Is Allen Able . . .
To beat Kaine?
Oct 29, 2012, Vol. 18, No. 07 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Tim Kaine and George Allen in their first debate, September 20
These days, the future looks a little brighter for Allen. He may be on his way to reclaiming the Virginia Senate seat he lost six years ago. His defeat by fewer than 10,000 votes to Democrat Jim Webb (who declined to run for reelection in 2012) came in a terrible year for Republicans nationally. And during that race, Allen’s image seemed irrevocably damaged after video surfaced of the senator referring to a Democratic staffer with an obscure alleged ethnic slur at a campaign rally. It was a devastating defeat, but Allen hasn’t focused on the loss.
“The way I’m looking at this is not back. What I’m doing is looking forward,” Allen told me in June.
Forward, that is, to a race that has remained tight. The Old Dominion elected Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008, its first Democratic vote for president since 1964. What’s more, in the last decade, the state has elected two Democratic governors and two Democratic senators. But the subsequent cycles saw a comeback for the GOP, first in the statewide elections in 2009 and then in the federal midterms in 2010. This year, Virginia is a bona fide swing state, and the close Senate battle is a prime example.
If Allen hopes to return to Capitol Hill, he’ll have to win the critical outer suburbs of Northern
Allen has run a straightforward, unremarkable campaign. His simple message echoes the broadly conservative GOP agenda: keep taxes low, reduce spending, maintain a strong national defense (he’s hit Kaine on his support of the debt deal that led to the possibility of defense budget sequestration), and repeal Obamacare.
That could be enough. Public polls show Kaine is running even with Obama, while Allen is lagging about two points behind Romney. But Jonathan Collegio of American Crossroads, the super-PAC that runs ads on behalf of conservative candidates, says their internal polling and focus groups indicate Kaine may be running behind Obama. Allen, too, may be doing better than the stories the polls tell. That’s made the race a top priority of American Crossroads. “I would venture that we’ve spent as much there as anywhere,” says Collegio.
Allen is spending a lot of time on the trail and in his debate performances touting his four-year tenure as governor in the mid-1990s. He passed conservative reforms of welfare and education, while attracting new high-tech businesses to the state. A recent article in the Richmond Times-Dispatch called him “one of Virginia’s most accomplished modern governors,” a designation Allen made sure to mention in the Richmond debate.
The 54-year-old Kaine, on the other hand, left the governor’s mansion at the beginning of 2010 with a multimillion--dollar hole in the state’s two-year -budget amidst a bad recession. Kaine, a practicing Catholic whose wife is the daughter of A. Linwood Holton (the first Republican governor of Virginia since Reconstruction), had a reputation as a moderate Democrat in the vein of his predecessor, Mark Warner. That was tarnished when, in 2009, the last year of his governorship, he also served as chairman of the Democratic National Committee—an explicitly partisan role—at the behest of President Obama.
Kaine, however, appears to have recognized a strategic opening: Appeal to those swing voters willing to split their ballots between a moderate conservative like Mitt Romney and a pro-choice, pro-defense liberal like, well, Tim Kaine. Democrats believe there are more “Romney-Kaine” voters than “Obama-Allen” ones. So rather than make a case for robust, Obama-era liberalism, Kaine has remodeled himself as a bipartisan pragmatist.
In the Richmond debate, he pledged to “always be a partner of the president of the United States, whoever that president is.” He plugged his work not only with President Obama but also with President Bush. A recent ad features Kaine standing alongside his fellow Democrat Mark Warner, who was elected to the Senate in 2008 and has earned some bipartisan credibility on energy and defense issues. “We’ll be a great team in Washington,” says Kaine, beaming.
Kaine has deflected questions about whether he would support Harry Reid, the Nevada Democrat, to continue as majority leader. “It’s too early to talk about leadership questions,” Kaine told reporters after the debate in Richmond, even though it’s utterly implausible he would vote for the alternative, Republican Mitch McConnell.
On policy, he vows to protect popular spending, like Social Security, defense, and public broadcasting, while on taxes, Kaine claims his position splits the difference between the parties. Republicans want to extend the Bush tax rates on millionaires and billionaires (and everyone else, he’ll rarely say), while Democrats want to let tax cuts expire for those making over $250,000 a year. Kaine offers a “compromise”: Let them expire for income over $500,000.
“There’s no theology or magic to that number,” Kaine recently told a small group of seniors in Fairfax. “But it’s a number that is a compromise.”
He’s also a huge fan of women. At a rally for Obama at George Mason University, nearly a hundred women sat on risers behind Kaine as he spoke, a perfect backdrop for the TV cameras.
“My opponent was asked about some of his, frankly, extreme views on issues relating to women’s health,” Kaine said. “I gotta tell you, as a husband and father, I know that what we’re referring to aren’t just women’s issues or social issues. They’re family issues and they’re economic issues.”
How is this repositioning working? Kaine has led Allen in 12 of the last 14 polls of the race, sometimes by as much as 10 points. Since September, some polls have shown Kaine breaking the 50 percent threshold of support. But according to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Kaine is ahead by only 2.2 points. Indeed, throughout the campaign, each boomlet for Kaine has been followed by a recalibration of the race at a statistical tie.
Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, says Virginia’s is the one Senate race in the country that will be determined by the presidential race. “Democrats have Kaine up a couple of points, Republicans have Allen up a couple of points,” she says. “Call it even.”
“Even” isn’t a great position for Allen to stage a political comeback. But with Romney on the rise in Virginia and groups like American Crossroads continuing to pour money into the state, it isn’t all that bad, either.
Michael Warren is a reporter at The Weekly Standard.
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