval Institute blog, Eagle1 offers a solution to reduce piracy in the region: establish convoys for ships moving off the coast of East Africa, flood the main sea lanes with surveillance, and try to discern the patterns of the pirates. “[I]f you aren’t going to invade Somalia to take out pirate havens, you don’t really have a lot of other options,” he says. The U.S. and Europe don’t seem to have the stomach to hit the well known pirate bases in Eyl and other locations. The other option is to continue to pay the pirates, who are raking in hundreds of millions a year.

The Indian government issued a diplomatic protest to Pakistan yesterday, requesting that Pakistan turn over about 20 senior terrorists in response to last week's attacks in Mumbai. At the top the list are Laskhar-e-Taiba leader Hafiz Saeed, Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Maulana Masood Azhar, and mafia and terror kingpin Dawood Ibrahim.

As noted yesterday, getting the Pakistanis to turn over Saeed and other members of the well-established terror infrastructure inside the country will be nearly impossible. The Laskhar-e-Taiba is a state within a state; it has its hooks set deeply in elements of the Pakistani military and the Inter-Service Intelligence Agency. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Laskhar-e-Taiba is more than a militia. It offers services such as education and healthcare not provided by the state.

The Pakistanis, knowing that turning over Saeed and others to the hated Indians would lead to unbearable internal political strife, now fear the Indians may conduct cross-border strikes into Pakistan. According to Pakistani intelligence, Lashkar-e-Taiba's sprawling Muridke complex is at the top of the list:

The Indian military establishment is trying to convince the decision-makers in the Congress government that an aerial attack on Muridke headquarters could be justified on the basis of the pattern of the ongoing drone attacks being carried out inside the Pakistani territory by Afghanistan-based US forces, which are targeting al-Qaeda and Taliban hideouts.

Pakistani sources say the Indian political leadership is being pursued by the military establishment to declare Muridke headquarters of the Jamaat-ul-Dawah as an enemy hideout [of the Lashkar-e-Taiba militants] before targeting it.

The U.S. government is going to have a hard time convincing the Indians not to act, particularly with the ongoing covert U.S. air campaign in Pakistan's tribal areas. The Indian government will be under internal political pressure to respond to the Mumbai attacks, particularly if Pakistan fails to turn over Saeed, Azhar, Dawood, and the others. The real challenge in the short term will be how to keep Pakistan and India from coming to blows, sparking a war between two nuclear powers.

Thomas Friedman spends the first half of his column today expressing his heartfelt wish that ordinary Pakistanis will take to the streets in solidarity with the victims of the Mumbai Massacre.

And he asks a fair question: "When Pakistanis and other Muslims are willing to take to the streets, even suffer death, to protest an insulting cartoon published in Denmark, is it fair to ask: Who in the Muslim world, who in Pakistan, is ready to take to the streets to protest the mass murders of real people, not cartoon characters, right next door in Mumbai?"

But then - inexplicably - Friedman gives his reason for why, in case we've forgotten, he is "still hoping - just once - for that mass demonstration of 'ordinary people' against the Mumbai bombers, not for my sake, not for India’s sake, but for Pakistan’s sake." That reason? "Because it takes a village."

Let me know if you agreed with the rest of the column. I couldn't read on after that.

Beyond the possibility of a war breaking out between India and Pakistan over the Mumbai terror siege, how might this event impact the security situation in South Asia? The short answer is the security situation in Pakistan’s northwest could spiral out of control, impacting NATO’s ability to resupply its forces in Afghanistan.

There were already rumblings that the Pakistani military may redeploy some or all of the 100,000 soldiers in the insurgency-wracked Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The Pakistani army is outnumbered on its eastern border with India, and with the talk that the attack was launched from Pakistan, the military wants to reinforce its eastern front. The Pakistani military already maintains a tenuous foothold in the Taliban-dominated northwest; any movement of forces could tip the scales to the Taliban.

Even if the military doesn’t leave the northwest, they are going to look to put an end to the fighting and reconcile with the Taliban. First, the military doesn’t need the potential problem of a two-front war. Second, the military views the Pashtun tribesmen as “strategic depth” against the Indians.

We are already seeing evidence that the military wants to cool down its Taliban front. This weekend, the Pashtun tribes throughout the northwest have told the government they would back the nation in event of war with India. A tribal council in North Waziristan said that more than three million tribesmen could fight on the Indian front.

A senior Pakistani military officer responded by calling Taliban chieftains Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Fazlullah “patriots” and the conflict was due to “misunderstandings.” Baitullah Mehsud is the head of the Pakistani Taliban and a warlord in South Waziristan. Baitullah has defeated the Pakistani military in multiple battles the past several years. Fazlullah is the head of the Taliban in Swat, where the government has been fighting to regain control of the region for over a year.

Negotiations with the Taliban may be next. The past round led to the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the expansion of al Qaeda safe havens in the Pakistani northwest. This round could serve to strangle NATO’s vital supply line, most of which moves the Peshawar and Khyber in the northwest.

India’s foreign minister called the Pakistani ambassador to the foreign ministry to deliver the Indian government’s demands in the wake of the Mumbai terror attack. “He was informed that the recent terrorist attack on Mumbai was carried out by elements from Pakistan,” Reuters reported, based on a foreign ministry statement. “Government expects that strong action would be taken against those elements, whosoever they may be, responsible for this outrage."

It is unclear if any individuals or organizations within Pakistan have been singled out. So far, unconfirmed reports indicate the Lashkar-e-Taiba conducted the attack with the backing of the notorious Dawood Ibrahim criminal enterprise as well as elements within Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence agency and the Pakistani Navy.

In the past, Pakistan has responded to Indian recriminations over terror attacks launched from Pakistani soil by making half-hearted gestures. Pakistani security forces would arrest Hafiz Saeed, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and other usual suspects, only to quietly release them.

If the Pakistani government is to seriously deal with this problem, first it will need to dismantle the Lashkar-e-Taiba Muridke complex near Lahore and the forward headquarters in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Saeed and a host of other Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders operate openly in Pakistan. Have them arrested, and keep them in jail for good.

But the Lashkar-e-Taiba is a strategic asset to Pakistan’s military and the ISI. Like the Taliban, many see the Lashkar-e-Taiba as "patriots." Don’t expect the Lashkar-e-Taiba to go down without a fight from elements within the military and intelligence services. And for this reason, don’t expect it to happen any time soon.

Discharge your weapon like this...

Five hostages and two terrorists were killed in the Indian commando raid on Chabad House. That's a losing score by anyone's tally. My guess is that the Mumbai attacks will affect the Indians in the same way that it affected the Germans after Munich. The Germans, embarrassed by their commandos' performance during the '72 hostage crisis, stood up the GSG-9 in 1973 to prevent future tactical mismanagement. Thirty some years later, Deutsche counter-terror operators are ranked amongst the best in the world. India, which borders several exporters of terrorism, would be wise to follow suit.

The Israelis, who are widely considered to be top-dog when it comes to counter-terror ops, were swift to condemn the Indian Army's performance:

"In hostage situations, the first thing the forces are supposed to do is assemble at the scene and begin collecting intelligence," said a former official in the Shin Bet's security unit. "In this case, it appears that the forces showed up at the scene and immediately began exchanging fire with the terrorists instead of first taking control of the area."

In fairness to the Indians, the Mumbai attacks were a brand-new style of terrorism -- in that the attackers merged the principles of commando-style raids with that of a classic hostage crisis. That's precisely the type of soft-target terror that keeps most of our own intelligence officials awake at night. Pray that it never hits America's shores.

Hat Tip: Seraphic Secret

There is a lot of talk about Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group that is strongly suspected of being behind last week's terror assault in Mumbai, India. Below is a quick primer on Lashkar-e-Taiba I've excerpted from an update on the situation in Mumbai I wrote yesterday. There is far more to the terror group than this, but it should help explain the relationship between what is called "al Qaeda Central" and their affiliated groups. There are a lot of people out there twisting themselves in knots to disassociate  Lashkar-e-Taiba from al Qaeda. They are wrong to do so.

Lashkar-e-Taiba has an extensive network in southern and Southeast Asia. A senior US military intelligence official described the group as "al Qaeda junior," as it has vast resources, an extensive network, and is able to carry out complex attacks throughout its area of operations. "If by some stroke of luck al Qaeda collapsed, LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) could step in and essentially take its place."The relationship between al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba is complex, the official noted. "While Lashkar-e-Taiba is definitely subordinate to al Qaeda in many ways, it runs its own network and has its own command structure. The groups often train in each others' camps, and fight side by side in Afghanistan."

Lashkar-e-Taiba forces fought alongside al Qaeda and Taliban in the assault on the US combat outpost in Wanat in Nuristan province, Afghanistan in July of this year. Nine US troops were killed, and 15 US soldiers and four Afghan troops were wounded in the heavy fight that nearly ended in the outpost being overrun. US forces ultimately broke the attack.Founded by Hafiz Mohammed Saeed in Afghanistan in 1990, the organization quickly expanded its reach.

The Lashkar-e-Taiba has received direct support by Pakistan's notorious Inter-Service Intelligence agency as they serve to destabilize India and wage war in Indian-occupied Kashmir.Like al Qaeda, the Lashkar-e-Taiba seeks to establish a Muslim caliphate in southern and central Asia. Lashkar-e-Taiba "consistently advocated the use of force and vowed that it would plant the 'flag of Islam' in Washington, Tel Aviv and New Delhi," the Southeast Asia Terrorism Portal reported.

Also, like al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba practices Wahabism, the radical Islamist school of thought born in Saudi Arabia.The group essentially runs a state within a state of Pakistan. The sprawling Muridke complex houses "a Madrassa (seminary), a hospital, a market, a large residential area for ‘scholars’ and faculty members, a fish farm and agricultural tracts. The LeT also reportedly operates 16 Islamic institutions, 135 secondary schools, an ambulance service, mobile clinics, blood banks and several seminaries across Pakistan."

The terror assault on Mumbai is in its second day as Indian security forces struggle to regain control of the city and clear the remaining terrorists from two hotels and a residential complex. Hundreds of Indian Naval and National Security Guards commandos have been rushed into the capital to help end the hostage situations at the Taj and Oberoi Trident hotels and the Nariman House. Reports from India indicate the commando assaults are underway. More than 200 hostages, many foreigners, are still held captive. The Indian Mujahideen have demanded the release of all jihadis currently in Indian jails to end the crisis.

While it is too early to know exactly how the Mumbai strikes were planned and executed, one thing seems clear: This attack is the most significant terrorist attack since the Sept. 11 attack against the United States.

The terrorists launched a sophisticated, multi-pronged attack into a city of 18 million residents. This requires planning, training, funding, and detailed reconnaissance. The targets were chosen carefully to achieve maximum effect. The terrorists hit hotels, a train station, a movie house, a residential complex, and a hospital--all soft targets. They also were able to plant bombs in taxis as well as capture a police van, which was then used in a drive-by shooting spree.

The assault teams--there is no other way to describe them--coordinated and synchronized their attacks to overwhelm Mumbai security. The terrorists were able to take a significant number of hostages. They knew where to find foreigners and wealthy Indians--at the five star hotels.

Past attacks in Indian cities and in other parts of the world may have had higher death tolls, but they failed to achieve the results of Mumbai. The city has been completely shut down for two days, while the Hindustan Times said the country is gripped by a "fear psychosis." India's government has long treated the terrorist problem as a secondary issue. This will change. The mode of attack--assault teams launched into the heart of a major city--is already sending chills down the spines of security officials and governments throughout the world.

Last week's fighting between the U.S. military and the Taliban, which spilled over from Afghanistan's Kunar province into Pakistan's Mohmand tribal agency, has sparked a diplomatic mess. Pakistan maintains the United States targeted an outpost of the paramilitary Frontier Corps, killing 11. The government called the strike "cowardly." The U.S. military released UAV footage from the fighting that showed engagements with Taliban fighters in the open.

Days later, General Dan McNeill, the outgoing U.S. commander in Afghanistan, questioned the effectiveness and loyalty of Pakistani troops. McNeill said attacks in Afghanistan's eastern regions have increased 50 percent since the peace agreements were initiated by the Pakistani government with the Taliban in April.

Then, Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai threatened to attack Baitullah Mehsud inside Pakistan. "When they cross the territory from Pakistan to come and kill Afghans and kill coalition troops, it exactly gives us the right to go back and do the same," Karzai said.

Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani warned Afghanistan not to interfere inside the tribal areas. The Pakistani Taliban weighed in, and threatened to boost attacks inside Afghanistan.

The past week merely serves to highlight the deteriorating situation in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province. The Pakistani government, unwilling to fight the needed counterinsurgency operation in the tribal areas, believes it can negotiate with the Taliban. The U.S. military and the Afghan government, increasingly frustrated by the Taliban havens in Pakistan, are pursuing the Taliban across the border and ratcheting up the rhetoric. Meanwhile, the Taliban benefits by creating fissures between the United States, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

In February, many commentators lauded the elections in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)--in which the region’s religious parties were swept out of power in favor of secular-minded parties--as a major victory in the war on terror. Others warned at the time that the significance of the election results was being overstated. Developments in the past couple of months have shown that much of the celebratory commentary was indeed overly optimistic.

Examples of unqualified optimism following the NWFP elections abound. Shahfat Mahmood, a Pakistani politician, told Voice of America: "What it means for the NWFP is people can look forward to a rollback of Talibanization, people can look forward to a more focused, concerted approach of the government to battling terrorism." Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation wrote in the Washington Times that "[p]erhaps the most important outcome" of Pakistan’s elections "was the victory of a secular Pashtun party in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) over religious parties sympathetic to the Taliban." And former NWFP government official Mahmood Shah told McClatchy Newspapers that officials there would now "become more willing to cooperate with Afghanistan in suppressing Islamic militants."

In early March, I warned in the Middle East Times that the implications of the elections for terrorism in the NWFP were being overstated:

[T]here is reason to question whether the significance of the results is being overstated…. First, there is already concern in Washington about the approach the winning parties are planning to adopt vis-à-vis the Taliban. Farhana Ali, an associate international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation who recently returned from a 10-day trip to Pakistan, told me that many Pakistanis are fatigued by this war. "They see it as America’s war," she said, "but there is a new strand of thought emerging that the Pakistanis need to choose their own strategies." One such strategy that worries many Washington analysts is the new coalition’s willingness to negotiate with the Taliban. The RAND Corporation’s Seth Jones told me, "There is a strong desire among even the secular parties to engage in dialogue with militant groups. From a strategic perspective, I don’t see this as a major win for the United States."

