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Morning Jay: A Pledge To America, Delaware, the Blanche Lincoln Award for "Most Doomed House Democrat," and More!

6:30 AM, Sep 23, 2010 • By JAY COST
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What’s going on here? I can think of two possibilities. First, the Senate really is a collegial place and Murkowski’s colleagues just didn’t have the heart to boot her like that.  Second, it’s a risk averse move. What happens if she actually pulls it out in Alaska? You don’t want her caucusing with the Democrats.  If she retains her ranking minority member position through the 111th Congress, she’ll be in a position to be committee chair in the 112th Congress, which might be vital if the goal is to get her to vote with the Republicans in organizing the Senate. And if she wins, that will definitely be Mitch McConnell's goal.

4. In Case You Were Wondering... Blanche Lincoln's chances of being elected Arkansas's next senator are still about as good as my chances of being the next American Idol: 

Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a key player in U.S. financial regulation legislation, remains far behind in an uphill battle for re-election on November 2, a Reuters-Ipsos poll found on Wednesday.

It is only a slight improvement for the Democrat since a July poll had her behind by a 54 percent to 35 percent margin, and it is the latest evidence that Lincoln is suffering from the same anti-incumbency wave that other politicians are grappling with in this volatile year of high unemployment.

Republican John Boozman, a member of the House of Representatives, holds a hefty 14-point lead among likely voters of 53 percent to 39 percent for Lincoln.

5. The Blanche Lincoln Award For "Most Doomed House Democrat" Goes To... None other than Tom Perriello of Virginia's Fifth Congressional District!  He won his district in 2008 by a little under 800 votes even as John McCain carried it by 7,000  Once in Congress, he proceeded to vote for cap-and-trade and health care (twice).  His goose is totally, completely cooked.  How do I know this?  He keeps releasing polls that show him trailing his Republican opponent. That's a very peculiar campaign tactic, but when public polling shows you down 25, you don't really have much of a choice!

 6. Another Brutal Poll for Dems from SurveyUSA.  Oh my:

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton's term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, with Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

In New York's general election for US Senate, incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer leads Republican Jay Townsend 54% to 33%.

Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC but trails elsewhere.

Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out

Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

SurveyUSA has had some atrocious numbers for Democrats this year, and they must really be hoping that the polling outfit is wide of the mark.  It has a good track record, though... 

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