Madison, Wis. Sitting in front of an oversized HD television in the basement of the governor’s residence, a relaxed Scott Walker settles in to wait for Barack Obama to begin the first State of the Union address of his second term.
Ephraim, Wisc. At an appearance last week at a high school in Cascade, Iowa, a half hour drive from the Wisconsin border, Barack Obama told the crowd gathered to see him that he’d take questions from anyone who had one. There was one exception – a gentleman wearing a Green Bay Packers t-shirt.
Here's an indication of just how impressive and broad-based Scott Walker's 7-point win was last night: If the Democratic strongholds of Dane County and Milwaukee County had 100 percent turnout of registered voters, and every other county remained the same, Walker still would have won the state by more than 100,000 votes.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee released this web ad last night, placing Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin on the losing side of the Wisconsin recall effort:
As the spot shows, Baldwin was an early and big supporter of the recall election. And, of course, last night's results show Baldwin's belief on this issue is not in line with the majority of Wisconsinites, who reelected Republican Scott Walker by 7 percentage point margin.
The early draft of the exit polls this morning showed a 50-50 tie in the Wisconsin recall race. It's still early, but the best bet is that Scott Walker meets or exceeds his margins relative to 2010, which points to a 5-point win or better. This suggests that the early draft of the exit polls were biased toward the Democrats.