Jones was correct. Immediately after taking office, the NWFP government began negotiations with the Taliban even though past agreements with Pakistan’s militants (such as the infamous Waziristan accords) had failed. Contrary to the cheery prediction of "a rollback of Talibanization," Pakistan’s Daily Times reports that the NWFP government has actually cooperated with the militant Tehreek-e-Taliban group led by Baitullah Mehsud in the implementation of sharia law in the NWFP’s Malakand division. This was one of the Taliban’s demands in its talks with the NWFP government: as one Taliban representative told the Daily Times, the group "demanded implementation of Shariah law, the army’s withdrawal from Swat, the release of all Taliban prisoners without pre-conditions and compensation for damages to civilians during military operations in Swat."

The new Pakistani government has wasted no time in kicking off negotiations with the Taliban. Just two months after taking office, the government has cut a deal with a radical Taliban group in the Malakand Division of the Northwest Frontier Province. This Monday, a peace deal was struck with the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law, a group that sent more than 10,000 fighters to attack U.S. troops during the opening phase of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001 and 2002. The government, which had declared this Taliban group illegal, has openly negotiated with it and freed its leader, Sufi Mohmammed, who was captured while attempting to lead fighters into Afghanistan to attack U.S. forces.

Yesterday, the government announced it was negotiating with none other than Baitullah Mehsud, the man behind the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Baitullah has also led a suicide and military campaign against the military and government over the past two years. Al Qaeda’s senior leadership is believed to shelter in South Waziristan, where Baitullah rules. Al Qaeda maintains terror camps in the region.

The US State Department has weighed in on the negotiations. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said the department is "supportive"" of the negotiations. "You have to talk to people," said Boucher. "The Pakistani government is engaged in discussion designed to stop violence. It's got to be done in a way that produces results, that reduces violence."

The Pakistani government cut similar deals with the Taliban in North and South Waziristan in 2006 and in Bajaur, Mohmand, and Swat in 2007. The Taliban consolidated control in these regions and expanded their power base into many settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province. The Taliban never lived up to the terms of the agreements, instead they established Islamic emirates, enforced sharia law, and used their new safe havens to strike inside Pakistan and at Afghanistan, India, and the West.

The Maoist-controlled assembly in Nepal intends to dethrone King Gyanendra if he will not step down "gracefully." Grace is not a trait one generally associates with Maoist party members let alone the Nepalese royal family. Do recall King Gyanendra ascended to the throne after the Crown Prince of Nepal killed his entire family, and then committed suicide. Unlike your garden variety monarch, King Gyanendra is considered a living God—an incarnation of Vishnu, to be precise. Like all living Gods, he was educated at Eton where boyhood friends described him as "moody." Well, heaven no doubt awaits this moody, living God. If he can get out of his country alive, it will just take the slightly less literal form of winters in Gstaad and summers in the French Riviera. Poor God.

The "habit" being the Indian Armed Forces' addiction to Russian military gear. I'd love to see the West drive a wedge between India and the Russia-China defense partnership, this seems to be a start:

India is likely to make a formal announcement on the awarding of a one-billion dollar contract to Lockheed Martin for six Hercules transport planes in the biggest military aircraft deal with the U.S. in five decades, defense officials said.

U.S.-based Lockheed is also in the race for a 10-billion dollar contract to sell 126 fighter jets to the Indian air force and the tenders will be handed out next month.

India is also in talks with BAE Systems for 40 Hawk trainer jets worth 872 million dollars in addition to 66 aircraft it purchased for 1.45 billion dollars in 2004 from the British company.

India may also announce a two-billion-dollar contract with U.S.-based Boeing for eight long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft during the event besides forging several tie-ups between the Indian private sector and global companies.

Russia is still learning the ins-and-outs of capitalism, in that it appears that some of the most obvious rules of the free market still escape them. Rule No. 1: if you push an inferior product, customers will look elsewhere.

Red agencies/ districts controlled by the Taliban; purple is defacto control; yellow is under threat

Pakistan has finally admitted what many of us have been saying for years: the country is fighting a counterinsurgency campaign on its own soil. The Musharraf government recognizes “that they had a growing issue in FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Agency] that could be described correctly as an insurgency and they seem now to be cueing up to take it on,” said General Dan McNeill, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, after a recent meeting with Musharraf and Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai. “I think they also know that they need a maximum adjustment in their force perhaps in training and equipping to be able to prosecute this fight the right way.”

That Musharraf is finally able to admit he is fighting a counterinsurgency campaign in the tribal areas is a good start, but the truth is the Taliban has branched out far beyond that area and into the greater Northwest Frontier Province. Peshawar, the provincial capital, has been buffeted by suicide attacks and a host of Taliban inspired violence and intimidation since late 2006. The Taliban have been active in Tank, Khyber, and Peshawar since early 2006. A government report stated that settled districts of Bannu, Lakki Marwat, and Swat were falling into a state of "Talibanisation, lawlessness and terrorism" in April 2007.

The Taliban overran Swat and Shangla in the fall of 2007 after signing a peace accord in the spring, and the Pakistani military has been waging intense battles since late November to dislodge the terrorists. Just yesterday in Bannu, "militants" took more than 250 children hostage. A Beslan-like situation was narrowly averted when a tribal committee stepped forward and secured free passage for the terrorists. The military recently fought a pitched three-day battle with the Taliban in Darra Adam Khel and Kohat, where the Taliban took over a tunnel on the Indus Highway.

This list is hardly comprehensive. Fighting is ongoing in Swat, Orakzai, and South Waziristan. Bajaur remains an al Qaeda command and control center. And the government is looking to cut yet another "peace accord" with the Taliban in North Waziristan. So while the Pakistani government is just now coming to terms with the insurgency in the tribal areas, the problem has already extended far beyond that. Until the government becomes serious about waging an intensive counterinsurgency campaign, the problem will only continue to grow.

In what can be best described as an opinion piece published on its website, CJTF-82, the U.S. military command for eastern Afghanistan, has taken Dutch politician and filmmaker Geert Wilders to task for announcing the production of a short film on the Koran. CJTF-82 begins its piece, provocatively titled "Stirring the Hate," by questioning Wilder's motivations:

Ostensibly an exercise in the Party for Freedom’s right to free speech, Dutch politician Geert Wilders prepares to release a new anti-Islam film. Wilders will not comment on details of the movie but says it will show that Islam’s Holy Book, the Quran "is an inspiration for intolerance, murder and terror".

Wilders close political association with Ayaan Hirsi Ali and film maker Theo Van Gogh, sent Wilders into hiding after Van Gogh’s assassination by a Muslim extremist following the release of “Submission”, a film which criticized the treatment of women in Islamic society. The publication of the “Muhammad Cartoons” in September of 2005 caused protests and riots as over 200 people were killed by violence around the world. In Afghanistan there were protests in Maymana, Bagram, Kandahar, Mehtar-Lam and Kabul Violence in neighboring Pakistan was even worse. Wilders website was one of several that re-published the cartoons after the initial violent demonstrations had begun, citing a defense of freedom of speech and igniting further violence. Polls immediately following the Van Gogh assassination predicted the possibility of the Party for Freedom winning as many as 29 seats (of 150) in upcoming Dutch parliamentary elections. By October of 2005 the number had slipped to one, rising again to three following the “Muhammad Cartoons” controversy. While his party does favor immigration restrictions, especially from non-western countries; the corresponding surge in popularity provides a suspicious motive for his latest “exercise in free speech.” resulting in at least 5 deaths.

Leaving aside Wilders's motivation for making the film, one wonders why CJTF-82 posted this article on its website in the first place. Should CJTF-82, which is engaged in the fight in Afghanistan, be injecting itself into a debate over free speech in Holland, an allied nation with troops currently deployed in Afghanistan? Is it appropriate for the U.S. military to criticize the actions of a leader of a foreign political party? And has CJTF-82 officially determined that Wilders is responsible for "igniting further violence" by publishing the Muhammad cartoons?

We suspect the answers are no, no, and no. Fewer movie reviews and more like this, please.

Click image to view the slideshow of the Taliban Leadership in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Taliban Leadership presentation looks at the major players in the Taliban movement in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban movement spans the Pashtun tribal areas from western Pakistan to eastern and southern Afghanistan. Taliban leaders in Pakistan, such as Baitullah Mehsud, have sworn fealty to Mullah Omar and provide active support for attacks against NATO and Afghan security forces. Many of the Taliban leaders are closely associated with al Qaeda's Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, or other al Qaeda leaders.

Note: Bajaur's Taliban leaders, Sufi Mohammed and Faqir Mohammed of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM - the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law), are not pictured as images of these men are not available. The presentation will be updated if photos become available.

The mystery of the dismissal of two European diplomats from Afghanistan appears to have been solved. The Times of London reports the UN and European Union diplomats were expelled by the Afghan government for negotiating with none other than Mullah Mansoor Dadullah, the Taliban's southern commander.

They held secret meetings with Mansoor Dadullah--a thorn in the side of British military in Helmand province--to try to persuade him to break with the Taliban and form his own political party and militia, according to Afghan government sources.

If they had succeeded it would have been a coup for the western allies shoring up the government of Hamid Karzai in Kabul. Instead, Mervyn Patterson, a high-ranking UN official, and Michael Semple, the acting head of the EU mission to Afghanistan, were expelled after an Afghan national “confessed” to Afghan intelligence that he had accompanied the two to a secret meeting with Dadullah in Musa Qala.

The choice of Mansoor Dadullah as a potential candidate to be split for the Taliban was a poor one. Mansoor follows in the footsteps of his brother, Mullah Dadullah Ahkund, a legendary and brutal Taliban commander who was killed by British forces. Mansoor has continued his brother's legacy, and conducted vicious attacks against NATO and Afghan forces. Dadullah has ordered the suicide campaign to continue against military and civilian targets.

Back in December a report in This is London, a British newspaper, indicated the British government believes the Taliban is made up of a small core of ideological zealots, no more than several hundred leaders, with the rest of the organization being comprised of foot soldiers.

This poor assessment of the nature of the Taliban led to negotiations with the likes of Mansoor Dadullah. There was no chance Mansoor could be bought off to turn on Mullah Omar and the Taliban movement in Afghanistan, as he and his fighters are committed to the Taliban cause.

On the bright side, negotiations with Mansoor led to his dismissal by Mullah Omar.

Osama bin Laden escorted by the Black Guard. Click image to view.

A senior al Qaeda commander has been reported to have been captured in the Pakistani city of Lahore, according to a Pakistani newspaper. Dr. Amin al Haq, the security coordinator of Osama bin Laden’s Black Guard, “was apprehended from Lahore couple of days back,” the Nation reported, citing “credible Afghan sources.” Al Haq is said to be “under interrogation” at an undisclosed location.

The report of al Haq’s capture has not been confirmed, according to a senior intelligence official. U.S. intelligence agencies are aware of the report.

Al Haq has a long pedigree with both the Taliban and al Qaeda. He was born in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province, was educated as a doctor, and practiced medicine in Pakistan. “He was associated with Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan headed by late Maulvi Younas Khalis, which joined the Taliban Movement in 1996,” the Nation reported. He “was also part of the Afghan delegation flown to Sudan in 1996 to bring Osama bin Laden to Afghanistan.”

On December 19, 2000, al Haq was identified as a senior member of al Qaeda per United Nations resolution 1267. He accompanied Osama bin Laden during the 2001 battle at Tora Bora in Nangarhar province, and helped senior al Qaeda leaders escape the U.S. and Afghan militia assault on the cave complex. During renewed fighting at Tora Bora in the summer of 2007, al Haq was reported to have been wounded and fled across the border into Pakistan's Kurram tribal agency.

As security coordinator for the Black Guard, it is believed al Haq would be in close proximity to Osama bin Laden. U.S. intelligence believes Osama bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan’s tribal agencies, a claim the Pakistani government has denied. Many of the senior al Qaeda leader captured in Pakistan since September 11, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Musab al-Suri, have been detained in Pakistan’s major cities.

Several senior al Qaeda leaders--such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Saif al Adel, and Walid bin Attash--rose through the ranks in al Qaeda by serving in the Black Guard. A Special Forces raid against the Black Guard camp in Danda Saidgai in North Waziristan, Pakistan, in March 2006 resulted in the death of Imam Asad and several dozen members of the Black Guard. Asad was the camp commander, a senior Chechen al Qaeda commander, and associate of Shamil Basayev, the Chechen al Qaeda leader killed by Russian security forces in July 2006.

Fighting between the Taliban and the Pakistani military has been reported in the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan and the settled district of Swat. In South Waziristan, the military is attacking Baitullah Mehsud's Taliban after the kidnapping of four soldiers, while in Swat, the army continues its slow advance through the former vacation spot.

Forces from Baitullah Mehsud's Taliban kidnapped four paramilitary soldiers in the town of Makeen on New Years Day, which has sparked the recent round of fighting in the Taliban sanctuary. The Pakistani military immediate launched artillery and helicopter gunship assaults on Taliban positions in the town of Makeen after their soldiers were captured, and claimed to have killed 25 Taliban fighters and captured another 20 during the strikes. Today, helicopters struck at Taliban positions "in three different areas of [the] Mehsud tribe," KUNA reported. Up to 10 "tribesmen" were reported killed.

Makeen is the last known location of Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan, or Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. Baitullah was appointed leader of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan after a gathering of local Taliban leaders throughout the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province in mid-December. Pakistani intelligence intercepted a communication where Baitullah took credit for Benazir Bhutto's assassination and stated he was in the tow near the Afghan border.

Within one day of the Bhutto assassination in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi, there are multiple contradictory reports on how Benazir Bhutto was killed. The Pakistani government has changed its portrayal of her death three times in the 24 hours since her death. First she was reported to have been shot in the head and chest with AK-47 gunfire, then she was reported to have been killed by ball bearings from a suicide blast, and finally she died after suffering a skull fracture from hitting her head on the sunroof after the suicide bomber detonated.

The Daily Times, one of Pakistan's most reliable newspapers, reported that Bhutto was killed by gunfire after she poked through the sunroof to great her supporters.

*Benazir Bhutto was leaving Liaquat Bagh after addressing the rally when her vehicle, a Black Lexus bulletproof vehicle, stopped near the venue's gate where PPP workers were shouting party slogans.

* Benazir came out from the sunroof of her vehicle to respond to her supporters' slogans when a motorcyclist opened Kalashnikov fire on her.

* Benazir fell inside her vehicle after receiving bullet injuries on her head and neck.

* The attacker blew himself up after firing the shots.

This report is consistent with statements from two Bhutto aides, who said Bhutto was shot and bleeding once she got back inside the car. "Rescuers found Bhutto lying in pool of blood on the back seat. A senior party official, Amin Fahim, who had been sitting beside her, said he heard 'between three and five shots,'" the Guardian reported. "Amir Qureshi, a bodyguard from Bhutto's youth wing who had been jogging alongside her vehicle, said she was shot first in the neck, then in the head... Doctors administered open heart massage but Bhutto died from a bullet that severed her spinal cord, one medic at the Rawalpindi hospital said."

"She was hit in the neck and slumped back in the vehicle," the Herald Sun reported. "Blood poured from her head, and she never regained consciousness." A Pakistan Peoples Party spokesman also stated Bhutto "fell inside the vehicle after receiving bullets in her head and neck."

