Poll: Obama Has Big Leads in Swing States
But are Democrats oversampled?
11:05 AM, Sep 26, 2012 • By MICHAEL WARREN
President Barack Obama is far ahead of Mitt Romney in three important swing states, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama leads Romney by 12 points in Pennsylvania (54 percent to 42 percent), by 10 points in Ohio (53 percent to 43 percent), and by 9 points in Florida (53 percent to 44 percent). Obama also has an advantage over Romney in those states on many issues, including who would be best to handle the economy.
Here's more from Quinnipiac:
But as Jay Cost notes this morning, many polls may be oversampling Democrats relative to their actual turnout in November. Here are the partisan breakdowns for these latest polls: In Florida, Quinnipiac sampled 36 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans, and 33 percent independents; in Ohio, the sample was 35 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans, and 35 percent independents; and in Pennsylvania, the sample was 39 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republican, and 27 percent independent.
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