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Final Quinnipiac Poll: McAuliffe 46, Cuccinelli 40, Sarvis 8 (Updated)

8:38 AM, Nov 4, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
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A final poll from Quinnipiac on Tuesday's gubernatorial race in Virginia shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a six-point lead over Republican rival Ken Cuccinelli. Forty-six percent of likely Virginia voters say they will vote for McAuliffe, according to the poll, while 40 percent say they'll vote for Cuccinelli. Eight percent say they will vote for the Libertarian party candidate, Robert Sarvis. Here's more from Quinnipiac:

There is a large gender gap as McAuliffe leads 50 - 36 percent among women, with 9 percent for Sarvis, while men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 8 percent for Sarvis. Democrats go 93 - 1 percent for McAuliffe, with 3 percent for Sarvis, while Republicans go 85 - 5 percent for Cuccinelli, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 40 - 40 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.

Without Sarvis in the race, McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 49 percent to 42 percent.

The Real Clear Politics poll average gives McAuliffe a six-point lead over Cuccinelli. In the final day of campaigning, McAuliffe will be joined by Vice President Joe Biden, while Cuccinelli is rallying with Florida senator Marco Rubio and former Texas congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Update: Cuccinelli campaign manager Chris LaCavita points out a disparity in the demographics of Quinnipiac's last two polls:

— Chris LaCivita (@LaCivitaC) November 4, 2013

Indeed, while Monday's poll found an electorate that was 32 percent Democratic, 27 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent, the Quinnipiac poll from last week (which showed a closer race between the Democrat and Republican) was 29 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent.

Could Monday's six-point lead for McAuliffe reflect a much more Democratic electorate than will show up Tuesday at the polls? Or did high-profile appearances by national Democratic leaders like President Barack Obama boost Democratic enthusiasm?

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