This account matches that of multiple police officers and eyewitnesses on the scene, including John Moore, a photographer from Getty Images, who was 20 yards from Bhutto during the attack. Moore clearly states that Bhutto went through the sunroof prior to the explosion:

"I ran up, got as close as I got, made a few pictures of her waving to the crowd," Getty Images senior staff photographer John Moore told CNN's online streaming news service, CNN.com Live, in a phone interview Thursday from Islamabad, Pakistan.

"And then suddenly, there were a few gunshots that rang out, and she went down, she went down through the sunroof," he said. "And just at that moment I raised my camera up and the blast happened. ... And then, of course, there was chaos."

Last evening, the Pakistani government changed the story. News reports indicated that nvestigators told a top-level meeting, led by President Pervez Musharraf, that Bhutto was killed by shrapnel from the suicide bombing. "The initial report that was submitted to the high-level meeting disclosed that Benazir Bhutto was hit by the ball bearings of the suicide bomber's jacket that hit and cut her jugular vain," the paper stated. "It caused her excessive internal and external bleeding. As a result, she died in no time. The report was submitted before the post-mortem was performed on her body. The exact nature of the wounds would be determined by the post-mortem report."

The Pakistani government has directly implicated the commander of the newly created Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema claimed the government intercepted a phone conversation between none other than Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, and Maulvi Sahib, one of Mehsud's underlings.

The Telegraph has the transcript of the alleged recording. Baitullah congratulates Sahib, who explains the attack was carried out by three of their own operatives.

Maulvi Sahib: Congratulations, I just got back during the night.

Baitullah Mehsud: Congratulations to you, were they our men?

Maulvi Sahib: Yes they were ours.

Baitullah Mehsud: Who were they?

Maulvi Sahib: There was Saeed, there was Bilal from Badar and Ikramullah.

Baitullah Mehsud: The three of them did it?

Maulvi Sahib: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.

Baitullah Mehsud: Then congratulations.

Yesterday, Mustafa Abu al Yazid, al Qaeda's commander in Afghanistan, boasted to a Pakistani journalist that al Qaeda was behind the attack. "We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen," Yazid said in a phone call to Syed Saleem Shahzad.

The Pakistan government's claim that Baitullah Mehsud is behind the attack and al Qaeda's claim of credit for the strike are not mutually exclusive. The Bhutto assassination also was very likely carried out with support from inside the police, military, and intelligence agencies.

Arianna Huffington has posted a rather moving elegy for her late and long-time friend Benazir Bhutto:

The world is debating the political fallout from Benazir Bhutto's assassination -- from fear of chaos in Pakistan to the impact of her death in Iowa. There is already no shortage of analysis about the national security implications of her death, but I want to write about the young woman I met in England before she became a player on the world stage.

She was at Oxford. I was at Cambridge. And by a strange coincidence I became president of the Cambridge Union and she became president of the Oxford Union. The anomaly of two foreign women heading the two unions meant that we ended up debating each other around England on topics ranging from British politics to broad generalities about the impact of technological advance on mankind.

I'm struck by how many Americans have offered these kind of personal anecdotes as a testament to Bhutto's character. She had written a diary at Slate, a blog at the Huffington Post, and apparently kept a correspondence with Mark Siegel--and this is the tip of the iceberg I'm sure. Christopher Hitchens offers a more even account, but he's no less troubled by her death (he, too, had personal history with Bhutto). Of course, not everyone is sad to see her go, but for all her faults, she was right on what mattered most--she was an ally in the war against Islamic extremism.

According to the US Census Bureau, approximately 35,000 New Yorkers (out of a total population of slightly more than 8 million) claimed Pakistani ancestry in the 2000 Census. That amounts to about 0.4 percent of the entire population of the city.

So why is New York City Mayor Bloomberg so fast to issue a statement on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto?

"Today all New Yorkers, including the more than 100,000 who can trace their heritage to Pakistan, are saddened to learn about the assassination of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Hers was a voice for democracy, and the silencing of it — by such brutal means — is a shock to us all. Ms. Bhutto's death — and the deaths of the many other Pakistanis who were killed today simply for expressing their views — is a great loss for friends of democracy and for everyone who is united in the fight against terror. It's also a grim reminder that many people consider the freedoms we cherish a threat. The perpetrators of this violent act must be brought to justice, and it is my hope that President Musharraf will follow through on free and fair elections in January as a testament to Ms. Bhutto's legacy."

Obviously there's no overriding reason for the Mayor not to react, but this all sounds a little outside the purview of the mayor, vaguely presidential even.

NRO has just posted a forum titled "After Bhutto" with some good analysis.

Jonathan Foreman writes that Musharraf is likely to be "badly damaged at least in the short term," and that "this could easily grow into widespread civil unrest, especially in the wake of her funeral tomorrow." He holds out some hope that the assassination will have the effect of forcing the country's political and military elite to take the threat from Islamic extremism more seriously--though one would think that the nine attempts on Musharraf's life, the complete loss of control in the tribal areas, and the frequent attacks on Pakistani military installations would have already done as much.

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross says this will give a boost to Nawaz Sharif, as he is, by default, now Pakistan's top opposition figure. And Victor Davis Hanson writes:

Our relations were always based on the flawed idea its Islamic and autocratic essence made it a good bulwark against communist Russia and socialist India. But the world has changed, and we should too. It is long past time to smile and curtail aid — and quit arming it with weapons that are more likely to be used against our friend India as bin Laden.

More there from Roggio, Henry Sokolski, Stanley Kurtz, and others.

Mustafa Abu al Yazid

Al Qaeda's central command is taking credit for today's successful assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. A senior al Qaeda military leader in Afghanistan has contacted Syed Saleem Shahzad, a Pakistani journalist for the Asia Times and Adnkronos International with close connections to the Taliban and al Qaeda, and bragged about killing Bhutto.

"We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen," Mustafa Abu al Yazid, al Qaeda's commander in Afghanistan, told Shahzad.

"It is believed that the decision to kill Bhutto, who is the leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP), was made by al-Qaeda No. 2, the Egyptian doctor, Ayman al-Zawahiri in October," Shahzad als reported. "Death squads were allegedly constituted for the mission and ultimately one cell comprising a defunct Lashkar-i-Jhangvi’s Punjabi volunteer succeeded in killing Bhutto."

Mustafa Abu al Yazid has long been the leader of al Qaeda in Afghanistan. In May, Yazid was officially appointed al Qaeda's military commander in Afghanistan.

The Lashkar-e-Jhangavi and other indigenous Pakistani terror groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammned and Lashkar-e-Taiba (which is now Jamaatud Dawa) essentially serve as muscle for al Qaeda in Pakistan. Based on the sophistication of the Bhutto assassination, al Qaeda and the Taliban were very likely assisted by infiltrators and sympathizers in the Pakistani military and Inter Services Intelligence agency.

Over at Hot Air, Bryan writes:

What does “justice” mean in the context of jihad, if jihadists perpetrated this attack? When they’re caught, tried and imprisoned in some countries, they remain unapologetic enemies of the rest of the world and they tend to get early parole. If they’re not allowed to escape by allies in strategic government positions. When we capture them and hold them at Guantanamo, “human rights” groups agitate for them and the ACLU goes to bat for them while the MSM reports their fabricated accusations against our personnel as truth, all while the political opposition works to grant them full habeas corpus rights. So what does “justice” mean when these assassins, whoever they may turn out to be, could well have touched off a civil war in a nuclear country?

It should be emphasized that Pakistan has become the main front for al Qaeda not only because of the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the compromises of Musharraf with the radicals, but because al Qaeda in Iraq is being beaten and they are seeking a more vulnerable front. Pakistan has been the second bloodiest theater in the GWOT after Iraq for years now. So while it's all well and good to say that the perpetrators, almost certainly members of al Qaeda, must be brought to justice, as Bryan points out, there is no justice for terrorists. The only good terrorist is a dead terrorist.

Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistani People's party, has been assassinated while campaigning in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi. Bhutto, who was a favorite to be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, was killed along with at least 20 of her supporters and security detail in a shooting attack and suicide bombing as she was exiting the campaign procession in her vehicle.

The first accounts of the assassination indicate the shooter and the suicide bomber were the same person. "Party supporter Chaudry Mohammed Nazir said that two gunshots rang out when Bhutto's vehicle pulled into the main street and then there was a big blast next to her car," the AP reported. "The man first fired at Bhutto's vehicle," Rawalpindi police officer Mohammad Shahid told Reuters. "She ducked and then he blew himself up."

Bhutto was taken to Rawalpindi General Hospital and was treated for "serious head injuries besides bullet injuries in the neck region," Safdar Abbasi, Bhutto's aide said. She was reported shot in the neck and chest, but Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Cheema said "It may have been pellets packed into the suicide bomber's vest that hit her."

The mode of attack suggests a level of training, discipline, and expertise of a military organization. If bullets penetrated Bhutto's vehicle windshield, which no doubt was bullet proof, the shooter was using armor-piercing rounds and had good aim. There is the possibility a sniper was placed elsewhere and aided the assault, although this has not been confirmed. The shooter also had the discipline to detonate his suicide vest after the confusion of firing into her vehicle.

Today's attack occurred in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi, which the Pakistani military presumably controls. This was was the fifth bombing targeting military and political leaders in Rawalpindi since July.

This was the second strike against Bhutto since her return to Pakistan in mid-October. The first attack also showed a level of sophistication, training, and discipline typical of a military operation. In the October attack on Bhutto's return processional in Karachi, snipers, suicide bombers, and a car bomb were coordinated among a blanket of security. The attack came close to killing Bhutto. Over 132 Pakistanis were killed and upwards of 500 wounded.

Bhutto supporters have begun to blame President Pervez Musharraf for her death. The sophistication of the attack, the governments reported refusal to provide adequate security, as well as the location of the bombing, have created distrust among Bhutto supporters.

But this attack was most likely carried out by the Taliban and al Qaeda. Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the newly united Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, threatened to kill Bhutto upon her return in October. The Taliban and al Qaeda manage training camps in Pakistan's tribal areas and have trainers and recruits from the Pakistani military in their ranks.

"My men will welcome Bhutto on her return," Baitullah told a former senator. "We don’t accept President General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto because they only protect the US interest and see things through its glasses. They’re only acceptable if they wear the Pakistani glasses."

Bhutto was believed to be the frontrunner as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. She returned to Pakistan after significant pressure on the Musharraf government was applied by the United States. Bhutto promised to rid the tribal regions of the Taliban and al Qaeda. Elections are to be held on January 8, 2007.

Not content to pull out of Basrah before the security situation there could be settled, it seems the British have again sought to conduct negotiations with the Taliban, the group that sheltered al Qaeda prior to and after September 11.

On December 11, This is London reported that Prime Minister Gordon Brown was set to tell Parliament that "negotiation [with the Taliban] is the only way to bring peace to the war torn country." This report was not substantiated by the major British news outlets, and in fact the next day Prime Minister Brown stated there would be no negotiations with the Taliban.

But it appears the British have already conducted negotiations with the Taliban. The Telegraph reports:

Agents from MI6 entered secret talks with Taliban leaders despite Gordon Brown's pledge that Britain would not negotiate with terrorists, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

Officers from the Secret Intelligence Service staged discussions, known as "jirgas", with senior insurgents on several occasions over the summer.

An intelligence source said: "The SIS officers were understood to have sought peace directly with the Taliban with them coming across as some sort of armed militia. The British would also provide 'mentoring' for the Taliban." ...

MI6's meetings with the Taliban took place up to half a dozen times at houses on the outskirts of Lashkah Gah and in villages in the Upper Gereshk valley, to the north-east of Helmand's main town.

The compounds were surrounded by a force of British infantry providing a security cordon.To maintain the stance that President Hamid Karzai's government was leading the negotiations the clandestine meetings took place in the presence of Afghan officials.

"These meetings were with up to a dozen Taliban or with Taliban who had only recently laid down their arms," an intelligence source said. "The impression was that these were important motivating figures inside the Taliban."

According to the paper, the Tory opposition is now looking into the report to determine if Prime Minister Brown misled them during the December 12 question and answer session in the House of Commons.

It should not be surprising that the British are willing to sit down with the Taliban to conduct direct talks. The source for the This is London report [which is no longer available online] stated that the British government does not view the Taliban as "united force," but a "disparate group of tribesmen infiltrated by foreign fighters." The same source held up Musa Qala as a success story:

"Musa Qala was a good example of what we are planning - once the town was stabilized people were ready to appoint judges, local police chiefs, start laying on service and start putting in power lines. But the Afghan government has got to demonstrate they can deliver and alternative strategy."

The British view of Musa Qala is quite different from what really occurred in the district over the past year. In October of 2006, the British withdrew from their small outpost in the district center after negotiating with who they claimed were "tribal elders" not aligned with the Taliban. Within days, the Taliban ran up the al rayah, the black banner of the terror group, in the district center.

The Pakistani Taliban continues their terror campaign in the Northwest Frontier province. The latest suicide attack targeted former Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao while he conducted Eid prayers at a mosque in the town of Aftab Sherpao in the settled district of Charsadda in the Northwest Frontier Province. Sherpao survived the assassination attempt, but over 50 Pakistanis were killed and over 200 wounded in the blast. Sherpao's son and nephew were among the wounded.

This is the second attempt against Sherpao this year. The Taliban targeted Sherpao while he was addressing his political party, the Pakistan Peoples Party (Sherpao Group) on April 28. Over 28 were killed in the suicide attack and scores more wounded, including Sherpao, his son, who was a minister in the NWFP assembly, and several other lawmakers and security officials. Taliban commander Abdullah Mehsud was behind the assassination attempt. Abdullah was killed by Pakistani security forces in July.

Sherpao has been a target of the Taliban and al Qaeda due to his stand against the rise in extremism in the Northwest Frontier Province and beyond. As Interior Minister, Sherpao led one of the few institutions the consistently stood up to the Taliban and al Qaeda. He was on the forefront in warning about the rise of the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province. Sherpao was a lone voice in the Pakistani government detailing the fall of the settled districts and tribal agencies to the Taliban in 2006.

This is the fourth suicide bombing in the Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan since December 13. Twelve soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in Kohat on December 17. A suicide bomber killed five and wounded 11 in an attack on a military check post in Nowshera on December 15. Two suicide bombers killed 16, including 11 police in Quetta in Baluchistan province on December 13.

A host of attacks have also occurred throughout the Northwest Frontier Province over the past week. The largest attacks include a series of Taliban ambushes in North Waziristan which resulted in 15 soldiers killed and 38 wounded, the kidnapping of two army captains and two soldiers while traveling from Dera Ismail Khan, and the beheading of a soldier in Khar in Bajaur agency. Numerous military patrols were ambushed and bases were rocketed, while music, Internet, and computer shops were bombed up and down the Northwest Frontier Province.

The Pakistani Taliban recently united to coordinate operations inside Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. On December 14, a shura, or council, of 40 senior Taliban leaders established the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan -- the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan -- and appointed powerful South Waziristan Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud its leader. Baitullah has been directly implicated in a series of suicide attacks on military and government officials throughout the course of 2007. The Taliban declared a ceasefire for Eid but clearly are not abiding by it.

The Taliban and al Qaeda continue their relentless attacks against the Pakistani security forces. Since December 13, Taliban and al Qaeda suicide bombings and conventional attacks have claimed the lives of 43 soldiers, paramilitary soldiers, and policemen.

The numbers obtained are from open source reporting from Pakistani news outlets. The Pakistani military has proven to be unreliable with casualty numbers, and has repeatedly under reported the numbers of those killed, wounded, or captured during operations.

Twelve soldiers were killed in a suicide bombing that targeted trainees at a soccer match in Kohat on December 17. Also, the Taliban beheaded a soldier in Khar, Bajaur. Four soldiers were killed during a suicide attack at a military base in Nowshera on December 16. A suicide bomber killed eleven security personnel at a checkpoint in Quetta on December 13. Fifteen soldiers were killed and 38 wounded in a series of Taliban ambushes on military convoys in North Waziristan.

Many of these attacks are occurring inside or along the border of the Northwest Frontier Province. The Pakistani military has much of its nuclear weapons infrastructure in this region.

The Pakistani military is fighting an insurgency that is far more effective and violent than that being waged in Iraq. The Pakistani military is losing more troops in a single week than the U.S. military will lose in Iraq for the entire month, or more.

The Taliban have united under the command of Baitullah Mehsud, the able Pakistani Taliban leader from South Waziristan. Mehsud has beat off multiple military incursions into South Waziristan, most recently at Mir Ali this fall. Called the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan--the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan--this new organization unites the Taliban of the seven tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan, Khyber, Orakazi, Bajaur, Mohmand, and Kurram, as well as the settled districts of Swat, Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohistan, Buner, and the Malakand division.

U.S. forces in eastern Afghanistan have killed the second senior member of Taliban commander Siraj Haqqani's powerful network. Combined Joint Task Force-82 (CJTF-82) has confirmed that Mullah Sangeen, Siraj's deputy, was killed in an unspecified raid on December 11.

"Sangeen was responsible for attacks on Afghan forces and improvised explosive device bombings," the CJTF-82 press release stated. The details and location of the raid have not been made public. CJTF-82 placed a $20,000 reward for information on his capture or death.

In late October the U.S. military singled out Siraj Haqqani and his network as a major threat in eastern Afghanistan. Siraj Haqqani, the son of the influential Taliban leader and former defense minister Jalaluddin Haqqani, was described as "one of the most influential insurgent commanders in eastern Afghanistan" who has "vied for the lead role as the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s prime antagonist."

Siraj is believed to be the new breed of Taliban leadership in Afghanistan: dangerous not only for his connections with the Afghan Taliban, but with al Qaeda's central leadership. The younger Haqqani's "extended reach brings foreign fighters from places like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, Turkey and Middle Eastern countries into Afghanistan," said Major Chris Belcher, a spokesman for CJTF-82, in October.

U.S. and Afghan forces are now actively working to dismantle the Haqqani Network, which is active in Khost, Paktia, Paktika, Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, and Kabul provinces and provides support to Taliban networks in Kunar, Nangarhar, Helmand, and Kandahar provinces. Mullah Manan, another senior member of the Haqqani Network, was killed in early Novmber.

CJTF-82 is clearly focusing on the Haqqani network and is working to cleave Siraj from his influential father, Jalaluddin. CJTF-82 is partially conducting this information operation via its press releases. Prior statements from CJTF-82 noted Siraj was usurping command of the senior Taliban leadership, including that of his father. The current press release insinuates both Mullah Manan and Sangeen were betrayed.

"That we would get two Haqqani sub-commanders so close together certainly raises an eyebrow and begins to make me wonder if Haqqani isn’t looking to get rid of those sub-commanders he doesn’t trust," Lieutenant Colonel Dave Anders, the operations officer for CJTF-82 stated. "Certainly, that’s all speculative, but it does make one wonder.”

Anders also noted that Siraj operates from across the border in Pakistan. "Siraj remains in Pakistan in relative safety and puts his subordinates in grave danger," said Anders. "It’s a different kind of leadership."

The Pakistani military continues to underreport its casualties in the tribal areas and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. The latest misrepresentation occurred in the Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan, which, along with other tribal agencies, the government has ceded to the Taliban.

On Wednesday, the Pakistani military claimed six soldiers were killed and 20 wounded after an ambush near Mir Ali. But Dawn reports the results of the ambush and other attacks in the tribal agency resulted in 15 soldiers killed and 38 wounded. The U.S. military has yet to take such casualties during a single day of combat in Iraq.

Fifteen soldiers were killed and 38 others injured in several attacks in different areas of North Waziristan on the border of Afghanistan on Wednesday...

According to the Pakistani daily, Dawn, the government's Inter Services Public Relations said in a statement that six soldiers had been killed and 25 injured in a roadside ambush. It said militants had suffered 15 casualties in a counter-attack.

Sources said a military convoy, travelling from Miramshah to Razmak, came under intense firing by militants after it had hit an improvised explosive device in the Dosali area. The assailants reportedly used heavy machine-guns and rockets and three army trucks were damaged in the attack.

While the Pakistani military is showcasing its offensive against Maulana Fazlullah's local Taliban in Swat (which the military has failed to fully secure after nearly two months of combat operations), the military was roundly defeated in a series of intense battles in North and neighboring South Waziristan in September and October. The Taliban fought the Pakistani military to a standstill, while hundreds of Pakistani paramilitary and regular soldiers were captured and scores killed during the bloody battles.

In South Waziristan, the Pakistani government caved to the demands of Taliban chieftain Baitullah Mehsud. Twenty-five senior Taliban leaders were released, including Afghan Taliban commanders such as Mullah Obaidullah and Amir Khan Haqqani. The government also reinstated the 2005 Sara Rogha accord, which gave the Taliban legal control over the agency which they commanded militarily.

The Pakistani military may be touting its limited success against the B team of Fazlullah's Taliban in Swat, but the A teams in Bajuar, North and South Waziristan, and throughout the tribal agencies and several settled districts in the Northwest Frontier Province remain unchallenged.

Michael brings up some excellent points about the problems with the Afghanistan campaign. The lack of unity in the military command and the absence of a central political force to direct a coherent counterinsurgency campaign harm our efforts. These problems are compounded by a major shortage of troops and the fact that many of the nations that contribute soldiers restrict their activities via "caveats."

NATO was created to deter, and if needed, fight a conventional conflict against the Soviet Union on the plains of central Europe. NATO was not conceived with the idea of fighting a protracted, low intensity campaign in the backwaters of central Asia. While coalition warfare can provide domestic and international political cover to fight protracted and unpopular conflicts, it severely restricts any individual nation's efforts to fight a counterinsurgency campaign.

Afghanistan provides a series of challenges that make the problems of Iraq seem simple. Afghanistan is landlocked, with Iran, Pakistan, and the 'Stans of the former Soviet Union hemming it in. Logistical support to Coalition forces in Afghanistan requires the West to over rely on Pakistan, which, like it or not, is one of our prime allies in the Afghan war.

Yet significant support flows from both Iran and Pakistan to the Taliban and al Qaeda. Iran has supplied weapons, aid, and training, according to military officials. The Taliban has the ability to recruit, train, arm, rest, and refit in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and Baluchistan. It is unclear that the perfect counterinsurgency campaign could significantly decrease the problems in Afghanistan. A significant percentage of the Taliban insurgency is based out of Pakistan.

Michael succinctly makes a point I've made repeatedly when discussing the situation in Afghanistan. "The situation in Afghanistan is not critical--there is no sign that the effort there is on the verge of some kind of collapse--but in a counterinsurgency campaign, if you're not winning, you're losing. And we are not winning."

In the past I've stated that Afghanistan is doomed to a sort of impasse--but not wholly because of failures in our counterinsurgency campaign. Until some meaningful progress is made to rout the Taliban and al Qaeda in the northwest and southern regions of Pakistan, Afghanistan will remain mired in fighting, no matter how good our counterinsurgency strategy is.

We should work to create a unified political command in Afghanistan, eliminate the harmful caveats, and improve our counterinsurgency strategy. But we must also seek a realistic solution to deal with the rising tide of Taliban and al Qaeda across the border in Pakistan.

Pakistani Air Force bases, including the nuclear sites of Kamra and Sargodha. Click to view.

Yesterday's suicide bombing at the Kamra Air Force Base in Punjab was not the first strike at a nuclear weapons storage facility. After a closer look at the bases struck inside Pakistan since August, at least two others occurred either on or near nuclear weapons storage facilities, based on open source information on Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs. Since August 2007, there have been two suicide attacks at or near the Sargodha Air Force Base, a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab province. Other attacks in Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province may be aimed at facilities providing regional security for Pakistan's nuclear program.

On August 2, Pakistani police prevented a suicide bomber from attacking a parade at a police training facility in the city of Sargodha in eastern Punjab province. Police shot and killed the suicide bomber after he climbed the wall of the police academy, fired on a security detail, and ran towards the parade grounds where over 900 recruits were assembled. One police officer was killed and another wounded in the exchange.

On November 1, a suicide bomber drove his motorcycle into a bus carrying military and intelligence officers at the air base in Sargodha. Eight were killed and 27 wounded in the strike.

The Sargodha Air Force Base serves as the "headquarters of the Pakistan Air Force's Central Air Command and home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft, and Hatf-III/Ghaznavi/M-11 ballistic missiles," NTI reports. "Analysts believe that the F-16s have been most likely modified for nuclear delivery. Some analysts believe that components or partially assembled air-deliverable nuclear devices might be stored at an ammunition depot at the Sargodha air base."

The Sargodha Air Force Base also houses "Pakistan's nuclear-capable, short-range, solid-fueled Hatf III/Ghaznavi/M-11 (total number estimated at 34-80) ballistic missiles," which are thought to be stored "at facilities near the Central Ammunition Depot on Kirana Hills at Sargodha. The evidence captured on US satellite imagery includes missile crates; storage sheds for transporter-erector launch vehicles; missile maintenance facilities; and housing for missile crews."

The Taliban and al Qaeda have hit several military and police bases near Pakistani nuclear facilities in northern Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province over the past year. A suicide bomber killed 45 army recruits as they trained outside the military base in Dargai in the Northwest Frontier Province in November 2006. The Dargai base “serves as the headquarters of a Pakistan's army corps," the New York Times reported. "Mechanized infantry, armor and artillery are stationed in the garrison."

As the Pakistani military continues the slow push to regain control of the settled district of Swat, suicide bombers struck in two locations, one of which was a sensitive weapons facility near Islamabad. The most deadly attack occurred in Swat in the Northwest Frontier Province after a suicide bomber hit a police checkpoint near Matta, where the Pakistani Army just established a presence. Ten were killed, including two children and three police.

But the attack at a Pakistani Air Force base in Kamra, while only injuring seven, has far more serious implications. The Kamra complex is a likely location for Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. The suicide bomber targeted a bus filled with 35 children of Pakistani Air Force officers. The driver, a conductor, and five children were wounded in the strike.

Global Security notes the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra is one of the Air Force sites likely associated with Pakistan's nuclear weapons development.

The Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex consists of three nearby armament facilities in Wah (Pakistan Ordnance Factories - POF), Kamra (Air Weapon Complex - AWC), and Taxilia (Heavy Industries Taxila -HIT). One or more of these facilities is probably associated with the weaponization of Pakistan's nuclear devices. According to some reports, the main storage and maintenance site of the Pakistani nuclear weapons, particularly the weapons at a 'screwdriver level', is located at the 'ordnance complex' in Wah...

The Air Weapon Complex at Kamra is devoted to air-to-surface munitions, among other activities, and would probably have at least some connection with the development of air-delivered nuclear weapons... The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) was almost certainly responsible for the modification of Pakistani aircraft, probably including F-16 fighters, to a configuration capable of delivering air-dropped nuclear weapons.

It is unclear if the suicide attack was a target of opportunity or a demonstration of the groups' capacity to penetrate security at sensitive locations. Taliban and al Qaeda suicide bombers have targeted secure military facilities over the past year.

On November 1 a suicide bomber killed eight at a Pakistani airbase in Sargodha in the province of Punjab. Two days prior, an al Qaeda suicide bomber killed eight in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. A pair of suicide bombing in the military garrison city of Rawalpindi on September 4th killed 25 and wounded 68. Pakistani military and intelligence officers were the direct target of twin bombings. A series of other attacks targeted military, intelligence, and police targets throughout the country as the Taliban and al Qaeda attempted to gain control of the Northwest Frontier Province and beyond.

The largest suicide attack so far targeted former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Karachi on the day she returned from exile. The sophisticated, multi-pronged ambush included suicide bombers, roadside bombers, and snipers. Over 136 were killed and more than 500 wounded. The Taliban and al Qaeda also conducted suicide attacks against Prime Minister Aziz and Interior Minister Sherpao. The Taliban also attempted to shoot down President Musharraf's airplane as he departed the airport in Rawalpindi. Musharraf has been the target of several assassination attempts since 2003.

In July, al Qaeda spokesman Abu Yahya al Libi called for the Pakistani people and the military to rise up against the Musharraf regime. Al Libi was later reinforced by both al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his second in command Ayman al Zawahiri. Al Qaeda is clearly looking to overthrow President Musharraf, with the ultimate prize being the state of Pakistan and its nuclear weapons stocks.

Last Friday, U.S., British, and Afghani forces started chipping away at the new Taliban stronghold of Musa Qala (see Bill Roggio's coverage here). The battle has turned into a real bar fight, though--after a three days of intense combat--it's looking like the bad guys are starting to knuckle under.

THOUSANDS of NATO and Afghan troops were last night engaged in "fierce fighting" to take the last remaining major town controlled by the Taleban in Afghanistan.

The three-pronged attack on Musa Qala, a key strategic town in the heart of Helmand province's poppy belt, is the biggest UK operation in Afghanistan since 2001 with about 2,000 British troops involved, including elements of the Scots Guards.

A battalion of US airborne infantry, a Danish battlegroup, Estonian and Afghan troops were also taking part, under the command of Scots Brigadier Andrew Mackay.

The NATO-Afghan forces have encircled Musa Qala which has been turned into a fortress by Taleban fighters who have been digging in to resist the expected assault since they took control in February.

A network of trenches, landmines, machinegun nests and sniper positions has been created in the town, which has been used by al-Qaeda terrorists and other foreign fighters as a base to launch suicide attacks and ambushes on international forces.

Dozens of Taleban were reported to have been killed as the American 82nd Airborne Division pushed into the town.

The British forces spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Richard Eaton said: "This is a deliberate defence. The Americans encountered small-arms and rifle fire from prepared positions."

He added the operation would carry on after nightfall, saying: "We own the night. We will continue to advance."

Danish, Estonian, and Afghani troops, all fighting under the banner of the Scots Guards. Strange little war, Afghanistan.

And although this sounds messy:

A network of trenches, landmines, machinegun nests and sniper positions has been created in the town, which has been used by al-Qaeda terrorists and other foreign fighters as a base to launch suicide attacks and ambushes on international forces.

. . . the wisdom of George S. Patton rings eternal: "Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man. . . . "

That's particularly true when precision guided munitions are part of the equation.

The Taliban have abandoned their former stronghold of Musa Qala in northern Helmand province. Despite boasts of over 2,000 fighters in the ranks and claims the "it will be very easy for us to resist the attack," the Taliban chose to bug out. A Taliban spokesman claimed they fled to protect the residents of Musa Qala, while a resident of the town said they pulled out in an organized fashion.

A Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousef Ahmadi, said the insurgents made a strategic decision to flee Musa Qala to avoid further destruction to the town.

"Because of the massive bombings this morning, the Taliban didn't want to cause more casualties, so this afternoon all the Taliban left Musa Qala,'' Ahmadi told The Associated Press by satellite phone.

A resident of Musa Qala, Haji Mohammad Rauf, said he saw Taliban fighters leave the town in trucks and motorbikes around noon. Two hours later, hundreds of Afghan soldiers streamed into town and establish security checkpoints, he said.

"I was standing on my roof and saw hundreds of Afghan soldiers drive into town," Rauf said. "All the shops are closed and families are staying inside their homes."

The Taliban have repeatedly been beaten in open combat when fighting Afghan and NATO forces. Arrayed against the Taliban in Musa Qala was an Afghan Army brigade, a battalion of U.S. soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division, elements from the British 40 Commando Royal Marines Regiment, the 2nd Battalion of the Yorkshire Regiment, the Scots Guards, and Danish forces.

Fighting has been reported to be ongoing at the outskirts of town as the Taliban is fleeing northward. At least two local Taliban leaders were captured during the assault, and a senior weapons facilitator was killed in an airstrike. It is unclear if NATO airpower is striking at Taliban columns as they withdraw, or if the Afghans cut a deal to allow the Taliban to flee in exchange for taking the city without a fight.

In the neighboring district of Sangin in Helmand province, the Taliban publicly hanged a 12-year-old boy for "spying" for the British. In Kandahar province, Canadian and Afghan forces killed 31 Taliban and captured eight in the Panjwai district.

The assault on the Taliban stronghold of Musa Qala in the southern Afghan province of Helmand is officially underway. After a month of rumors and a feint by a British armored column to the outskirts of the town in mid-November, Afghan National Army and international troops pushed to the edge of town. "This operation will continue for the next few days," the International Security Assistance Force press release stated.

The BBC reported the attack is occurring from three directions, and U.S. forces will conduct the final strike into the city. British, American, Estonian, and Danish troops conducted an air assault on the outskirts of Musa Qala City, while a large Afghan National Army force set up a blocking position outside the city.

The Taliban boast over 2,000 fighters in their ranks, and vow to fight, not flee. "Our lines are so strong that the foreigners will never break them," a local Taliban commander named Enqiadi told a report from IWPR at the end of November. "The foreigners say they are going to launch a major operation in Musa Qala. We are ready for that. In Musa Qala alone, we have 2,050 fully armed fighters. It will be very easy for us to resist the attack. We want to take the whole province this winter."

Helmand province has been the hub of the Taliban insurgency in the south since the British negotiated a controversial deal with the Taliban and withdrew from the district center in October 2006. The Taliban consolidated their gains and militarily overran the district center in February 2007, and have been in control ever since. Last month there were reports a senior Taliban tribesman in Musa Qala was seeking to negotiate a deal with the Afghan government, but the tribal leader did not turn on his fellow Taliban.

The Pakistani military's slow grind through the Taliban controlled district of Swat in the Northwest Frontier Province has finally reached Maulana Fazlullah's stronghold in the town of Imam Dheri. After Fazlullah's compound was overrun, troops found liquor and a prison. The Daily Times reports:

The army also blew up the houses of Fazlullah and his spokesman Maulana Sirajuddin, besides seizing several weapons, computers and some bottles of liquor from the site, army officials said. The liquor was believed to be seized at militants’ checkposts from people.

Earlier, troops backed by tanks and gunship helicopters advanced towards Imam Dheri and seized control of a madrassa run by Fazlullah, and an adjacent mosque without any resistance... Major General Nasir Janjua, commander of the Swat operation, told the reporters that the troops had operated very carefully in Imam Dheri to avoid any structural damage to the mosque-madrassa complex... The troops also dismantled a prison set up by militants inside a girls’ primary school in Matta and freed dozens of people, an intelligence official told AFP.

Though the reports are all sourced to often unreliable government officials, the finds at Fazlullah's compound and madrassa are consistent with similar raids on Taliban complexes in Afghanistan and al Qaeda camps in Iraq. While al Qaeda and Taliban leaders push the worst forms of Sharia law on their subjects, they very often ignore their own laws. Abu Musab al Zarqawi, for example, is rumored to have had a penchant for pornography and other un-Islamic proclivities.

Fazlullah is one of the most radical Taliban leaders in northwestern Pakistan. He has successfully organized campaigns against polio vaccination and girls schools throughout the region, while calling for the strictest version of Sharia to be implemented throughout Swat.

The Pakistani military continues its slow push through the Taliban controlled regions of Swat. While the government has claimed much of the settled district is under control, press reports indicate only half of Swat has been clear of Taliban fighters of Maulana Fazlullah's Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM - the Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law).

Pakistani forces have been moving northward from the neighboring district of Mardan since late October. Based on reporting from Dawn, the military has only advanced as far north as Matta and Khwazakhela to the east. This is in stark contrast to military reports that most of Swat is under control. The military has imposed a 24-hour curfew in Swat, apparently to facilitate the movement of more troops into the region.

Troops from neighboring Shangla in the east also advanced into the Matta region. Fazlullah's forces seized Shangla in November and subsequently abandoned much of the settled district. The military plans on building a base in Matta to prevent the region from falling to Fazlullah’s fighters in the future, but only "if the people of Swat want the army to stay here," Dawn reported. "The government was working on a Sharia package for Swat and said people would soon hear some ‘good news’ about it."

The imposition of Sharia law is one of the key demands of Fazlullah, along with the release of Sufi Mohammed, the leader of the TNSM, which sent over 10,000 fighters into Afghanistan to fight U.S. forces in 2001. Sufi was released in mid-November.

Fazlullah's forces are reportedly still in control of the Choprial and Peuchaar near Matta, "where militants reportedly have training camps." The resort towns of Madyan and Bahrain to the north, "which also have been vacated by militants," are still absent a military presence.

Fazlullah has been rumored to have fled to the neighboring district of Dir, where the TNSM maintain influence. Bajaur agency further to the west is currently a TNSM and al Qaeda stronghold, and may be a destination for Fazlullah if he cannot reestablish himself in Swat. He was last been heard from on December 2, when he broadcast on his illegal FM radio channel which had been jammed by the military.

While the Pakistani military still struggles to roll up the Taliban in Northwest Frontier Province’s settled district of Swat, the Taliban continues its campaign elsewhere in the troubled province. With much of the province under Taliban influence or outright control, the Taliban is flexing its muscle in Peshawar, the provincial capital.

The Taliban has conducted a campaign of bombings and intimidation against barber, tailor, video, and CD shops across the province. Today, the Daily Times reports shops in Peshawar are now opening “Islamic businesses” as the police are unable to protect them. The police have actually recommended the shopkeepers close down, and expressed their own fear of the Taliban as well.

The shopkeepers did not give up continuing their business until the local police expressed “helplessness” to protect them against any possible attack from militants. “We went to the local police and they disappointed us by saying that we better close down our business if there was a direct threat,” the DVD shop owner told Daily Times. Police, however, cited its problems in protecting the businessmen. “Everyone is seeking protection, but we do not have the required number of policemen to provide it,” Nisar Khan, station house officer at the University Town Police Station, told Daily Times.

“I am also under threat because of police uniform. What should I do? Should I leave the police or fight back?” he said, adding that he had asked higher officials to look into the shortage of police personnel in Peshawar.

Government officials also told theDaily Times that the Taliban is preparing to take Peshawar mid-2008.

A senior government official said sleeping cells of militants had set June 2008 as the timeframe to tighten the noose around Peshawar, which is likely to come under attack from the south and north, as pro-Taliban militants have made their presence felt as close to Peshawar as 30 kilometres.

He said the previous government of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and Islamabad were informed about the situation in Darra Adam Khel in south and Mohmand Agency in the north of Peshawar. “Our good luck is that the Taliban have not yet made ground in west (Khyber tribal district), otherwise, Peshawar would have been surrounded from three different directions and it would have been extremely difficult to defend the fort from the three-pronged attack,” the official added.

But tribal sources in Bara, Khyber tribal district, said the Taliban had not given up efforts to “create space” to threaten Peshawar from the west. They said the Taliban wanted to block the international highway to cut off Pakistan from Afghanistan.

The supply route to U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan is in direct jeopardy. In the past the Taliban have destroyed fuel and other trucks moving through the Khyber Pass to provide supplies for Coalition forces in Afghanistan.

The problem in the Northwest Frontier Province is far greater than the Pakistani government is prepared to admit. The limited offensive in Swat may temporarily dislodge the Taliban from one district, but the Taliban are pervasive throughout the province.

With the return of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan, a dangerous new actor has now reentered Pakistani politics. ABC News's the Blotter reports that Sharif has accepted a bribe from none other than Osama bin Laden.

The report is based on the interrogation of one Ali Mohamed, who "served as a special projects coordinator for bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al Zawahri in the mid-1990s." Based on the Blotter report, 'Mohamed was also in charge of selecting bin Laden's personal security team." This would be the Black Guard, and this posting along with the special projects coordinator position would place Mohamed at the heart of al Qaeda's inner working.

Mohamed, who is now in a U.S. prison for his role in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Africa, has been cooperating with the FBI and providing them with a wealth of information on the inner workings of al Qaeda. Frmer FBI agent and ABC News consultant Jack Cloonan has questioned Mohamed over a period of years and believes the information he has provided to U.S. authorities is accurate.

Cloonan says that back in 1999 Mohamed told the FBI he arranged for a meeting between bin Laden and Sharif's representatives. Following that meeting, Mohamed told Cloonan he delivered $1 million to Sharif's representatives. Mohamed said the payoff was a tribute to Sharif for not cracking down on the Taliban as it flourished in Afghanistan and influenced the Northwest Frontier Province in Pakistan, according to Cloonan.

Sharif, who was deposed by President Pervez Musharraf in a coup in 1999, is now being courted by Musharraf to serve as prime minister in a new coalition government. U.S. ambassador to Pakistan Anne W. Patterson is set to meet with Sharif today.

As the Blotter noted, rumors of Sharif's links to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden are not new. In 2005, Khalid Khawaja, a former Inter Services Intelligence operative, told Asia Times that Sharif and bin Laden met in Saudi Arabia in 1998. According to Khawaja, Sharif accepted cash to prevent the rise of political rival Benazir Bhutto.

After Gen Zia’s death in a plane crash (1988), elections were announced and there was a possibility that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led by Benazir Bhutto would win, which would be a great setback for the cause of the Afghan jihad against the USSR. The situation was discussed and all the mujahideen thought that they should play a role in blocking the PPP from winning the elections. I joined my former DG Hamid Gul and played a role in forming the then Islamic Democratic Alliance consisting of the Pakistan Muslim League and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The PPP won the elections by a thin margin and faced a strong opposition.

Nawaz Sharif insisted that I arrange a direct meeting with the Osama, which I did in Saudi Arabia. Nawaz met thrice with Osama in Saudi Arabia...

Nawaz Sharif was looking for a Rs 500 million grant from Osama. Though Osama gave a comparatively smaller amount, the landmark thing he secured for Nawaz Sharif was a meeting with the (Saudi) royal family, which gave Nawaz Sharif a lot of political support, and it remained till he was dislodged (as premier) by Gen Pervez Musharraf (in a coup in 1999). Saudi Arabia arranged for his release and his safe exit to Saudi Arabia,” he told Asia Times online.

Sharif is denying any links to the Taliban or al Qaeda. "Let me be clear I have been condemning all sorts of terrorism, whether in Pakistan or outside Pakistan," Sharif told the Associated Press. "We are moderates, we follow moderation and nothing except moderation. Remarks are made by other countries without taking (into consideration) our cooperation that we have extended in the past. To me this is unreasonable and I am disappointed."

Taliban in Swat celebrate in the streets.
Click to here to view more images from the BBC.

More than a month after the Taliban took over the settled district of Swat, once the most visited tourist spot in Pakistan, the Pakistani Army has yet to dislodge the Taliban from the scenic valley. The Pakistani military, beset by problems with poor morale and a poor counterinsurgency strategy, have made few gains since launching their ground offensive after weeks of bombarding civilian centers.

Asia Times's Syed Saleem Shahzad, who closely follows the Taliban movement in Pakistan and Afghanistan, states the vaunted Pakistani Army is no closer to defeating the Taliban than when it started offensive operations.

Intensified military operations over the past 10 days in the Swat Valley have not yielded any significant results. The army did succeed in recapturing a few districts but was in no position to force the militants' surrender. This means the army will not be able to consolidate its gains for any prolonged period in the valley - the militants will be back.

Shahzad also claims the Taliban seek to keep the Pakistani military from conducting operation along the tribal regions on the border, where al Qaeda and the Taliban have established training camps throughout the region and openly rule the tribal agencies.

The aim of the militants to date has been to engage the Pakistani security forces in the Swat Valley, forcing them to reduce their presence on the border. This in turn has allowed militants to cross freely into and out of Afghanistan in support of the Taliban's insurgency there.

The Pakistani military is losing an insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal regions (see "The Fall of Northwestern Pakistan" at The Long War Journal and "Is the NWFP Slipping out of Pakistan’s Control?" at The Jamestown Foundation for more details.)

Shahzad states the appointment of General Kiyani, Musharraf's successor as chief of staff of the Pakistani army, has increased the likelihood the Pakistani military will cut a deal with the Taliban in the long run. While Kiyani is not viewed as sympathetic to the Islamists, he will be under great pressure from the Pakistani military to halt the fighting. This will only embolden the Taliban and create a buffer for al Qaeda to continue cranking out terrorists to fight in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Iraq and throughout the Middle East.

President Musharraf has officially stepped down as chief of staff of Pakistan's army. Tomorrow he will be sworn in as the president of Pakistan. According to Pakistan's attorney general, Musharraf may drop the Provisional Constitution Order in the next several days. Pakistan's Daily Times reports:

The AG said, “General Musharraf’s oath as civilian president on November 29 would be taken under the 1973 Constitution and not under the PCO. He added that the upcoming general elections would also be held under the 1973 Constitution. Under the PCO some Articles relating to fundamental rights and the higher judiciary were suspended while provisions dealing with the presidential office remained intact, he said. He said the government had been considering lifting emergency rule but the recent terrorist acts had delayed the decision.

Musharraf declared the state of emergency at the beginning of November, which allowed him to suspend the 1973 constitution and replace it with the Provisional Constitution Order. Musharraf essentially imposed martial law, and was then able to replace members of the Supreme Court who refused to back his election as president. Musharraf was in violation of the constitution by serving as both president and chief of staff of the armed forces.

Musharraf stated his main reason for suspending the constitution was to fight the growing rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda. But if the 1973 constitution is restored prior to any attempts to clear the Taliban from its strongholds up and down the Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas, it is clear Musharraf's real intent was to preserve his own position in the Pakistani political power structure.

An important thought from a friend of THE WEEKLY STANDARD with very good connections in Pakistan:

Pakistanis are worried that we will broker a deal in which Musharraf or a successor will hold nominally free elections but without reinstating the deposed judges. We and the rest of the world aren't seeing the importance of the judges: no government will have legitimacy unless it reinstates them. The reason Pakistanis are so adamant about the judges is that this is the first time in recent memory that the judiciary has stood up to a military or civilian government. And the first time that civil society has backed their stand. Here's a newscast you might get a kick out of: "Flowers for Justice" in which people are inundating the homes of the deposed judges with flowers.

Map of the northern regions of the NWFP, including Swat.

Just one day after more than 500 Taliban fighters marched from the district of Swat in the Northwest Frontier Province into the neighboring district of Shangla and overran the district offices, the Pakistani Army and the Taliban fought a series of clashes in both districts. Reports on the outcome of the fighting are still sketchy, and the Pakistani Army and the Taliban are both claiming victory.

The Pakistani military claimed to have killed 54 Taliban during three separate engagements, which largely consisted of helicopter gunship attacks and artillery barrages on Taliban positions. "According to reports, 31 militants were killed in Swat army operation while 23 were killed in Shangla," the Nation reported, based on statements from military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad. A prominent Taliban commander, who has not been named, was also reported killed in the fighting, as were eleven civilians.

The Taliban have not refuted these casualty reports, but they also claim to have inflicted heavy casualties on Pakistani forces in both Shangla and Swat. Sirajuddin, a spokesman for Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah, "claimed that they had murdered at least 31 security forces personnel including four in Saidu Sharif and two in Batkhela and 23 in other parts of Shangla and Swat." In the past, the Taliban reports of casualties and captured soldiers have proven to be accurate while the Pakistani military has repeatedly obscured the numbers.

The current round of fighting in Swat and Shangla was initiated by the Pakistani military, which "had been assigned to flush out fighters from Swat by the middle of December," Al Jazeera reported, based on an anonymous police source.

The army recently assumed control of the offensive in the region, after hundreds of police and paramilitary soldiers defected or surrendered to the Taliban. A recent Pakistani offensive in Swat, which was initiated on October 26, stalled after the Taliban killed or captured hundreds of police and paramilitary troops.

The Pakistani military has largely relied on air strikes and artillery bombardments to attack the Taliban in Swat and other tribal agencies and settled districts in the Northwest Frontier province, and to date, the military has failed to clear the Taliban from regions such as North and South Waziristan, Bajaur, and Swat.

Yesterday I joined several other conservative bloggers in a session with former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton at the Heritage Foundation. (Check out Tech Republican, Soren Dayton, and Quin Hillyer for more coverage of the event, as well as the American Spectator for video of his appearance there.) Bolton was extremely impressive--he spoke with ease and precision about a range of foreign policy and national security issues--including Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Israel, China, the United Nations and internal State Department politics. Bolton's appearance is intended to help promote his new book, Surrender is Not an Option.

In a ranging interview, I'm not sure how best to summarize what Bolton had to say. For simplicity's sake, I'll simply give bullet points on each topic.

• Iran: On Iran, the United States has for more than 4 years followed a failed policy of negotiation, following the lead of our European allies. Those negotiations have gotten Iran 4 years closer to having nuclear weapons, instead of 4 years closer to regime change in Tehran--which ought to have been our policy. Iran's regime is extremely fragile, and is having a hard time satisfying an overwhelmingly young and ethnically diverse population. With our responsible policy choices limited to regime change and targeted use of force against Iran's military program, the former would be preferable. Yet the United States has not pursued this effort, and will not use covert means to force a change in Iranian leadership.

When I asked Bolton specifically what he expected the administration to do with regard to Iran in the waning days of the administration, he expressed disappointment that President Bush is now hearing 'nothing but don't attack; don't upset the apple cart.' Soon he said, President Bush will be told not to strike Iran because of the way it will influence the presidential campaign, and after the election, he will be told to leave the challenge for the next president. Bolton said he is 'not optimistic.'

• North Korea: The problem of North Korea won't be eliminated until the North Korea regime is eliminated, the Korean peninsula is reunited, and the last anomaly resulting from World War II is corrected. China does not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons, because it encourages the nuclearization of Japan and South Korea, which is against China's interests. Beijing refuses to put too much pressure on Kim Jong Il, however, because it believes that the collapse of the regime would lead to reunification under the leadership of South Korea, with the potential for U.S. troops to be stationed along the Yalu River.

Bolton also attached great significance to the recent Israeli strike in Syria, against a facility associated with North Korea's nuclear program. He expressed a strong desire for the declassification of all the information about the strike that can be declassified. Bolton said that many questions remain and that at the very least, all Members of Congress should be briefed on it. Is Syria cooperating with North Korea on nuclear technology? They could not do so on their own, and would not do so without Iran's assistance. Is Syria then serving as a conduit for nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Iran? Bolton believes these questions must be addressed.

Mullah Obaidullah Akhund.

President Pervez Musharraf's promise to hunt the Taliban during this virtual state of emergency rings hollow as the Taliban's grip on the northwest Frontier Province tightens. Newsweek reported the Pakistani government has released several senior Taliban commanders captured inside Pakistani territory over the past year. The leaders were among 25 Taliban exchanged for over 200 Pakistani soldiers captured by South Waziristan commander Baitullah Mehsud in late August.

Among those freed from Pakistani jails are Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, Amir Khan Haqqani, two brothers of slain Taliban commander Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Usmani, and Baitullah Mehsud's cousin.

Mullah Obaidullah was the Taliban defense minister from 1996 until the United States toppled the government in the fall of 2001. He was the most senior Taliban figure captured to date and "is considered by American intelligence officials to have been one of the Taliban leaders closest to Osama. bin Laden," as well as part of the "inner core of the Taliban leadership around the Mullah Muhammad Omar who are believed to operate from the relative safety of Quetta." Obaidullah was a member of the Taliban's Shura Majlis, or executive council, and was thought to be third in command.

Obaidullah was arrested in Quetta in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, which borders Kandahar and Helmand provinces in Afghanistan. The Taliban have established a command and control network for senior leadership to direct operations in Afghanistan from in and around the city of Quetta.

Amir Khan Haqqani, the former Taliban military commander of Afghanistan's southeastern province of Zabul, and Abdul Bari, the former governor of Helmand province, were both captured along with Obaidullah in February of 2006. Haqqani was released, but it is unclear if Bari is still in custody.

Baitlullah Mehsud, the powerful Taliban commander of South Waziristan who recently fought the Pakistani military to a standstill, demanded an end to military operations as well as the release of the 25 senior Taliban commanders as condition to the ceasefire.

The Pakistani government has caved to the demands of Baitullah. The Taliban leaders have been released, while the government reinstated the 2005 Sara Rogha accord, which prevent the government from operating with no restrictions on Taliban activities inside or outside of Pakistan.

Mehsud captured almost 300 Pakistani troops--an entire company--as it conducted a resupply mission in South Waziristan. The company surrendered without firing a shot after the Taliban surrounded the convoy. The government freed over 100 of Mehsud's "tribesmen" immediately after the troops were captured in an attempt to secure their release.

All of the troops have since been released, though several were beheaded. The morale of the Pakistani military has plummeted from suffering defeat after defeat at the hands of the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province. Troops are deserting or surrendering to Taliban fighters in Swat at an alarming rate.

Over 29 Taliban and al Qaeda camps are known to be in operation in both North and South Waziristan alone.

Pervez Musharraf.

After a day of rumors that President Pervez Musharraf would impose a state of emergency and multiple denials by cabinet officials, Musharraf has pulled the trigger and suspended the Pakistani Constitution. A state of emergency is now in effect and Musharraf has created Provisional Constitutional Order to replace the existing constitution. Pakistani Rangers, a paramilitary police force, has deployed in the capital of Islamabad and surrounded the Supreme Court building.

Pakistani media outlet Dawn calls the suspension of the constitution and the imposition of emergency rule "General Musharraf's Second Coup." On its website, Dawn reports the Supreme Court has deemed the move "'illegal and unconstitutional' and asked the corps commanders and all civil and military officials not to take oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order."

"Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who condemned the moves, has reportedly been sacked and is being confined to the Supreme Court with 10 other judges," the BBC reported. Musharraf attempted to remove Chaudhry during the spring of 2007. The move against Chaudhry failed and resulted in a political backlash which has worsened the political crisis in Pakistan.

The suspension of the constitution comes just days before Pakistan's Supreme Court was to rule on the constitutionality of Musharraf's recent presidential reelection victory. It is believed the high court would have ruled against Musharraf.

CNN reported Musharraf has imposed martial law (military rule). The New York Times reported "a list had been prepared of prominent Pakistani journalists and opposition politicians who would be detained."

Cable media outlets have been shut down and telephone links are being severed. At this time the websites of the major Pakistani media outlets are still functional.

Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who returned to Pakistan in October and recently left the country to visit family, immediately boarded a plane and is said to have returned to Karachi. Bhutto was targeted by a sophisticated al Qaeda ambush within 24 hours of her return in October. Bhutto placed the blame for the attack on Hamza bin Laden, the son of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Hamza is believed to have entered North Waziristan recently.

It is unclear what effect, if any, the declaration of a state of emergency will have on the Taliban and al Qaeda insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province. The Associated Press of Pakistan, the official government news outlet, stated both "terrorist attacks and judiciary’s interference led to imposition" of the state of emergency.

"The two page proclamation that came into force at once states that banning of some militant groups took terrorist activities to an unprecedented level of 'violent intensity' posing a grave threat to the life and property of the citizens of Pakistan," the Associated Press of Pakistan news release stated. "The order says that emergency has been imposed in the wake of suicide bombings, explosions of Improvised Explosive Devices, rocket firing and bomb explosions, besides a spate of attacks on State infrastructure and on law enforcement agencies."

The Pakistani military has been demoralized by the fighting and troops are surrendering or being captured and beheaded by the dozens. The Taliban has fought the military to a standstill in North Waziristan and Swat, and the government continues to seek negotiations.

After days of sporadic fighting, intermixed with beheadings and ceasefires, the Pakistani military has again called for a halt in fighting with the Taliban in the settle district of Swat. Meanwhile, the Pakistani government is bragging about the number of "militants" (read: Taliban) it killed in Swat over the past few days:

"The reports which I have from the police and Frontier Corps people who were doing this law enforcement action was about 50-60 militants died yesterday," Army spokesman Major-General Waheed Arshad said.

What Major-General Arshad fails to tell you is the number of Pakistani troops killed in the fighting. While there is no official count, a casual scan of the news will provide it. The Pakistanis have taken casualties equal to that of the Taliban:

October 25: 30 Pakistani soldiers killed in suicide bomb attack on a convoy.
October 26: 7 Pakistani soldiers captured and beheaded.
October 28: 10 Pakistani soldiers killed in fighting.

Forty-seven Pakistani soldiers were killed in four days of on and off fighting in Swat. These are numbers that makes U.S. casualties in Iraq seem like child's play. The high casualties encounter have demoralized the military and made military operations very unpopular in Pakistan.

Whether they want to recognize it or not, the Pakistani military and government is fighting an intense Taliban insurgency in the settled districts and the tribal areas of Northwest Frontier Province. Their solution has been half-hearted combat, followed up by "peace accords" which cede territory to the Taliban. If history is a good indicator, the government will again cave to the Taliban in Swat as it has in Bajaur, Mohmand, and North and South Waziristan.

There's little new news coming out of Burma. The junta, having shut down Internet access inside the country, has all but stopped the flow of information to the outside world. It's difficult to know exactly what is going on there now, but it seems more likely than not that the Burmese push for democracy has been violently suppressed, with hundreds, and possibly thousands, of protesters slaughtered. This has caused much hand-wringing from across the political spectrum, but beyond empty talk of boycotting the Beijing Olympics, there has been no serious course of action recommended by anyone on either the left or the right. And this includes the Bush administration, which has only mustered the courage to condemn the ongoing atrocity while implementing toothless sanctions against a regime that needs nothing from the United States.

But there is something that can be done. Senator Lieberman first raised the possibility of military action last week, urging the Bush administration to "investigate how else our military and intelligence capabilities can be used to put additional stress on the regime," and to examine "how the junta's ability to command and control its forces throughout the country might itself be disrupted." And yesterday, WEEKLY STANDARD editor Bill Kristol published a piece in the Washington Post calling for the Bush administration to put its money where it's mouth is. Under the headline "Talk is Cheap," Kristol wrote:

Couldn't we use other military and intelligence capabilities to put more stress on the regime? As Sen. Joseph Lieberman has suggested, "The junta has tried to cut off the ability of peaceful demonstrators to communicate to the outside world through the Internet and cellphone networks; we should be examining how the junta's ability to command and control its forces throughout the country might itself be disrupted." What about limited military actions, overt or covert, against the regime's infrastructure -- its military headquarters, its intelligence apparatus, its rulers' lavish palaces? Couldn't such actions have a deterrent effect, or might not they help open up fissures in the regime? Have we really done all we can to avert the disaster that is unfolding?

In his second inaugural address, President Bush, quoting Lincoln, put "the rulers of outlaw regimes" on notice: "Those who deny freedom to others deserve it not for themselves; and, under the rule of a just God, cannot long retain it." Couldn't the Bush administration do more to give that just God a helping hand?

Via Reason's Hit & Run blog, we get a taste of the Junta's propaganda...they're evil and illiterate.

Joe Lieberman has an op-ed in today's New York Daily News titled "How American power can help bring peace to Burma." Lieberman stops short of calling for direct military action against the regime, but he brings us a step closer to such action be calling for "our military and intelligence capabilities [to] be used to put additional stress on the regime."

Even as we press our foreign friends to do more, however, we must not allow the inaction of other governments to become an excuse for our own inaction. As we learned in the Balkans a decade ago, promises of continuing diplomacy are sometimes not enough. The United States must also think hard about how we can use our own national power to help the Burmese people against their tyrannical rulers....

But we must do much more. To begin with, the United States must turn the full spectrum of its intelligence-gathering capabilities on Burma to monitor, document and publicize what is happening on the ground.

The soldiers who are being ordered to carry out and enforce this bloody crackdown must know that they are being watched and listened to, and their names are being recorded. The men who wear the uniform of this regime must be made to understand that the day will come when they may be judged before a court of their victims, and when that day arrives, there will be ample evidence of the crimes they commit.

The Bush administration should also actively investigate how else our military and intelligence capabilities can be used to put additional stress on the regime. The junta has tried to cut off the ability of peaceful demonstrators to communicate to the outside world through the Internet and cell phone networks; we should be examining how the junta's ability to command and control its forces throughout the country might itself be disrupted.

The use of U.S. electronic warfare assets to disrupt the Junta's command and control would, presumably, require the Navy to take a lead role, as that service has traditionally been a leader in electronic warfare of this sort. I think it's safe to read this as a call to station a U.S. aircraft carrier off the coast of Burma. If that were to happen, I think Lieberman is exactly right to suggest that those carrying out the regime's orders, and those transmitting them, would have good reason to think twice about committing further atrocities. And if they don't, it's pretty clear what the next step would be.

The quote of the day comes by way of Mike Boyer at FP Passport. Boyer's had some excellent coverage of the situation in Burma over the last week or so, and today he highlights this story about Sylvester Stallone, who has just left Burma after working there on a Rambo sequel. Stallone calls Burma "a hellhole beyond your wildest dreams."

"I witnessed the aftermath - survivors with legs cut off and all kinds of land mine injuries, maggot-infested wounds and ears cut off. We saw many elephants with blown off legs. We hear about Vietnam and Cambodia and this was more horrific...

"This is full scale genocide. It would be a whitewashing not to show what's over there. I think there is a story that needs to be told."

And if you think Stallone is exaggerating, Boyer also links to this report from Science Daily which relied on satellite imagery showing "clear physical evidence to corroborate on-the-ground accounts of specific instances of destruction" stretching back to last year. Where's Rambo when you need him?

The Daily Mail is reporting that Burma's Saffron Revolution has disintegrated under the weight of a government crackdown:

Thousands of protesters are dead and the bodies of hundreds of executed monks have been dumped in the jungle, a former intelligence officer for Burma's ruling junta has revealed.

The most senior official to defect so far, Hla Win, said: "Many more people have been killed in recent days than you've heard about. The bodies can be counted in several thousand."

Mr Win, who spoke out as a Swedish diplomat predicted that the revolt has failed, said he fled when he was ordered to take part in a massacre of holy men. He has now reached the border with Thailand.

And what is the response from the left? Talk Left says:

This is a huge human rights violation. Amnesty International is calling for an international arms boycott to Myanmar.

As for what's being done about it, not much that I can tell. The U.N. Envoy was scheduled to meet with the leaders of the Myanmar military junta but it's now been delayed.

Yes, if Amnesty International could just convince the Chinese to stop selling arms to Burma....that's realistic. Shakespeare's Sister is also frustrated by U.N.'s slow progress: "Meanwhile, the UN envoy is still being stalled by the junta, and it will only be increasingly difficult to get accurate information out of Myanmar, as soldiers continue to go 'to hotels in search of foreign journalists operating without permission.'" Do these folks really believe that once the U.N. envoy is allowed to meet with the Burma's ruling junta some progress will be made?

Andrew Sullivan, who has provided the best coverage of this, acts as if he's going out on a limb today in saying that:

"Threatening a boycott of the Beijing Olympics does not seem to me unreasonable, unless the Chinese really do tell the junta to stop the killing."

Well at least that's something. Matthew Yglesias, who has a policy prescription for everything, can only muster this in response to the crackdown:

"It bears mentioning that things seem to have gone entirely to hell in Burma, with reports now coming out that the death toll in the crackdown has been higher than it initially appeared.

Bears mentioning? How about a suggested course of action? It's the same at the Huffington Post, where Jim Wallis laments that "The news this afternoon from Myanmar/Burma is not good." The DailyKos makes no mention of the crackdown at all, and the blog at the American Prospect doesn't appear to have mentioned Burma all week. What gives?

Surely the left is just as outraged by the events in Burma as we are, but what do they suggest be done about it? Nothing apparently, except wait for the United Nations, which will also do nothing. Wait, I've found a diarist at DailyKos with a plan:

Speak out to stop the massacre! We are asking you to wear red to demonstrate that students everywhere care about the situation in Burma.

That'll show the junta. Ace has a pretty spot-on analysis of why "for the left the proper way--the only way--to deal with brutal murderers and tyrants is to caterwaul about it and peacock-preen their pretty feathers of righteous indignation." It's worth reading the whole thing.

Beijing is taking some heat for blocking, along with Russia, a UN security council resolution condemning Burma, but the Communist party has other things to worry about besides international opinion and an Olympic boycott. The friendly junta that gives China an outlet to the Indian Ocean is facing a big challenge. Worse, the Chinese people are watching their neighbors--not far off Europeans--protest bravely in the face of overwhelming force.

Last night, my friend Kejian in Hangzhou skyped me. He says popular Chinese internet bulletin boards are dominated by statements of support for the democracy protests in Burma. Volunteers are translating news from English sites that are not blocked by censors. And, my friend pointed out, photographs don’t need translation. Later he reported that censors were starting to block and delete a lot of Burma postings.

One hopes it is no coincidence that President Bush announced he would attend a ceremony next month to honor the Dalai Lama, whom Beijing regards as an “evil splittist,” and button-holed Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi in the Oval Office to press him on Burma on the same day.

Meanwhile, the crackdown continues. You can read an eyewitness account at Radio Free Asia, a list of Burma's pro-democracy blogs at Pajamas Media, and a lot of other news at Michelle Malkin's site. And here's the video of the murder of Japanese journalist Kenji Nagai.

Again, Andrew Sullivan, has the best coverage of developments in Burma. The Bush administration has imposed sanctions on the leadership in Burma...I'm sure that'll do a lot of good, especially given the fact that "China and Russia signaled last night that they would block any UN sanctions against Burma." Meanwhile, a friend of Reason blogger Kerry Howley wrote yesterday with this disturbing message:

internet going down. phone lines down. bullets fired into the air. crowd not retreating.

Without the internet, it seems that Burmese have only one source of information. Again, Kerry Howley:

But while the world may be watching, I doubt most Burmese are. The country’s communications infrastructure is incredibly limited. Seven people out of 1,000 own televisions, and they’re not getting BBC. They’re watching MRTV-3: all government propaganda, all the time. It’s difficult to get a license for a satellite or an internet connection. Cell phones cost thousands of dollars; even most expats don’t carry them.

On the effort to tie this to the 2008 Olympics in order to leverage Beijing's assistance, the Washington Realist quotes the Nixon Center's Drew Thompson:

"If the situation in Myanmar deteriorates further and violence ensues on a larger, systematic scale, the Chinese government will be vulnerable to accusations that it has protected and supported a rogue regime. And it bears reminding that the 1988 demonstrations in Burma that were so brutally suppressed is known as the "8888 uprising," standing for August 8, 1988, which is the day the students took to the streets. The opening ceremony in Beijing will occur is twenty years to the day from the start of the protests in Rangoon."

The Economist also weighs in:

If China proves actively obstructive to international efforts to bring the junta to book, it may provoke calls for a boycott of the games.

And if you want to see video, Sullivan links to some good stuff at YouTube. But the video below is also instructive. It shows the wedding of Thandar Shwe, the daughter of the junta's senior general, Than Shwe. And keep in mind this is a country with a per capita GDP of roughly $1,800. It's a stark contrast to the images now coming out of Burma, like the one at the top of the post from Burma Digest.

From Rule of Lords, a scene from the Saffron Revolution.

Andrew Sullivan has the best round-up of the news from Burma, including a link to this list of eyewitness accounts.

It sounds as though the government's attempt to crackdown on the protesters fell short, and that tomorrow is likely to see more violence. One of the stories Sullivan links includes this description of the day's events:

There were shades of Tianamen Square as people threw themselves and their bicycles on the ground, burying their heads in their hands or hugging their friends. Then a terrified human tide swept down the street, fleeing from the soldiers in my direction. A look of terror was etched on many faces.

There are likely to be a lot of comparisons to Tianamen, and with good reason. Burma's primary patron is China, and as the New York Times reported today, China's primary interest is stability--to keep the supply of raw materials flowing out of the country:

While Beijing has shielded Myanmar’s government from its international critics — for instance, by blocking a United Nations Security Council resolution earlier this year condemning its human rights record — it has also urged the junta to avoid a repeat of the violent crackdown on demonstrations in 1988 that led to extended periods of house arrest for the opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi....

Tang Jiaxuan, a member of China’s State Council and a former foreign minister, told Myanmar’s foreign minister, U Nyan Win, on Sept. 13 that the Chinese government hoped its neighbor could restore stability and promote national reconciliation, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

“If Aung San Suu Kyi became the leader of Burma tomorrow, China would be the first country to roll out the red carpet,” said Bertil Lintner, an analyst of Myanmar politics based in Thailand. “But they wouldn’t like to see it happen.”

The 2008 Olympics are a wild card here. There seems to be a consensus that China will not take any extreme measure to prop up its Burmese client, but might the Olympics be used as leverage to pry the Chinese further away from the junta? FP Passport has this skeptical response:

China's motives in relations with Burma have nothing to do with the Olympics. I doubt that even the idea of some connection has ever crossed the minds of Chinese leaders. Only someone distant from the region could even imagine that."

But wasn't there the same disconnect with Sudan? Giving credit where credit is due, the Hollywood crowd seems to have made a dent on that issue. By threatening to label the spectacle the "Genocide Games," Mia Farrow in particular has helped to link the two. It certainly doesn't seem like the idea should be dismissed out of hand. Equally worrisome is the role Russia may play. Reuters reported today that the Russian foreign ministry had released a statement with a rather menacing undertone:

"We consider any attempts to use the latest developments to exercise outside pressure or interference in the domestic affairs of this sovereign state to be counterproductive," the statement said.

It called on both the government and the opposition to "exercise restraint", but added: "We still believe that the processes under way in Myanmar do not threaten international and regional peace and security."

If Burma's spectacularly nasty regime is preparing to slaughter its opponents, that looks an awful lot like a green light from Moscow.

As part of its ongoing propaganda war, al Qaeda’s leaders are once again flooding the airwaves. Both Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri reportedly cover a lot of ground in their two new recently released tapes. Importantly, they have once again declared war on President Musharraf and his government.

Al Qaeda’s threats towards Musharraf are not, of course, entirely new. But these most recent threats appear to be explicitly timed to coincide with the announcement of the date for upcoming elections, which will determine Musharraf’s political fate.

One tape, entitled “Come to Jihad,” reportedly features the voice of Osama bin Laden. Laura Mansfield, whose translations of al Qaeda’s missives are indispensable, provided the Associated Press with some of the highlights from the tape. Bin Laden says the conflict at the Red Mosque in July “demonstrated Musharraf's insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims . . . and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory.” Bin Laden called on Pakistanis to rebel against Musharraf: “So when the capability is there, it is obligatory to rebel against the apostate ruler, as is the case now.”

Another tape features Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to the Associated Press, Zawahiri also referenced the siege of the Red Mosque, saying it “revealed the extent of the despicableness, lowliness and treason of Musharraf and his forces, who don't deserve the honor of defending Pakistan, because Pakistan is a Muslim land, whereas the forces of Musharraf are hunting dogs under [President] Bush's crucifix.”

These open threats raise the specter of a fresh round of attacks in Pakistan. But Musharraf’s life has been threatened before--al Qaeda has already made several attempts on Musharraf's life. The real question, then, is: will these most recent threats convince Pakistan, and her American ally, to do more about al Qaeda’s safe haven in the northern tribal regions?

It is no secret that al Qaeda’s two most senior leaders are, most likely, hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, including Northern and Southern Waziristan. In fact, in his most recent tape, bin Laden reportedly refers to fallen al Qaeda leaders who were slain in these areas as additional justification for attacking Musharraf’s government. But Musharraf’s response to the terror emanating from these uncontrolled areas of Pakistan has been uneven. At some points in the past he has been willing to make a show of force in confronting the thousands of terrorists holed up there, but at other times he has effectively ceded large swaths of Pakistani territory to al Qaeda’s tribal allies. The latter happened last year when Musharraf agreed to the disastrous tribal accords, which limited Pakistan’s engagement in the region and allowed al Qaeda and its allies time to further entrench themselves in their new safe haven.

Chinese media do not typically devote much effort to covering developments in India. In recent weeks, however, they have produced numerous reports on the U.S.-India civilian nuclear deal known as the "123 Agreement."

The August 13th issue of Study Times, the official journal of the Chinese Communist Party Central Party School, ran a lengthy piece on the strategic implications of the Agreement, under which the U.S. will provide nuclear fuel and technology to India. Aiming its criticism primarily at Washington, rather than New Delhi, the article calls the deal "a dangerous precedent" and accuses the United States of practicing "double standards" by making concessions to India while opposing efforts by Iran and North Korea to develop nuclear weapons.

The article also presents the following take on the economic motivation behind the deal:

It goes without saying that the United States is the biggest beneficiary of the Agreement. The General Electric Company of the United States has formed with Hitachi of Japan a joint venture in India to build nuclear reactors. By GE’s estimate, this project alone will contribute to an eight-fold increase in its revenue between 2005 and 2010.

GE's current annual revenue is well north of $150 billion--an eight fold increase seems unlikely. And although China is not identified by name, the article suggests that geopolitics plays a role in the nuclear deal as well, with Washington "molding" India into a regional counterweight:

To promote America’s policy objectives and meet its global strategic needs, the United States hopes to bring India into its strategic orbit as a new partner in Asia. Its intent is to take advantage of India’s strategic location in South Asia in order to achieve a balance of power in Asia.

Official Chinese media have also been recounting with evident glee the strong opposition to the 123 Agreement by India’s leftist lawmakers. For example, this August 20th People’s Daily report, titled "Causing Discord, Indo-US Nuclear Agreement May Not Pass India’s Parliament," states:

The Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement was regarded as a virtually done deal. But then the unexpected happened – a chorus of opposition surfaced in the parliament. To this day, the United Progressive Alliance government led by the Congress Party hasn’t yet figured out where it all went wrong.

Beijing itself may hold the key to that question. The 123 Agreement has plunged Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s three-year old coalition government into its worst-ever political crisis, and elements within the Indian government are reported to believe that "the Left’s campaign against the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal is inspired by Beijing." The Times of India, in an August 21st report titled "Chinese Whispers," notes that the deadlock between the UPA government and its leftist ally "bears Beijing’s imprimatur."

The Agreement must also be cleared by the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which counts China as a member. While Beijing is obviously keeping a close eye on the development, it has not yet announced what position it will take when the 45 member states of the NSG meet to discuss the matter. Should India’s leftist lawmakers succeed in derailing the deal prior to an NSG vote, Beijing would be rescued from having to make a difficult choice that might put improving Sino-Indian relations at risk.

By tradition, lame duck presidents do not accomplish much. They must narrow their legislative focus to a few significant priorities that will figure prominently when their legacies are assessed. In particular, they tend to focus on foreign policy--where Congress is traditionally more deferential to presidential leadership.

But that has not been the case this year, as deference is in rather short-supply on the Hill. On issues ranging from the war in Iraq to the refusal of Congressional leaders to schedule votes on trade agreements that have already been signed with Colombia, Peru, Panama and Korea, Congress is throwing its weight around. Another area where the Bush administration is having a hard time getting 'traction' is on the nuclear agreement it reached two years ago with India. That agreement is at the core of the Bush administration's efforts to seal closer relations with the world's largest democracy. As final negotiations get underway this week in Washington, the stakes are high--hundreds of billions of dollars in sales of weapons systems and nuclear technology may be at risk if the deal falls through:

The question is whether the administration can hammer out a compromise on nuclear cooperation that doesn't undercut existing U.S. law or give India leeway to develop a new batch of atomic weapons on top of the ones it already has. India is demanding several painful concessions, U.S. officials and experts said, that are almost certain to anger key leaders in Congress from both parties.

Hanging in the balance in the nuclear-and-technology proposal are tens of billions of dollars in potential energy, aircraft and other deals, U.S. business executives said. India is looking to build dozens of new electricity plants and to drastically increase its military hardware over the next five years.

India's energy minister has been traveling the U.S. talking up $50 billion worth of energy deals India plans to award over this period, and another $200 billion of deals down the road. U.S. aircraft makers are lining up to vie for a 126-plane fighter-aircraft deal that could be worth up to $10 billion over the next several years.

India is also floating a potential $30 billion of nuclear-reactor sales over the next 20 years, piquing the attention of companies such as General Electric Co. and Westinghouse Electric Co.

As the Asia-Pacific region becomes increasingly important in U.S. foreign policy and security calculus, India stands as a critical partner. We may get a good idea this week whether U.S. negotiators can arrive at a deal that expands our relationship while protecting non-proliferation goals, or whether the United States and India are destined to wind up as ships that passed in the night.

Pakistan has officially signed the 'Bajaur Accord' with Taliban operating in the northwestern Tribal agency. The Taliban promised to prevent 'foreign fighters' from settling and stop cross border attacks into Afghanistan in exchange for freedom from attack and arrest by the Pakistani security forces. This is the third official peace agreement Pakistan has signed with the Taliban since 2005. And like the last two, the al Qaeda affiliated Taliban in Bajaur will not honor their agreement. Bajaur serves as an al Qaeda command and control center and borders Kunar province, the most violent in Afghanistan. The Taliban and al Qaeda have staged attacks into Kunar, Nangahar, and even suicide strikes into Kabul from this agency.

On the same day the agreement was signed, the local chapter of the Bajaur Taliban, known as the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (the TNSM, or Movement for the Implementation of Mohammad's Sharia Law), threatened to conduct a suicide campaign against the Pakistani government if the group's leader, Sufi Mohammed, was not released from custody. The TNSM is one of the most violent and extreme Islamist groups in all of Pakistan.

For an overview of the deteriorating situation in Bajaur and the greater Northwest Frontier Province, check out my article in this week's issue of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.

The Friendship Express, which links the Indian capital with the Pakistani city of Lahore, resumed service in 2004 after a two-year hiatus. Last night, terrorists targeted the train with two IEDs, killing no less than 66 people, mostly Pakistanis, in what many analysts are assuming was an attempt to derail the peace process between those two countries. The Belmont Club's Wretchard posts his thoughts on the attack:

The only -- and trite -- comment I can make is that attacks such as this will continue for the indefinite future. We are in a Long War. A War without Declarations. Perhaps one even without causes. But hopefully one which has an end.

Attacks on innocents have become part and parcel, even a "feature" of extended negotiations between terrorist entities and civil society. For example whenever some kind of peace initiative is attempted between Palestine and Israel, a suicide bombing is inevitably waiting in the wings. Every time the Iraqi government attempts to achieve some reconciliation between factions, a car bomb is readied in some garage to wreak carnage on an unsuspecting marketplace. Killings have become as much a part of the Peace Process as the green baize table. One may speak of the cost of war. But what of the costs of "engagement"? And at what point do they become indistinguishable?

I suppose I should wait for the meaningless expressions of regret from the United Nations and various and sundry humanitarian and European organizations. Followed by the inevitable dark hints that this was caused by the bad international atmospherics created by the United States.

(HT Hugh Hewitt)

Occasional WEEKLY STANDARD contributor Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has posted his take on today's report from the New York Times that al Qaeda has effectively regrouped in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area. Gartenstein-Ross says it should come as little surprise "that the Waziristan Accord--which was signed on September 5, and was designed as a treaty between Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf and tribal leaders--'had been a failure.'" He points to this WEEKLY STANDARD article on the Accord, which he coauthored with Bill Roggio back in October of 2006.

The agreement is, to put it mildly, a boon to the terrorists and a humiliation for the Pakistani government. . . . The accord provides that the Pakistani army will abandon outposts and border crossings throughout Waziristan. Pakistan's military agreed that it will no longer operate in North Waziristan or monitor actions in the region. Pakistan will return weapons and other equipment seized during Pakistani army operations. And the Pakistani government essentially paid a tribute to end the fighting when it agreed to pay compensation for property destroyed during combat -- an unusual move since most of the property that was destroyed belonged to factions that had consciously decided to harbor terrorists. Of particular concern is the provision allowing non-Pakistani militants to continue to reside in Waziristan as long as they promise to "keep the peace." Keeping the peace will, in practice, be defined as refraining from attacks on the Pakistani military. Meanwhile, since the military won't be monitoring the militants' activities, they can plan and train for terrorist attacks or work to bolster the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan without being seen to violate the treaty.

The bottom line: "although analysts now concede that the Waziristan Accord has failed, they aren't discussing what should be done now. Indeed, I have spoken with nobody in policymaking or intelligence circles with a good answer to that question."

On January 18, the United States will deliver the first of eight P3-C Orion aircraft to Pakistan in a deal valued at close to $1.2 billion. The P3-C is a long-range, maritime surveillance aircraft designed for anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare, and will augment, and ultimately replace, Pakistan's current fleet of European-made Atlantique aircraft. In December, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of another deal, valued at close to $900 million, for three additional P3-C aircraft with E2-C Hawkeye 2000 Airborne Early Warning system. The agency asserted that the sale "will not affect the basic military balance in the region."

In addition to the sale of the eight P3-C Orions, the deal will also include "six Phalanx close in weapons systems and an ammunition complement of 2,000 TOW-2A missiles and 14 TOW-2A Fly-to-Buy missiles."

All of this is dwarfed by the already approved sale of 36 F-16s to the Pakistani air force, which is expected to take delivery in 2010, in a deal valued at as much as $3 billion. And Pakistan isn't just buying aircraft. Late last year, the Pakistanis reached an agreement with the French government for the sale of 3 diesel-electric submarines in a deal valued at more than $1 billion. The White House has approved the sale of 130 Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Pakistan to arm the new subs.

It's hard to imagine how such substantial arms transfers, generously subsidized by the American taxpayer as they are (the United States has promised $1.5 billion in military aid over a five year period), won't tip the balance of power in South Asia, and specifically in the Arabian Sea, where the Indian navy has long held an advantage over their Pakistani rivals. In the analysis of one retired Indian naval officer, "the P3C Orion will definitely change the strategic and tactical dimensions of naval warfare in the Arabian Sea."

The P3-C Orion

From AFP:

Islamic extremists "viewed 7/7 (the July 7, 2005 suicide attacks on London's transport network) as just the beginning," an unnamed senior source said….

Britain is seen as an easier threat for Al-Qaeda than many other countries because of its historic links with Pakistan, with tens of thousands of travelers between the two countries each year, the newspaper reported.

"It's all about building up these recruits to consider themselves as Muslim 'patriots' and encouraging them to make the leap and ask themselves 'This is how the west treats Muslims, what are we going to do about it?'", another unnamed source told The Guardian.

AFP reports:

MIRANSHAH, Pakistan -- Pro-Taliban militants beheaded a pro-government tribal elder in Pakistan's restive tribal region bordering Afghanistan, officials said. The body of Loi Khan was found dumped on a road in Garhiyoum, some 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Miranshah, the main town in North Waziristan region, a local official said on Monday.

The man was abducted last week from adjoining South Waziristan, the official said, requesting anonymity.

A note found on the body said the man had been killed as punishment for working as an "informer."

"Anyone found indulging in espionage will meet the same fate," the note said.

Several tribal elders have been shot dead or beheaded this year…

Today's Edmonton Journal reports "several of the young men allegedly went from being typical Muslim adherents to radicalized extremists in little more than a year." The men frequented two Toronto area mosques and at least one opposed Canada's role in Afghanistan. It's also been reported that Canadian intelligence had these mosques under surveillance for some time and presumably has recordings/transcripts of what was being said inside. Did any of the sermons encourage radicalism? What about the literature distributed? If so, do the mosques receive any foreign funding? What about the terror suspects?

In addition, contrary to what Richard Clarke told ABC News yesterday (hat tip: Weekly Standard contributor Dan Darling), the plotters may have connections that extend well beyond the Canadian border. According to the Los Angeles Times,

The senior U.S. law enforcement official said authorities are combing through evidence seized during raids in Canada this weekend to look for possible connections between the 17 suspects arrested Friday and at least 18 other Islamist militants who have been arrested in locations including the United States, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Britain, Denmark and Sweden.

The investigation began as separate probes into what authorities believed were localized cells of militant Muslim young men, who shared an interest in radical ideology on the Internet in various countries and, to a lesser extent, in local mosques and training camps.

But over the past year, the counter-terrorism authorities of those countries began to see connections among the cells, in part through electronic surveillance of phone calls and Internet correspondence, as well as ground surveillance of individual suspects, several U.S. officials said in interviews Sunday.

The Pentagon has released its latest report on the status of the Chinese military, the Washington Post reports today. Its findings:

China's military buildup is increasingly aimed at projecting power far beyond its shores into the western Pacific to be able to interdict U.S. aircraft carriers and other nations' military forces, according to a Pentagon report released yesterday that outlines continued concerns over China's rising strategic influence in Asia....

The People's Liberation Army "is engaged in a sustained effort to interdict, at long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that might deploy to the western Pacific," the report said. Long-term trends in China's development of nuclear and conventional weapons "have the potential to pose credible threats to modern militaries operating in the region," it said....

The report details how the Chinese military is investing in cruise missiles, precision weapons and guidance systems that could target ships, submarines, aircraft and airbases as far away as the "second island chain" including the Mariana Islands and Guam. As part of this strategy, China is buying Russian aircraft, such as the IL-76 transport and IL-78 tanker aircraft, and has shown interest in the Su-33 maritime strike aircraft. China is in the early stages of "developing power projection for other contingencies other than Taiwan," said Peter W. Rodman, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs.

On Taiwan, the report said China had deployed about 100 more short-range ballistic missiles to garrisons opposite the island, increasing the total from 650 to 730 last year to between 710 and 790 now. "The balance between Beijing and Taiwan is heading in the wrong direction," Rodman said, adding that "maybe our job is to be the equalizer if a contingency arises."

Beijing's military build-up is also driving closer relations between the U.S. and India -- a burgeoning relationship designed, in part, to thwart what Heritage Foundation scholars John J. Tkacik Jr. and Dana Dillon discuss in a recent issue of Policy Review.

(See here and here.)

Posted on March 21, 2006:

It would be interesting to know whether the NSA program helped snag Babar and his buddies across the Atlantic. From the BBC:

Seven British citizens had acquired "most of the necessary components" to launch a bombing campaign in the UK, the Old Bailey has heard.

Prosecutor David Waters QC said "pubs, nightclubs and trains" were discussed as potential targets, but police moved in before the plot "reached fruition"....

Mr Waters told the jury they would be hearing from an American citizen, Mohammed Babar, who conspired with the defendants.

Babar has pleaded guilty to terrorism offences in the US and, according to the prosecutor, "has an insight as an insider into the events and plans which an outsider could not have".

It is claimed Babar met several of the defendants in England and in Pakistan, where many of them have family connections.

Mr Waters said the defendants' "principal purpose" in travelling to Pakistan was "to acquire expertise in relation particularly to explosives".

It was during a meeting with Babar that 24-year-old defendant Omar Khyam, from Crawley in West Sussex, allegedly told Babar his targets could include pubs, nightclubs and trains....

The prosecutor said Mr Khyam and co-defendant Salahuddin Amin, 31, from Luton in Bedfordshire, both told Babar they worked for a man who they claimed was "number three in al-Qaeda".

Frequent Weekly Standard contributor Dan Twining emailed his thoughts on one of the most underreported economic stories out there. While China gets most of the attention on the business pages, India has quietly positioned itself to be a dominant player in the 21st century world economy. In fact, MIT's Yasheng Huang argues that India "might be more competitive than China" in the years ahead.

Twining observes:

China's rise is changing the economic and strategic landscapes in Asia and beyond. But the rise of India is an equally compelling story, and one that promises to have similarly tectonic effects on the world economy and the global security order. In this piece, MIT professor Yasheng Huang picks apart some of the "China myths" prevalent among Western and Asian analysts -- myths that have obscured India's emerging dynamism and potential to outperform China in the long run. He even twists on its head the conventional wisdom that India should model its economic reforms on China's. Instead, he urges the Chinese government to take a close look on India's emphasis on education, transparency, and governance. "Unless China embarks on bold institutional reforms," he writes, "India may very well outperform it in the next 20 years."

Frequent Weekly Standard contributor Dan Twining emails his thoughts on one of the most underreported economic stories out there. While China gets most of the attention on the business pages, India has quietly positioned itself to be a dominant player in the 21st century world economy. If fact, MIT's Yasheng Huang argues that India "might be more competitive than China" in the years ahead.

Twining observes:

China's rise is changing the economic and strategic landscapes in Asia and beyond. But the rise of India is an equally compelling story, and one that promises to have similarly tectonic effects on the world economy and the global security order. In this piece, MIT professor Yasheng Huang picks apart some of the "China myths" prevalent among Western and Asian analysts -- myths that have obscured India's emerging dynamism and potential to outperform China in the long run. He even twists on its head the conventional wisdom that India should model its economic reforms on China's. Instead, he urges the Chinese government to take a close look on India's emphasis on education, transparency, and governance. "Unless China embarks on bold institutional reforms," he writes, "India may very well outperform it in the next 20 years."